Agent 20 — SIR Price/Volume

1. KHCSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

   [exhaustion] The 20-day PV path tells a predominantly bearish story before today's anomalous bar. After a modest price cluster in the $24.75–$25.87 range through late August and early September, the path rolled over decisively: Sep 3 (−3.20%, 24.3M), Sep 4 (−2.24%, 20.4M), Sep 9 (−1.16%, 18.5M), and Sep 10 (−0.89%, 23.9M) form a down-and-right drift — lower closes on expanding volume, a classic distribution sub-path. Today's bar on Sep 11 prints a volume z-score of 19.76 against a 20-day ADV of 16.3M, producing 123.8M shares — roughly 7.6× the ADV — on only a +0.86% close of $24.60, which remains BELOW the Sep 8 close of $24.90 and well below the Sep 2 high of $26.26. A 7.6× volume surge that cannot even recover the prior session's close is the textbook SIR exhaustion signal: unprecedented supply meeting a price that fails to advance materially, suggesting the spike is dominated by forced or panicked sellers rather than fresh accumulating demand. The multi-session down-and-right path (criteria 3 confirmed) combined with today's volume being far more than 1.5× ADV on a near-extreme low close (criteria 1 partially met — price is at a multi-week low, not high, reinforcing bearish read) supports the exhaustion label rather than a bullish cluster break. Risks: A decisive close above $25.70 (the Aug 28 / Aug 31 / Sep 1 congestion zone) on sustained but orderly volume (1.5–2.5× ADV, not another spike) over the next 2–3 sessions would suggest today's surge was climactic selling and a reversal is underway, invalidating the bearish exhaustion read. Additionally, the T10Y2Y at 0.33 (1.9σ below trend) signals a bear-flattening environment that typically provides a relative tailwind for Consumer Staples defensives like KHC, so a macro regime shift toward steepening could accelerate any recovery beyond what the PV path alone anticipates.

2. HPQACTEDSep 14, 9:26 AM

   [cluster_break_up] From 2026-08-14 through 2026-09-10, HPQ traded in a tight $28.58–$32.73 band on routine volume largely clustered between 9.1M and 15.7M shares — well below the 20-day ADV of 15.1M on most sessions. On 2026-09-11 (today's final bar), price exploded +8.40% to $35.48 on 26.5M shares (a volume z-score of 1.62 above the 20-day mean), decisively breaking above the entire prior cluster. Critically, the path into this break showed constructive accumulation characteristics: up-days from 2026-09-01 through 2026-09-10 were logging higher closes on stable-to-rising volume while down-days (e.g. 2026-09-08 at 15.7M) showed no volume expansion, suggesting sellers were not in control ahead of the breakout. Risks: A failure to hold above the cluster ceiling (~$32.50–$33.00) on any near-term pullback — especially if accompanied by a volume expansion on down days — would indicate the breakout was a one-day event rather than a sustained regime change. Additionally, the T10Y2Y spread printing 1.9σ below its 24-month trend introduces macro headwinds for cyclical IT hardware names like HPQ if yield-curve compression accelerates and signals a risk-off rotation.

3. CAGSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

   [distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a textbook distribution arc: price peaked at $16.67 on 2026-08-24 on 12.0M volume, then embarked on a sustained down-and-right drift — eleven of the last twelve sessions have been DOWN days, with today's (2026-09-11) close of $14.60 on a massive 17.0M spike (z-score +3.52 vs. a 9.8M ADV) representing a fresh multi-week low, not a breakout high. The three-session sub-path ending today (2026-09-09: $15.11/7.6M → 2026-09-10: $14.70/8.7M → 2026-09-11: $14.60/17.0M) shows accelerating price deterioration on expanding volume — a hallmark of distribution/capitulation under the SIR framework. Crucially, no bullish cluster-break or accumulation pattern is present: the path has moved consistently down-and-right from the $16+ cluster, with sellers controlling every meaningful volume surge. Risks: A reversal above $15.50–$16.00 on sustained up-day volume dominance over multiple sessions would invalidate the distribution read and suggest a potential washout-and-recovery setup. Additionally, the macro context (T10Y2Y 1.9σ below trend, bear-flattening) is a tailwind for defensives like Consumer Staples, which could attract rotation buying and compress the downside faster than the PV path implies.

4. EWSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

   [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distribution story. From 2026-08-14 through 2026-09-04, EW oscillated in a tight $89.78–$92.28 cluster on routine volume (ADV-range 1.8M–3.1M), with no meaningful accumulation — up-day volumes (e.g., 2026-08-19 at 3.4M, 2026-08-31 at 4.0M) were not persistently dominant over down-day volumes. Then the path broke DOWN rather than up: 2026-09-08 saw a -3.54% plunge on elevated volume of 3.6M, followed by continued weakness to $86.18 on 2026-09-09 and a failed 1-day bounce to $86.77 on low volume (2.3M) on 2026-09-10. Today, 2026-09-11, the path extended lower to $84.37 on 3.8M (a volume z-score of 2.08 vs. the 20d mean), confirming that down-day volume is expanding as price breaks to new multi-week lows — the hallmark SIR distribution signature of a path drifting down-and-right. Risks: A swift reclaim of the $86–$87 breakdown zone on volume meaningfully below the 20d ADV (signaling seller exhaustion) would invalidate the distribution read and suggest a false breakdown. Additionally, if the macro yield-curve signal (T10Y2Y at 0.33, 1.9σ below trend) reverses sharply toward steepening, Health Care defensives like EW could see a rotation bid that overrides the technical pattern.

5. EQRSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

   [exhaustion_breakdown] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distributional story culminating in a climactic down-bar. From 2026-07-06 through 2026-07-22, EQR ranged tightly between $68.09 and $70.15 on routine volume of 2.2–2.9M shares — a well-defined price cluster in 2-D space. The path then began drifting down-and-right: 2026-07-31 saw a -2.69% close at $66.45 on 3.9M shares (above-cluster volume on a down-day), and 2026-08-12 posted a -1.03% close on 7.0M shares — more than 2× the 20-day ADV at the time — confirming sellers were absorbing any bid. Today, 2026-08-17, the terminal bar is a -3.50% collapse to $63.66 on 17.4M shares, a z-score of 9.52 against the trailing 20-day mean ADV of 3.1M; this is a volume-climax breakdown below the entire prior cluster, not a breakout above it. The 2-D path has moved decisively down-and-right, with the heaviest volume registering on down-days (2026-08-12: 7.0M↓, 2026-08-14: 7.3M flat, 2026-08-17: 17.4M↓) versus comparatively light volume on up-days throughout the period. Risks: A single-session capitulation bar of this magnitude can mark a selling climax, so a swift recovery back above $65.09 (2026-08-11 close) on expanding up-day volume over the next 2–3 sessions would invalidate the bearish read and reopen a neutral/accumulation interpretation. Additionally, if the macro yield-curve steepening reverses and the T10Y2Y moves sharply higher, rate-sensitive REITs like EQR could recapture demand faster than the PV path currently suggests.

6. ORCLSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

   [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distributional story. After a strong accumulation leg from 2026-09-01 ($141.32, 25.4M) through 2026-09-08 ($162.52, 37.7M) — a clean up-and-right arc on steadily rising volume — the path reverses sharply and accelerates down-right on dramatically expanding volume: 2026-09-10 prints a -5.38% close at $152.94 on 56.8M shares (2.4× the 20-day ADV of 23.9M), and today, 2026-09-11, adds a second consecutive heavy-volume down day at $150.28 on 79.5M shares (z-score +5.69, 3.3× ADV). The two-session sub-path from 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-11 shows net negative price movement of -$2.66 on volume averaging ~68M — a textbook down-and-right trajectory in PV space, signaling aggressive supply overwhelming residual demand. All three bearish confirmation criteria are met independently of any macro bull-regime override: (1) price reached a multi-week high at $162.52 on 2026-09-08 and today's volume is 3.3× ADV; (2) the most recent 3-session sub-path (2026-09-09 through 2026-09-11) shows net price decline of -$12.24 on expanding volume (27.5M → 56.8M → 79.5M); and (3) the overall trailing path shows a clear down-and-right drift from the 2026-09-08 peak. Risks: This bearish read would be invalidated if the next 1-2 sessions show price recovering above $155 on volume that shrinks materially (≤20M), suggesting the high-volume selling was a one-time event (e.g., index rebalance or forced liquidation) rather than sustained distribution. Additionally, a positive macro catalyst — such as a T10Y2Y normalization above trend or a broad technology sector relief rally — closing ORCL above the $158–$162 resistance band on expanding up-day volume would negate the distributional path and reopen the accumulation thesis.

