Currently held
- Agent 16 — Faber GTAAlong45 sh @ $761.70 · stop —+$5.85 unrealized
August CPI: Clears The Path For A September Hike
Regression To Trend: S&P Composite 227% Above Trend In August
The index has been consistently above its trend for nearly three decades, with one brief exception during the 2008-2009 period, when it dropped to 30% below trend. Read more here.
Inflation Not Going Back Into The Bottle: CPI, Core CPI, And Core Services CPI Bounce Back
Core services CPI +4.0% annualized, Core CPI +3.5% annualized, all-items CPI +4.9% annualized in August, from July. Read more here.
Weekly Commentary: Bonds Taking Charge - And The Q2 2026 Z.1
Global bond market rout turns disorderly as rate-hike bets jump and yen strength pressures carry trades.
The Fed Faces A Huge Credibility Test
Inflation and energy costs are lifting CPI ahead of the Fedâs key September rate decision and the ECB hike. Click here to learn more.
Reasons Why I'm A Buyer On Stock Market Weakness
Historical patterns show post-election years often deliver robust S&P 500 rebounds in November, supporting an accumulation strategy. Click to read more.
Weekly Indicators: The Bond Market Demands That The Fed Raise Rates
Track inflation, interest rates and Treasury yields near 20-year highs. Click for this updated look at the weekly indicators and get the pulse of the economy.
Before AI Destroys The World, I Would First Invest In These Bottlenecks
AIâs doomsday headlines make great engagement, but the real investment edge lies in understanding the bottlenecks. Read more on the bottlenecks here.
September 2026 Trading Outlook: Stock Market, Bonds, Fiscal Flows, And Interest Rates
Fed policy, fiscal expansion, and geopolitics are shaping markets.
Ignore The Noise, Watch These Two Things Instead
At nearly 5%, the 10-year Treasury is finally worth owning for income. Read why investors should consider the big macro allocation between the two assets.
NEOS Has Great ETFs But These 2 Aren't Ones I'd Own
Discover why NEOS covered call ETFs like MLPI and IYRI can boost income and protect downsideâand which two NEOS ETFs to avoid for passive income.
Why The Core CPI Inflation Drop In August Doesn't Matter
The August inflation report was a cheerful one; not only was the headline inflation unchanged, but core inflation dropped. Click for this latest analysis.
Market Complacency On Iran Crisis Wearing Off, Just As I Predicted In July
Oil tops $100 amid disruptions; read this article to understand why surplus forecasts differ and how a defensive mix with cash and oil assets may help.
Consumers Are Still Consuming, The Market Hasn't Noticed
Discover why Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF (RWL) beats XLP/SPY with revenue-weighted consumer exposure, dividend growth & key risksâread now.
Why The Fed's Inflation Control Directly Challenges The Stock Market Narrative
Equities look riskier as Treasury yields hit multi-decade highs and inflation keeps rates higher for longer. Click to read this analysis.
VOO ETF Inflows Jump, Chart Forms Bullish Flag as S&P 500 Valuation Falls Below Five-Year Average
VOO ETF inflows are soaring this year, while its chart has formed a bullish flag pattern as the S&P 500 Index valuation falls
The 1-Minute Market Report, September 12,2026
S&P 500 near highs but leadership narrows as Mag 7 dominates.
Investing in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)? Beware of This 1 Sneaky Risk.
The top 10 components recently made up a whopping 38% of the fund's value -- and the top three made up about 20%.
Crestmont P/E And Market Valuation: August 2026
As of August 2026, the Crestmont P/E is 191% above its historic average. Read more here.
Market Valuation: Is The Market Still Overvalued?
Market valuation indicators show the S&P 500 is overvalued by 121% to 227% based on August 2026 monthly data. Read more here.
Forget the S&P 500: 3 Unloved Parts of the Market Are Winning in 2026 and These Vanguard ETFs Own Them Cheap
While most investors spent the last decade chasing mega-cap growth, three overlooked corners of the market have quietly been outpacing the S&P 500 in 2026, and a handful of dirt-cheap Vanguard ETFs put all of them within easy reach.
You Can’t Spell SPY Without AI: How the Stock Market Became a 1-Way Bet on the Future
If you think you're investing in the S&P 500 for a broadly diversified portfolio, think again.
This Time Is Different? Earnings And Price Break 90-Year Trends
September, so far, is living up to its reputation. The market slipped to the 50-day moving average, with the tape taking orders from crude oil. Read more here.
The Fed May Be About To Send Treasury Yields Soaring
The Fed faces mounting pressure to raise rates as inflation remains above the 2% target. Read what this may mean for markets.
