No. I · Vol. I
Tuesday, May 12, 2026

The Ledger

A paper-trading practice in the tradition of weekly Sunday charts.

Portfolio
$997,473
-$2,527 (-0.25%)
Markets
DIA-0.01%IWM-1.59%QQQ-1.73%SPY-0.61%VXX-0.60%IEF-0.33%GLD-1.21%USO+3.72%UUP+0.48%DIA-0.01%IWM-1.59%QQQ-1.73%SPY-0.61%VXX-0.60%IEF-0.33%GLD-1.21%USO+3.72%UUP+0.48%
Wires·
Standing by — markets watched, no fresh items.

Agent I — Immutable

Connecting…

Fixed methodology, held for 365 days

Market: NASDAQ · Started with $100,000

Equity
$99,232
Cash
$1,254
Positions
$97,978
10 open
Total P/L
-$768
−0.77%
Closed Trades
0
none yet
Realized P/L
+$0
Win Rate

How this agent thinks

Plain English. Skip the jargon, read this first.

Picks 10 NASDAQ stocks at a time using a 40-year-old method called Weinstein Stage Analysis. The basic idea: a stock that's been rising steadily for months is likely to keep rising; a stock that's been falling is likely to keep falling. The agent measures this by comparing today's price to a 30-week average. When price is comfortably above that average AND the average itself is rising, it buys. When price is below and the average is falling, it shorts. If a position loses 15%, it sells — no exceptions, no second-guessing. The whole experiment is to see if a fixed, mechanical system can produce real returns without anyone meddling with the rules.

Methodology

The rules as a quant trader would describe them.

Trades NASDAQ stocks using Weinstein-style stage analysis with a frozen rule set.

  • Targets 10 simultaneous positions — six long, four short, equal-weighted at $10,000 each.
  • Longs enter on Stage 2 advances: price above a rising 30-week (150-day) MA, prefer recent breakouts with volume confirmation, filter out anything overextended (>40% above the MA).
  • Shorts enter on Stage 4 declines: price below a falling 30-week MA. Avoid names already >50% off their highs unless the breakdown is fresh.
  • Hard stops: -15% from entry, or a clean break of the 30-week MA on volume. 365-day time stop on every position.
  • Per-run cap of 2 closures + 2 entries so the book ramps in over ~5 trading days rather than opening all at once. Methodology is locked at day 0 — the same rules apply for the full 365-day evaluation window.

Universe: NASDAQ-listed, 100-name starter set (>$2B cap, >1M ADV) · Capital: $100,000

Currently held (10)

Every position this agent has open right now, with the thesis it logged at entry.

  • CTSHshortopened May 11, 2026+$47
    206 sh @ $48.32 · current $48.09 · stop $55.57

    Stage 4: close $48.32 < MA150 $70.19 (-31.2%), MA falling, 44.5% off 52w high, vol 0.04× avg

  • MSFTshortopened May 11, 2026+$98
    24 sh @ $412.62 · current $408.55 · stop $474.51

    Stage 4: close $412.62 < MA150 $449.24 (-8.2%), MA falling, 25.7% off 52w high, vol 0.04× avg

  • METAshortopened May 11, 2026-$10
    16 sh @ $598.71 · current $599.33 · stop $688.52

    Stage 4: close $598.71 < MA150 $649.49 (-7.8%), MA falling, 24.8% off 52w high, vol 0.06× avg

  • NFLXshortopened May 11, 2026-$256
    117 sh @ $85.43 · current $87.62 · stop $98.24

    Stage 4: close $85.43 < MA150 $97.34 (-12.2%), MA falling, 36.3% off 52w high, vol 0.12× avg

  • AAPLlongopened May 11, 2026+$49
    34 sh @ $292.75 · current $294.19 · stop $248.84

    Stage 2: close $292.75 > MA150 $265.64 (+10.2%), MA rising, 0.7% off 52w high, vol 0.05× avg

  • AMZNlongopened May 11, 2026-$181
    37 sh @ $268.98 · current $264.08 · stop $228.63

    Stage 2: close $268.98 > MA150 $229.41 (+17.2%), MA rising, 3.4% off 52w high, vol 0.06× avg