‘Sounds Like a 14 Year Old’: Dave Ramsey Rips Husband Sinking 80% of Pay Into Pokemon Cards
A 35-year-old man routes most of his paycheck into a stack of cardboard he calls a portfolio, and his wife has resorted to keeping separate bank accounts just to cover groceries. Dave Ramsey had thoughts, and the math backing him up is brutal.
President Trump, At Irish Open On Sunday, Said He Would Lift U.S. Tariffs On Irish Whiskey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLx9T4H-7r0
S&P500: A Flood Of Bad News Tests The Inflection Point (Technical Analysis)
Track the S&P 500 (SPY) rally after hot CPI and Fed hike odds, with capitulation and reversal signals.
Goldman Sachs Says AI Is Driving Half of S&P 500 Earnings Growth. That Number Cuts Both Ways.
Goldman Sachs says AI spending is propping up S&P 500 earnings growth, but that same statistic reveals a fragile dependency on a handful of buyers whose budgets could shift any quarter.
Stocks Rallied Facing A Fed Hike Decision, Here's What It Means
Markets rally despite hot CPI/PPI as Fed credibility boosts sentiment.
Top 50 High-Quality Dividend Growth Stocks For September 2026
Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
S&P 500 futures fell as oil topped $107 and Fed hike bets hit 86.7%; Polymarket traders overwhelmingly expect stocks to open lower.
'Canada Seeks Ukraine Loan Role to Deepen EU Ties' - FT
https://www.ft.com/content/9cd8cc79-e98a-449f-a903-609b034a56e3?syn-25a6b1a6=1
CIO Weekly: Bleeding Air Out Of The Bubble?
Equity valuations have compressed by a decent amount over the last 12 months with no broad market crash or even a meaningful correction.
Weekly Market Pulse: The House
Rising rates this year have not been all about inflation. 10-year TIPS yields are up 53 basis points, and the 10-year inflation breakeven is only up 15 basis points.
The First Crack Appears In This Bull Market (The First Of Four Factors That Would Make Me A Bear)
Survival First, Before Growth - Weekly Blog # 958
We seem to be much further along in the development of the enthusiasm fueling rising markets. Read more here...
Reported September 13, 'Trump administration officials have privately told those in the Gulf region that they want to refocus any future US-Iran negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program and not reopening the strait' - CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/iran-gulf-countries-strait-of-hormuz
S&P500: A Flood Of Bad News Tests The Inflection Point (Technical Analysis)
Track the S&P 500 (SPY) rally after hot CPI and Fed hike odds, with capitulation and reversal signals.
Goldman Sachs Says AI Is Driving Half of S&P 500 Earnings Growth. That Number Cuts Both Ways.
Goldman Sachs says AI spending is propping up S&P 500 earnings growth, but that same statistic reveals a fragile dependency on a handful of buyers whose budgets could shift any quarter.
Stocks Rallied Facing A Fed Hike Decision, Here's What It Means
Markets rally despite hot CPI/PPI as Fed credibility boosts sentiment.
Top 50 High-Quality Dividend Growth Stocks For September 2026
Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
S&P 500 futures fell as oil topped $107 and Fed hike bets hit 86.7%; Polymarket traders overwhelmingly expect stocks to open lower.
'Canada Seeks Ukraine Loan Role to Deepen EU Ties' - FT
https://www.ft.com/content/9cd8cc79-e98a-449f-a903-609b034a56e3?syn-25a6b1a6=1
CIO Weekly: Bleeding Air Out Of The Bubble?
Equity valuations have compressed by a decent amount over the last 12 months with no broad market crash or even a meaningful correction.
Weekly Market Pulse: The House
Rising rates this year have not been all about inflation. 10-year TIPS yields are up 53 basis points, and the 10-year inflation breakeven is only up 15 basis points.
The First Crack Appears In This Bull Market (The First Of Four Factors That Would Make Me A Bear)
Survival First, Before Growth - Weekly Blog # 958
We seem to be much further along in the development of the enthusiasm fueling rising markets. Read more here...
Reported September 13, 'Trump administration officials have privately told those in the Gulf region that they want to refocus any future US-Iran negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program and not reopening the strait' - CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/iran-gulf-countries-strait-of-hormuz
EM Equities: Back To Overweight
Higher global rates are raising the hurdle for returns but have not knocked us off a pro-risk stance. Higher rates and strong equities needn't be contradictory - what drives yields matters.
Corning Tumbles 12% on $2B At-the-Market Equity Offering; Coherent Sinks 11%, Lumentum Drops 9%, Fabrinet Slides 6%
Shares of Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) are down 12% to $145.61 in Monday afternoon trading after the company disclosed a $2 billion at-the-market equity distribution program. The selloff makes Corning the worst performer in the S&P 500 today, and it’s dragging a tight cluster of artificial intelligence (AI) optical connectivity peers sharply lower alongside it. Barron’s […]
Netflix Climbs 4%, Alphabet Ticks Up, Amazon Barely Budges as New Streaming Policy Alliance Launches
Shares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) are climbing Monday afternoon after the streaming giant helped launch a new policy coalition focused on how digital platforms compete for live entertainment and sports rights. Netflix stock is up 4% to $80.78, outpacing its sector benchmark by a comfortable margin. The move stands out because Netflix stock had entered the […]
AeroVironment Rises 6% as Post-Earnings Recovery Outpaces Drone Group; Ondas Ticks Up, Red Cat Barely Budges
AeroVironment is surging while its closest drone rivals barely move and the sector ETF sits flat, raising the question of whether today's bid is a genuine turning point or just noise in a stock still deep in the red for the year.
GE Vernova Sinks 9% as GLJ Research Starts at Sell With $470 Target; Eaton Drops 7%, Quanta Services Falls 4%
A fresh sell rating with a price target nearly half the current stock price just landed on one of Wall Street's favorite power plays, and it is dragging the entire grid infrastructure sector down with it.
Bloom Energy Falls 8% as AI Power Bid Unwinds Days Before Bloom’s S&P 500 Add; FuelCell Energy Drops 5%, Plug Power Dips
Bloom Energy was riding two separate bids into its S&P 500 debut, but one just collapsed over the weekend, and the stock's 335x earnings multiple leaves almost no cushion if the other follows.
U.S. Household Wealth Explodes by Record $12.5 Trillion in Q2 — Largest Jump Ever Recorded
American households just added more wealth in a single quarter than most countries produce in a year, yet consumer sentiment sits at recessionary levels. Two assets did all the heavy lifting, and the math only holds until it doesn't.
Roblox Jumps 10% as Wedbush Lifts Target to $48 While Staying Neutral; Take-Two and GameStop Nudge Higher
Wedbush raised its price target on Roblox but kept a neutral rating, and the stock immediately shot above that new target. Find out what the analyst said, what Roblox unveiled at its developer conference, and why the risk-reward equation still has Wall Street sitting on the sidelines.
Caterpillar Falls 4% While Deere Edges Higher: Is the Data Center Power Trade Unwinding?
Two AI executives published essays over a weekend, and by Monday morning Caterpillar was selling off four times faster than the broader market while Deere climbed. The question is whether the order book that stretches into 2029 actually matters when sentiment turns this fast.
10-Year Treasury Yield Just Passed 5%, Here’s What Happened To The Market When The Same Thing Happened In 2007
The bond market just flashed a signal it last sent in 2007, and what followed that time was not what investors expected. History offers a warning, but it is not the one most people think.
Cybersecurity Stocks Surge as AI Safety Warnings Spark Security Bid: CrowdStrike and Zscaler Jump 12%, Palo Alto Rallies 11%
AI safety warnings from two frontier lab CEOs sent shockwaves through chipmakers over the weekend, but cybersecurity stocks are telling a completely different story about what those warnings mean for the threat environment ahead.
Coinbase Jumps 6% on Compass Point Upgrade Ahead of Senate CLARITY Act Vote; Strategy Climbs 3%, MARA Slips
A Senate floor vote on crypto market-structure legislation is splitting the sector in real time, lifting some names while a JPMorgan downgrade punishes a miner that Bitcoin's rally cannot save.
Chip Equipment Stocks Slide as AI Pacing Call Reaches Fab Spending: Applied Materials and Lam Research Fall 6%, ASML Sinks 5%
Anthropic's CEO called for slowing AI model progress over the weekend, and by Monday morning the shockwave had traveled straight to the fab equipment order books that Wall Street spent 2026 treating as untouchable.
EM Equities: Back To Overweight
Higher global rates are raising the hurdle for returns but have not knocked us off a pro-risk stance. Higher rates and strong equities needn't be contradictory - what drives yields matters.
The AI Labs Said Slow Down... The Market Sold Memory Stocks
AI stock sell-off may be sentiment-driven, with hyperscaler capex steady and inference demand strong. Click to read what investors need to know.
Why Pacing The Frontier 'AI' Won't Work
AI pacing calls lack enforcement amid US-China rivalry and open-source pushback. Click for an updated market outlook.