  • NVDAlongopened May 10, 2026-$66
    45 sh @ $219.45 · current $217.99 · stop $186.53

    Stage 2: close $219.45 > MA150 $187.25 (+17.2%), MA rising, 1.3% off 52w high, vol 0.06× avg

  • AVGOlongopened May 10, 2026-$359
    23 sh @ $428.35 · current $412.74 · stop $364.10

    Stage 2: close $428.35 > MA150 $352.90 (+21.4%), MA rising, 2.1% off 52w high, vol 0.06× avg

  • GOOGLlongopened May 10, 2026-$94
    25 sh @ $388.60 · current $384.86 · stop $330.31

    Stage 2: close $388.60 > MA150 $309.39 (+25.6%), MA rising, 3.3% off 52w high, vol 0.07× avg

  • CSCOlongopened May 10, 2026+$3
    101 sh @ $98.68 · current $98.71 · stop $83.88

    Stage 2: close $98.68 > MA150 $78.42 (+25.8%), MA rising, 0.1% off 52w high, vol 0.16× avg

Recent decisions — acted

Entries, exits, rotations the agent committed to.

  1. May 12, 11:04 AMCTSHentry

    Stage 4: close $48.32 < MA150 $70.19 (-31.2%), MA falling, 44.5% off 52w high, vol 0.04× avg

  2. May 12, 10:25 AMMSFTentry

    Stage 4: close $412.62 < MA150 $449.24 (-8.2%), MA falling, 25.7% off 52w high, vol 0.04× avg

  3. May 12, 10:25 AMNFLXentry

    Stage 4: close $85.43 < MA150 $97.34 (-12.2%), MA falling, 36.3% off 52w high, vol 0.12× avg

  4. May 12, 10:25 AMMETAentry

    Stage 4: close $598.71 < MA150 $649.49 (-7.8%), MA falling, 24.8% off 52w high, vol 0.06× avg

  5. May 11, 11:54 PMAMZNentry

    Stage 2: close $268.98 > MA150 $229.41 (+17.2%), MA rising, 3.4% off 52w high, vol 0.06× avg

  6. May 11, 11:54 PMAAPLentry

    Stage 2: close $292.75 > MA150 $265.64 (+10.2%), MA rising, 0.7% off 52w high, vol 0.05× avg

  7. May 11, 5:38 PMAVGOentry

    Stage 2: close $428.35 > MA150 $352.90 (+21.4%), MA rising, 2.1% off 52w high, vol 0.06× avg

  8. May 11, 5:38 PMNVDAentry

    Stage 2: close $219.45 > MA150 $187.25 (+17.2%), MA rising, 1.3% off 52w high, vol 0.06× avg

  9. May 11, 5:38 PMGOOGLentry

    Stage 2: close $388.60 > MA150 $309.39 (+25.6%), MA rising, 3.3% off 52w high, vol 0.07× avg

  10. May 11, 5:38 PMCSCOentry

    Stage 2: close $98.68 > MA150 $78.42 (+25.8%), MA rising, 0.1% off 52w high, vol 0.16× avg

Recently considered — skipped

Candidates the agent looked at and chose not to act on. The rationale tells you what it weighed.

  1. May 12, 1:09 PMno_entries

    Already at target 10 positions; no entries.

  2. May 12, 11:06 AMno_entries

    Already at target 10 positions; no entries.

  3. May 12, 11:04 AMFTNTconsidered

    Stage 2: close $114.47 > MA150 $82.89 (+38.1%), MA rising, 1.5% off 52w high, vol 0.03× avg

  4. May 12, 11:04 AMCBOEconsidered

    Stage 2: close $354.12 > MA150 $273.12 (+29.7%), MA rising, 0.1% off 52w high, vol 0.09× avg

  5. May 12, 11:04 AMNXPIconsidered

    Stage 2: close $292.61 > MA150 $222.31 (+31.6%), MA rising, 4.5% off 52w high, vol 0.05× avg

  6. May 12, 11:04 AMGOOGconsidered

    Stage 2: close $384.42 > MA150 $310.11 (+24.0%), MA rising, 3.5% off 52w high, vol 0.01× avg

  7. May 12, 11:04 AMROKUconsidered

    Stage 2: close $125.99 > MA150 $102.07 (+23.4%), MA rising, 4.1% off 52w high, vol 0.02× avg

  8. May 12, 11:04 AMAMATconsidered

    Stage 2: close $419.50 > MA150 $309.65 (+35.5%), MA rising, 6.5% off 52w high, vol 0.04× avg

  9. May 12, 11:04 AMLRCXconsidered

    Stage 2: close $280.30 > MA150 $203.81 (+37.5%), MA rising, 6.6% off 52w high, vol 0.02× avg

  10. May 12, 11:04 AMSBUXconsidered

    Stage 2: close $106.34 > MA150 $91.52 (+16.2%), MA rising, 1.6% off 52w high, vol 0.02× avg

  11. May 12, 11:04 AMZMconsidered

    Stage 2: close $103.34 > MA150 $85.72 (+20.6%), MA rising, 7.4% off 52w high, vol 0.04× avg

  12. May 12, 11:04 AMGEHCconsidered

    Stage 4: close $61.94 < MA150 $76.49 (-19.0%), MA falling, 31.0% off 52w high, vol 0.02× avg

  13. May 12, 10:25 AMCOSTconsidered

    Stage 2: close $999.28 > MA150 $952.12 (+5.0%), MA rising, 6.4% off 52w high, vol 0.14× avg

  14. May 12, 10:25 AMMSFTconsidered

    Stage 4: close $412.62 < MA150 $449.24 (-8.2%), MA falling, 25.7% off 52w high, vol 0.04× avg

  15. May 12, 10:25 AMCOSTconsidered

    Stage 2: close $999.28 > MA150 $952.12 (+5.0%), MA rising, 6.4% off 52w high, vol 0.14× avg

Watching (0)

Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.

Nothing on the watchlist right now.

Relevant news

Recent headlines on the tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.

  1. May 11, 2:53 PMAAPLvia finnhub

    Sector Update: Tech Stocks Rise Late Afternoon

  2. May 11, 2:53 PMMETAvia finnhub

    Sector Update: Tech Stocks Rise Late Afternoon

  3. May 11, 2:53 PMMSFTvia finnhub

    Microsoft CEO says he was never given 'clarity' on why Altman was fired from OpenAI during Musk trial

  4. May 11, 2:51 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Big tech earnings reinforce strength of AI demand across chips, cloud and software: Wedbush

  5. May 11, 2:51 PMGOOGLvia finnhub

    Big tech earnings reinforce strength of AI demand across chips, cloud and software: Wedbush

  6. May 11, 2:51 PMAMZNvia finnhub

    Big tech earnings reinforce strength of AI demand across chips, cloud and software: Wedbush

  7. May 11, 2:51 PMMSFTvia finnhub

    Big tech earnings reinforce strength of AI demand across chips, cloud and software: Wedbush

  8. May 11, 2:49 PMMSFTvia finnhub

    Former OpenAI executive Sutskever discloses nearly $7 billion stake in AI firm

  9. May 11, 2:34 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    XRP Price Prediction: Where Will XRP Be in 1 Year?

  10. May 11, 2:25 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    President Trump's Golden Dome Missile Shield Just Got $3.2 Billion Bigger

  11. May 11, 2:24 PMMETAvia finnhub

    Meta Sued by California County Over ‘Scam’ Advertisements

  12. May 11, 2:15 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Circle Internet Stock Is Up 68% in 2026: Is It Outperforming Other Crypto Stocks Like Strategy and Bitmine?

  13. May 11, 2:14 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Stock Market Today: Dow Up; Intel Gain Reaches 260%; Dividend Play Tests Entry (Live Coverage)

  14. May 11, 2:03 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Texas Capital Wealth Management Increases TCBI Holdings

  15. May 11, 1:59 PMAAPLvia finnhub

    Why One Fund Made a $23 Million Bet on This Addiction-Treatment Stock Amid a Staggering Rally

  16. May 11, 1:59 PMGOOGLvia finnhub

    Why One Fund Made a $23 Million Bet on This Addiction-Treatment Stock Amid a Staggering Rally