Market Drawdown Vs. Downturn: Watch The Fundamentals
Market drawdowns have often reflected policy uncertainty, but they donât necessarily signal the end of a market cycle. A meaningful downturn typically requires deteriorating fundamentals.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Sinks 9% on Downgrade After Triple-Digit Run; Dell Falls 5%, Super Micro Drops 8%
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) stock is down 9% to $56.47 in early trading Monday after a Wall Street downgrade landed on top of a triple-digit run for the artificial intelligence (AI) server maker. The move places Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock at the front of a sector-wide unwind in AI hardware, and it’s coming from the […]
AMD Is Sitting at $515. Here Is What Most U.S. Investors Should Actually Do About It.
AMD has surged over 200% in a year, locked in multi-gigawatt AI deals with OpenAI and Meta, and still has its entire senior leadership selling shares into the rally. One of those facts should give you serious pause before you touch this stock.
Seagate Has Real Upside Left. That Does Not Mean It Deserves Your Money Right Now.
Seagate's AI storage business is firing on all cylinders, nearline capacity is spoken for through 2027, and analysts keep raising targets. So why are the CEO, CFO, and CTO quietly selling shares at these prices?
This Analyst Says A Full Reversion to the Mean Would Take the S&P 500 From 7,000 to 2,500
A veteran portfolio manager pulled out a century-long logarithmic chart and pointed to where the S&P 500 sits today, then explained why that picture changes everything about how you should think about risk depending on your age.
Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Monday Amid AI Pullback
The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.6%, and the actively t
FOMC Preview: I'm Hoping For A 25 Bps Rate Hike
Fed funds futures price an 88% chance of a 25 bps Fed hike. Click for this look ahead at where the Fed may come down on interest rates.
Can Stocks Overcome These 3 Bearish Narratives?
Fed is expected to begin raising rates, shifting the market into a restrictive policy environment and increasing credibility of bearish narratives around rates, inflation and slowing growth.
This Generation Of Investors Could Soon Experience Their 1973 O.P.E.C. Moment
The Middle East conflict risks a 1973-style oil shock, pushing energy and commodity prices higher. Click for an updated market outlook.
AIER Everyday Price Index Rises Again, Showing Household Budgets Under Pressure
Markets Absorb Double Blows In Early Trading
Expect volatility this week as conflicts in the Middle East escalate oil prices, AI fears ratchet up, and investors await the main event: the Federal Reserveâs decision.
Forget An AI Slowdown, I'm Worried About A Double Hawk Instead
Gold Is Down Since the Iran War Began. This Obscure Shipping ETF Is Up 1,168%.
When the US and Israel began striking Iran, gold did what every financial advisor said it would. Then something strange happened in an obscure corner of the freight market that almost nobody was watching.
AI's 'Slowdown' Fear Is A Gift
AI labs urge an AI slowdown amid risk concerns, but competition and capex keep growth strong. Click for more on this growing issue.
Market Brief: Why Rate Hikes No Longer Work
The case for raising interest rates to fight inflation rests on a chain of assumptions that held for four decades.
Situational Awareness, Options Bets, And Pacing AI Frontier
I expected AI pacing to stay theoretical given that the two AI labs aren't public yet.
President Trump Posts On X "... We already have tremendous CRIMINAL and REGULATORY power over these companies! There is a SICK conspiracy going on against AI and Data Centers, and the only one that is happy about it is China. WHOEVER WINS AI, WINS! We are leading China, and all others, and will continue to do so. Conspiracy Theorists, Treasonists, Traitors, and Leakers, BEWARE!"
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117269745153543631
AI Doomsday Fears Shouldn't Crash The AI Boom
AI doomsday fears may spark market dips, but low enterprise spend signals a long AI growth runway. Click for more on this growing issue.
S&P 500 Investors Adjust To Expectations Of More Rate Hikes
The trading week ending Friday, 11 September 2026, saw the S&P 500 drop 0.8% below the preceding week's close.
AI-Pocalypse: When The Builders Ask You To Stop
AI leaders are now openly asking to slow frontier development, a striking shift that changes the risk profile of the entire AI trade. Click here to read more.
Chairman Warsh Is In A No Win Situation
A Fed Rate Hike Is A Massive Mistake
Fed rate hikes may not curb AI-driven energy inflation; small businesses risk recession and âstagflation light.â Learn market crash risks and what to do...
Why Are Nasdaq Futures Tumbling Premarket? MU, AMD, NVDA, ORCL, RUM, TSLA, SPCX Stocks In Focus
Retail sentiment on SPY and QQQ has dipped to ‘extremely bearish’ territory amid the debate over AI ‘pacing’.
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Fall After OpenAI, Anthropic’s Appeals Rattle AI Trade — NVDA, MU, SNDK, ORCL, TSLA In Focus (UPDATED)
U.S. stocks eye a lower open as AI safety concerns mount; Anthropic urges a slowdown, OpenAI delays IPO, and markets price a Fed hike.
Fed Hike, 5% Yields, $100 Oil: Why Wall Street Won't Crack
The S&P 500 remains near record highs despite $100 oil, rising Treasury yields and an expected Fed hike. Ed Yardeni explains why earnings matter.
The Threat Isn't LLMs, It's The Labs Behind Them
Anthropic eyes a Nasdaq IPO as AI safety warnings shape regulation. Click for this updated look at the safety concerns surrounding AI. Click for more.
Saudi Arabia Under Attack: Oil Should Be Above $200?
Reported September 13, 'Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil, like Venezuela deal' - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-us-could-stay-iran-keep-oil-like-venezuela-deal-2026-09-13/
Reported September 13, 'Trump administration officials have privately told those in the Gulf region that they want to refocus any future US-Iran negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program and not reopening the strait' - CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/iran-gulf-countries-strait-of-hormuz
Survival First, Before Growth - Weekly Blog # 958
We seem to be much further along in the development of the enthusiasm fueling rising markets. Read more here...
The First Crack Appears In This Bull Market (The First Of Four Factors That Would Make Me A Bear)
Weekly Market Pulse: The House
Rising rates this year have not been all about inflation. 10-year TIPS yields are up 53 basis points, and the 10-year inflation breakeven is only up 15 basis points.
CIO Weekly: Bleeding Air Out Of The Bubble?
Equity valuations have compressed by a decent amount over the last 12 months with no broad market crash or even a meaningful correction.
'Canada Seeks Ukraine Loan Role to Deepen EU Ties' - FT
https://www.ft.com/content/9cd8cc79-e98a-449f-a903-609b034a56e3?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
S&P 500 futures fell as oil topped $107 and Fed hike bets hit 86.7%; Polymarket traders overwhelmingly expect stocks to open lower.
Agent 16 — Faber GTAA closed long 44 @ $761.70 (+$177.32)
Faber GTAA monthly rebalance. SPY slot ON (close 761.70 vs SMA 710.66).
Agent 2 — Adaptive — considered
Stage 2: close $771.04 > MA150 $718.62 (+7.3%), MA rising, 1.1% off 52w high, vol 2.11× avg
Agent 1 — Immutable — considered
Stage 2: close $771.04 > MA150 $718.62 (+7.3%), MA rising, 1.1% off 52w high, vol 2.11× avg
Agent 2 — Adaptive — considered
Stage 2: close $771.28 > MA150 $709.43 (+8.7%), MA rising, 0.3% off 52w high, vol 1.22× avg
Agent 16 — Faber GTAA closed long 43 @ $757.67 (+$512.13)
Faber GTAA monthly rebalance. SPY slot ON (close 757.67 vs SMA 700.86).
Agent 16 — Faber GTAA opened long 44 @ $757.67
Agent 16 — Faber GTAA closed long 32 @ $745.76 (-$405.76)
Faber GTAA monthly rebalance. SPY slot ON (close 745.76 vs SMA 692.01).
Agent 16 — Faber GTAA opened long 43 @ $745.76
Agent 2 — Adaptive — considered
Stage 2: close $725.43 > MA150 $692.91 (+4.7%), MA rising, 4.6% off 52w high, vol 1.99× avg
Agent 2 — Adaptive — considered
Stage 2: close $737.55 > MA150 $691.84 (+6.6%), MA rising, 3.0% off 52w high, vol 1.94× avg
Agent 2 — Adaptive — considered
Stage 2: close $756.66 > MA150 $691.00 (+9.5%), MA rising, 0.5% off 52w high, vol 0.02× avg
Agent 16 — Faber GTAA closed long 33 @ $758.44 (+$67.32)
Faber GTAA monthly rebalance. SPY slot ON (close 758.44 vs SMA 681.97).
Agent 16 — Faber GTAA opened long 32 @ $758.44
Agent 2 — Adaptive — considered
Stage 2: close $756.40 > MA150 $689.50 (+9.7%), MA rising, 0.2% off 52w high, vol 1.88× avg
Agent 1 — Immutable — considered
Stage 2: close $756.40 > MA150 $689.50 (+9.7%), MA rising, 0.2% off 52w high, vol 1.88× avg
Agent 16 — Faber GTAA opened long 33 @ $756.40
Agent 2 — Adaptive — considered
Stage 2: close $733.79 > MA150 $685.71 (+7.0%), MA rising, 2.1% off 52w high, vol 1.99× avg