  17. May 11, 1:50 PMCSCOvia finnhub

    Nearly 40% of Trump’s China CEO Delegation Have Crypto Ties

  18. May 11, 1:50 PMMETAvia finnhub

    Nearly 40% of Trump’s China CEO Delegation Have Crypto Ties

  19. May 11, 1:50 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    2 Aerospace Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next 20 Years

  20. May 11, 1:25 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Alphabet Is on the Brink of Beating NVIDIA in Market Value: ETFs to Buy

  21. May 11, 1:25 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    1 Magnificent Dividend Stock Down 8% to Buy and Hold Forever

  22. May 11, 1:25 PMGOOGLvia finnhub

    Alphabet Is on the Brink of Beating NVIDIA in Market Value: ETFs to Buy

  23. May 11, 1:24 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Alphabet Is Issuing Bonds in Yen. Why Not?

  24. May 11, 1:24 PMGOOGLvia finnhub

    Alphabet Is Issuing Bonds in Yen. Why Not?

  25. May 11, 1:24 PMAMZNvia finnhub

    Alphabet Is Issuing Bonds in Yen. Why Not?

  26. May 11, 1:17 PMMSFTvia finnhub

    Dooap Inc. Launches Dooap Studio: Putting Agentic AP Automation Directly in the Hands of Finance Teams

  27. May 11, 1:15 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Hyperliquid Is Trending Again. But Should You Buy the Coin?

  28. May 11, 1:05 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Which S&P500 stocks are the most active on Monday?

  29. May 11, 1:04 PMCSCOvia finnhub

    Equities Rise Intraday, Oil Jumps as Markets Montior Middle East Developments

  30. May 11, 1:04 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Equities Rise Intraday, Oil Jumps as Markets Montior Middle East Developments

Macro & geopolitical context

High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe or asset class.

  1. May 12, 12:40 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Stock market rallies despite U.S.-Iran conflict entering third month.

  2. May 12, 12:32 PMsector · severity 3/5

    AI-accelerated cyberattacks strengthen investment case for cybersecurity stocks.

  3. May 12, 12:21 PMpolicy · severity 4/5

    US Appeals court temporarily pauses ruling against Trump's proposed 10% tariffs.

  4. May 12, 11:39 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Iran conflict disrupts shipping, driving freight costs higher and threatening Zimbabwe agricultural exports.

  5. May 12, 9:33 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Bitcoin volatility spikes as US CPI hits multiyear highs from oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.

  6. May 12, 9:00 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    North Korea-linked hackers stole $2.06B in 2025 crypto thefts using advanced infiltration tactics.

  7. May 12, 8:38 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Pentagon reports $29 billion cumulative costs from US military operations in Iran.

  8. May 12, 8:20 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran conflict creates economic and political risks during Trump's China diplomatic engagement.

  9. May 12, 5:42 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Middle East ceasefire negotiations remain fragile amid ongoing regional tensions.

  10. May 12, 4:40 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Escalating drone warfare in Lebanon complicates prospects for Iran diplomatic resolution.

  11. May 12, 4:28 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran lawmaker warns of weapons-grade uranium enrichment if military attack occurs.

  12. May 11, 11:53 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Google reports AI-powered zero-day attack targeting admin tools with 2FA bypass.

    Tickers:GOOGLGOOG
  13. May 11, 11:25 PMpolicy · severity 3/5

    U.S. Senate Banking Committee unveils Clarity Act for cryptocurrency regulatory framework.

  14. May 11, 9:55 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Indian rupee faces depreciation pressure from potential US-Iran conflict escalation.

  15. May 11, 9:08 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Trump heads to China seeking diplomatic and political wins after Iran tensions.

Closed trades (0)

Every position this agent has closed, win or lose.

No closed trades yet.

Recent runs

Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.

  1. May 12, 1:09 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
  2. May 12, 11:06 AMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
  3. May 12, 11:04 AMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 1 entry. 10 candidates considered.
  4. May 12, 10:25 AMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 1 entry. 1 candidates considered.
  5. May 12, 10:25 AMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 2 entries. 2 candidates considered.
  6. May 11, 11:54 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 2 entries. 4 candidates considered.
  7. May 11, 5:38 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 2 entries. 6 candidates considered.
  8. May 11, 5:38 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 2 entries. 8 candidates considered.