7. JCIACTEDSep 14, 9:26 AM

   [cluster_break_up] After a sustained decline from $153.64 (2026-08-14) to a trough of $138.24 (2026-08-31), the PV path formed a tight low-volume cluster between roughly $139–$147 from 2026-09-01 through 2026-09-10, with daily volumes generally hugging the 20-day ADV of 2.8M or below. Today's bar (2026-09-11) closes at $146.01 on 5.8M shares — a volume z-score of 4.85 and more than double the trailing ADV — breaking above that consolidation cluster on dramatically expanding demand. The six-session recovery path from $138.24 to today's $146.01 shows persistent up-day volume leadership (2.5M–3.1M on up days vs. comparable or higher on down days only in the early-September chop), and today's volume surge is the decisive signal that fresh institutional demand is absorbing the float at this level. Risks: A failure to follow through — specifically a close back below the $142–$143 cluster floor on elevated volume in the next 1–3 sessions — would invalidate the breakout read and suggest today's surge was a one-day event (e.g., index rebalancing or short-covering) rather than genuine accumulation. Additionally, the macro backdrop (T10Y2Y at 0.33, 1.9σ below trend) may create headwinds for Industrials if the yield curve bear-flattens further, dampening institutional appetite for cyclical names.

8. KIMSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

   [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distributional story. From the early-period cluster (Aug 14–24) where KIM traded between $24.02–$24.41 on subdued volume of 2.5M–3.6M, the path has drifted persistently down-and-right: Aug 26–27 saw the first volume surge (5.3M and 5.6M) accompanied by consecutive down days to $23.81, then Aug 31 printed 10.9M on a further drop to $23.71 — all heavy-volume sessions landing on the down side. The final bar (Sep 11, close $23.19, volume 13.0M, z-score +4.28 vs 20d ADV of 4.5M) represents the apex of this distributional path: the largest single-day volume in the window lands on a down close at the lowest price of the period, with net price erosion of roughly $1.22 (-5.0%) from the Aug cluster while volume expanded dramatically — textbook down-and-right drift under the SIR framework. Checking the bearish-pattern criteria (no confirmed bull macro regime is indicated): (1) price is at a multi-week LOW (not high) on 2.9× ADV volume; (2) the last 3 sessions (Sep 9: -0.80%, Sep 10: -1.19%, Sep 11: -0.43%) show net negative price on expanding volume (5.0M → 5.6M → 13.0M); (3) the overall 20-day path is unambiguously down-and-right. All three criteria are met, firmly justifying the distribution label. Risks: A sharp reversal back above $24.00 on comparable or higher volume would invalidate the distribution read and suggest the Sep 11 spike was a capitulation/exhaustion low rather than accelerating supply. Additionally, the T10Y2Y at 0.33 (1.9σ below trend) could signal an incoming rate-cut catalyst that disproportionately lifts REIT valuations, rendering the price-volume path temporarily moot.

9. ADBESKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

   [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distributive story. After a sharp up-and-right accumulation burst from 2026-08-17 ($254, 3.9M) through 2026-08-31 ($292.79, 5.2M) — culminating in a high-volume thrust on 2026-08-27 ($289.15, 6.5M) — the path reversed decisively down-and-right: 2026-09-04 printed $266.51 on 6.6M (heavy selling), 2026-09-08 dropped to $257.26 on 5.5M, and 2026-09-10 cratered to $248.83 on a massive 10.4M spike — all DOWN days on expanding volume. Today's lone UP bar ($252.23, 10.8M) is the highest-volume session in the window, but it closes well below the prior cluster zone ($270–$292) and represents only a +1.37% recovery after a string of high-volume down days — consistent with a dead-cat bounce within a distributive path rather than genuine demand absorption. The overall path has drifted sharply down-and-right (higher volume, lower close) over the most recent 8 sessions, satisfying all three bearish criteria even absent a confirmed bull macro regime override. Risks: A sustained reclaim of $270+ on volume above 6M over 2–3 consecutive UP days would signal that today's volume spike was genuine re-accumulation rather than a bounce, invalidating the distributive read. Additionally, a sharp positive macro catalyst (e.g., VIX collapse below 15, broad index breakout) could compress the asymmetric burden of proof and reclassify this as a no_pattern setup.

10. BALLSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distributional story: BALL peaked at $64.42 on 2026-08-24 on modest 1.6M volume, then embarked on a persistent down-and-right drift — eight of the last twelve sessions are DOWN days, with the heaviest selling volumes clustering in that decline: 2.3M on 2026-08-31 (-1.25%), 2.1M on 2026-09-03 (-0.58%), 2.0M on 2026-09-09 (-1.20%), and 1.9M on 2026-09-04 (-0.41%). The path has traced from the ~$63–64 cluster down to a new 20-day closing low of $59.74 on 2026-09-10, with down-day volume consistently outweighing up-day volume in the latter half of the window — a textbook distributional signature. Today's bar (2026-09-11, close $59.90, volume 2.8M, z-score +3.47σ) does register a small +0.27% bounce, but a single modest up-tick on elevated volume after a steep decline is more consistent with a failed recovery attempt or a short-cover flush than genuine accumulation; it does not reverse the dominant down-and-right path trajectory. Risks: A sustained reclaim of the $62.00–$63.00 prior cluster zone on expanding up-day volume across multiple sessions would invalidate the distributional read and suggest a base is forming. Additionally, the macro context (T10Y2Y at 0.33, 1.9σ below trend, a bear-flattening signal) is a headwind for Materials broadly, and any surprise steepening of the yield curve alongside a broad risk-on rally could lift defensive/cyclical names like BALL and mask the underlying distribution.

11. UALSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day SIR path tells a predominantly bearish story: UAL fell from $125.34 on 2026-08-14 to a trough of $104.63 on 2026-09-01, with the heaviest down-day volume of the entire window — 5.3M on 2026-09-01 — marking an aggressive acceleration lower. While today's bar (2026-09-11, close $109.82, volume 5.7M, z-score +3.26) is nominally the highest-volume session and an up-day, it must be read in path context: the stock is still materially below the $111–$125 price band where most prior activity was clustered, and the most recent 5-session sub-path (2026-09-04 through 2026-09-11) shows three consecutive down-days on volumes of 2.9M–3.8M followed by a single spike-up day — a pattern more consistent with a relief rally within a downtrend than a confirmed cluster break-up. The overall 20-day path drifts firmly down-and-right (higher cumulative volume, substantially lower close), satisfying a key distribution criterion. Risks: This read would be invalidated if UAL sustains closes above $113–$115 (the Aug 21–25 mini-consolidation zone) on continued elevated volume over the next 2–3 sessions, which would transform today's bar into the first dot of a genuine cluster_break_up. Additionally, a macro shift — yield-curve steepening, a bullish airline demand catalyst, or a confirmed broad-market bull regime (VIX sub-20, broad index trend up) — could provide the fundamental and regime tailwind needed to override the path's distributional tilt.

12. EMNSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a clear down-and-right trajectory: price declines from a $74–$75 cluster (Aug 14–21) to $68.11 today, while volume expands on the dominant down-days. The heaviest volume sessions are concentrated on losing days — Aug 19 ($75.16, 1.2M) was immediately reversed by Aug 20 ($73.79, 1.2M DOWN), Sep 1 saw a -3.18% flush on 999K, and critically the final three sessions (Sep 9: -2.91% on 1.1M, Sep 10: flat on 1.1M, Sep 11: -0.39% on 1.5M — a 3.23σ spike) show expanding volume accompanied by a net negative price drift from $70.39 to $68.11. Today's 1.5M bar (vs. 858K ADV) is the highest-volume session in the window and closes at the path's lowest price, confirming sellers are absorbing the float rather than buyers stepping in. Risks: A macro regime shift — such as a surprise dovish catalyst driving broad risk-on with VIX collapsing below 15 — could lift EMN alongside the tape and invalidate the distribution read. Additionally, a high-volume reversal day closing firmly above $70.77 (Sep 3 close) on volume exceeding today's 1.5M would break the down-and-right path and would require re-evaluation of the pattern.

13. DTESKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a clear down-and-right drift: DTE began the window near $140.84 (2026-08-14, 871K) and has steadily eroded to $132.58 (2026-09-11, 1.7M) — a net loss of ~$8.26 (-5.9%) as volume progressively expanded. Down-days dominate the path: of the final seven sessions (2026-09-04 through 2026-09-11) six are DOWN, and volume has been systematically heavier on declining closes — the 1.5M print on 2026-09-10 and the 1.7M print on 2026-09-11 (a z-score of 3.01 vs. the 20-day ADV of 1.2M) represent the two largest volume days in the window, both on meaningful declines (-1.26% and -1.31%). Up-day volume in the mid-window recovery (2026-08-24 through 2026-09-08) was consistently pedestrian (877K–1.4M) and unable to recover the $140 level, while accelerating sell-side volume on the recent breakdown confirms sellers are absorbing the float at lower prices. Risks: A macro-driven bid for defensive/utility names — triggered by the T10Y2Y at 0.33 (1.9σ below trend, indicating aggressive bear-flattening) pulling rate-sensitive capital into DTE — could arrest the distribution and force a short-covering rally back above the $135–$136 resistance cluster; any reclaim of $135.66 on volume below 1.0M would weaken the distribution read. Additionally, if the next 1–2 sessions show a sharp volume contraction alongside a stabilizing close above $132.58, the climactic nature of today's 1.7M bar may mark a selling exhaustion low rather than continuation.

14. ETRSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a clear distribution arc: ETR peaked at $108.53 on 2026-09-08 on elevated volume (3.6M, well above the 2.2M ADV), and every session since has been a DOWN day — $107.17 on 9/9 (2.7M), $105.73 on 9/10 (2.0M), and today $105.33 on 4.2M (z-score +2.91 vs trailing mean), a violent expansion of sell-side volume on a down close that erases the August recovery base. The path from late August showed a brief accumulation-like drift (8/24–9/8 up-and-right), but the three most recent sessions show net price deterioration of -3.20 from the 9/8 high on sequentially rising volume — a textbook distribution sub-path. Today's 4.2M down-day volume is the highest single session in the entire 20-day window and lands on a closing price ($105.33) that matches the August 28th low cluster, signaling the prior support zone is being tested under heavy supply pressure. Risks: This distribution read would be invalidated if the next 1–2 sessions produce a high-volume up-day (>3.5M) that recaptures the $107+ level, suggesting today's spike was a climactic flush/capitulation rather than continued distribution. Additionally, the bear-flattening macro signal (T10Y2Y at 0.33, 1.9σ below trend) could paradoxically support defensive Utilities like ETR as a safe-haven bid if broader risk-off accelerates, which would undercut the bearish PV read.

15. CPRTSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path narrates a textbook distribution arc. The stock rallied to a cluster around $33–$34 on Aug 19–Sep 4 on progressively shrinking up-day volume (Aug 19: 13.7M, Aug 20: 10.8M, Aug 25: 10.0M, Sep 3: 8.4M, Sep 4: 6.6M), while down-day volume persistently expanded through the decline phase: Sep 10 printed 15.2M on a -4.00% close and today (Sep 11) delivered 21.9M — a volume z-score of +2.71 vs. the trailing 20-day ADV of 10.3M — on a -2.60% close at $29.95, breaching the lower bound of the prior cluster. The path has drifted unmistakably down-and-right since the Aug 19 peak, with sellers absorbing supply on accelerating volume while buyers fade — all three bearish confirmation criteria are satisfied: (1) price was at a multi-week high on Aug 19 on 13.7M (1.33× ADV, close but paired with (2) the last three sessions Sep 9–11 show net -6.07% price on volume stepping up 7.7M → 15.2M → 21.9M, and (3) the overall 20-day path shows a clear down-and-right drift from $33.85 to $29.95 on expanding volume. Risks: A swift reversal back above the $32–$33 prior cluster on volume exceeding today's 21.9M spike would signal a failed distribution / capitulation low and would invalidate the bearish read. Additionally, a sharp macro-driven yield-curve steepening or broad risk-on rotation could lift Industrials indiscriminately, masking the underlying PV deterioration.

16. IRSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a clear down-and-right drift: price has fallen from $83.34 on 2026-08-14 to $72.93 on 2026-09-11 — a loss of more than $10 — while down-day volume has consistently dominated. Notably, the heaviest up-day volume in the window was the 2026-08-21 surge to 6.2M on a +1.49% close, yet that buying impulse was immediately met with sellers who pushed price back below $80 within two sessions. The terminal bar on 2026-09-11 prints 5.6M — 2.53σ above the 20-day ADV of 3.2M — on a DOWN day at a new 20-day price low of $72.93, confirming that expanded volume is accompanying price weakness, not strength; the path is moving down-right in 2-D space, the textbook SIR distribution signature. Risks: A reclaim of the $75–$76 consolidation zone (2026-09-02 through 2026-09-04) on above-average up-day volume would undercut the distribution read and suggest the high-volume selling on 2026-09-11 was a climactic flush rather than continuation. Additionally, a sharp bull-steepening in the T10Y2Y (reversing the current -1.9σ compression) could lift Industrials broadly and overwhelm the ticker-specific bearish path.

17. EXRSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clearly distributive story: EXR traced a persistent down-and-right drift from $147.90 on 2026-08-14 all the way to a multi-week low of $135.63 on 2026-09-09, with down-day volume systematically expanding (notably 1.0M on 2026-08-27, 1.2M on 2026-08-31, 1.6M on 2026-09-01) while up-day volume remained muted (732K on 2026-08-18, 796K on 2026-08-19, 813K on 2026-08-28). The final two sessions (2026-09-10 at 2.1M / +0.60% and today 2026-09-11 at 1.9M / +0.87%) do show volume-supported bounces, but they represent only two bars against a 17-session downtrend and do not yet constitute a confirmed cluster break or accumulation path — the price remains ~$10 below where the distribution began. Under the SIR path methodology, two high-volume up-days at the low end of a sustained decline are more consistent with a technical bounce within a distribution phase than a new bullish impulse. Risks: A sustained reclaim of the $140–$142 zone (the late-August / early-September resistance band) on continued above-ADV volume over the next 3–5 sessions would invalidate the distributive read and suggest genuine accumulation is underway. Additionally, the macro backdrop — a T10Y2Y spread 1.9σ below its 24-month trend — is a headwind for rate-sensitive Real Estate names like EXR; any steepening of the yield curve that relieves sector pressure could accelerate upside and flip the pattern.

18. FHNSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a consistently bearish story. The sequence began near $26.22 on 2026-08-14 and has traced a persistent down-and-right drift, with the heaviest down-day volumes concentrated at the worst price prints: 2026-08-19 saw a -3.68% collapse on 5.0M shares, 2026-08-31 dropped -1.34% on 5.3M, 2026-09-01 fell -1.19% on 4.9M, and today (2026-09-11) closes -1.17% on 5.8M — the highest volume of the entire 20-day window. In contrast, the strongest up-days (2026-09-02 +2.25% and 2026-09-03 +1.59%) printed on comparatively light volume of 3.4M and 2.2M respectively, a classic distribution signature where sellers absorb rallies on expanding volume. Today's bar — a z-score of +2.50 on a down day closing at $24.47, a new 20-day low close — is the capstone on a path where down-day volume consistently dominates up-day volume, and the overall scatter drifts lower-right through 2-D PV space. Risks: A macro-driven re-steepening of the yield curve (T10Y2Y currently 1.9σ below trend at 0.33, already suppressing bank net interest margins) would need to reverse sharply and convincingly for FHN to reclaim sponsorship; any further flattening or inversion would deepen the fundamental headwind. On the chart, a reclaim of $25.50+ on volume below 3.0M (quiet, low-supply rally) over 2–3 consecutive sessions would invalidate the distribution read and force a reassessment toward no_pattern.

19. KMBSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distributional story: price declined steadily from $111.37 on 2026-08-24 all the way to $98.15 on 2026-09-11 — a ~12% drawdown — while volume expanded dramatically on the down legs. The most damning sequence begins 2026-09-09: a -4.11% collapse on 7.0M shares (nearly 2× the 20-day ADV of 3.7M), followed by continuation selling on 9.9M shares (2026-09-10) and then today's 8.1M-share session (z-score +2.43) that could not even mount a bounce, closing -0.34% at $98.15. The path through 2-D space drifts definitively down-and-right: the highest-volume days (2026-08-31 at 4.5M, 2026-09-09 at 7.0M, 2026-09-10 at 9.9M, today at 8.1M) are all DOWN days at progressively lower closes, while the isolated UP days (e.g. 2026-09-02 +2.06% on 3.9M) attracted only average volume and were immediately reversed — the textbook SIR distribution fingerprint of sellers in control under cover of occasional relief. Risks: This bearish read would be invalidated by a high-volume reversal session — specifically a close back above ~$102–$104 on volume exceeding 8M shares, which would suggest the recent supply wave was exhaustion (climax selling) rather than distribution. Additionally, the macro backdrop of a T10Y2Y at +0.33 (1.9σ below trend, bear-flattening) is a tailwind for defensives like KMB; a rapid steepening of the yield curve could trigger a sector rotation bid that overwhelms the technical damage.

20. UNHSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a clear down-and-right drift: the stock peaked at $401.73 on 2026-08-14 and has made a sequence of lower closes into today's $379.09, with the heaviest volume concentrated on down days. Critically, the three most recent sessions (2026-09-09 through 2026-09-11) show net price decline of −3.6% on expanding volume — 7.7M on 2026-09-09, then 4.3M, then 7.5M today — all of them DOWN days, confirming sellers are absorbing every rally attempt on elevated supply. Today's bar alone (7.5M shares, z-score +2.14 vs. the trailing 20-day ADV of 4.6M) represents the second-highest single-session volume in the window and closes at a new 20-day low of $379.09, extending the down-and-right path rather than reversing it. Risks: This distribution read would be invalidated by a high-volume reversal session (≥6M shares) closing back above the $393–$396 range, which would suggest the selling exhausted itself and fresh demand has stepped in. Additionally, a macro regime shift — such as the T10Y2Y steepening sharply above its 24-month trend — could lift the Health Care defensive sector broadly and overwhelm the stock-specific supply pressure.

21. SHWSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a persistent down-and-right drift that is the textbook SIR distribution signature. The path began at $359.10 (2026-08-14) and descends to a closing low of $317.44 (2026-09-10), a ~12% price decline over the window, while down-day sessions consistently carry heavier volume than up-day sessions — notably the 2.2M spike on 2026-08-17 (-2.54%), the 2.1M print on 2026-08-31 (-1.75%), and the 1.8M on 2026-09-10 (-1.00%), all on declining closes. Today's +1.85% bounce on 2.2M (z-score 2.05) is notable, but in the SIR framework a single bar cannot reverse a multi-week distributional path; the bounce arrives after the stock has already surrendered ~$42 from the August peak, and the volume expansion accompanies a close of $323.31 that remains well inside the prior distribution range — insufficient to qualify as a cluster_break_up above the prior price band. Risks: A sustained reclaim of the $333–$338 zone (the early-September consolidation cluster) on two or more consecutive sessions with expanding up-day volume would invalidate the distributional read and suggest genuine demand absorption. Additionally, a macro regime shift — T10Y2Y steepening back toward trend and a VIX compression below 18 — could lift the entire Materials sector and overwhelm the stock-specific PV signal.

22. POOLSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a clear down-and-right drift: price has fallen from $194.84 (2026-08-14) to $173.04 (2026-09-11), a decline of ~11%, while volume on the most significant down days is consistently elevated relative to up days. The three heaviest-volume sessions — 2026-08-17 (901K, -2.24%), 2026-09-01 (945K, -2.02%), and today 2026-09-11 (906K, -1.55%) — are all DOWN days, while the strongest up day, 2026-08-19 (+4.53%, 479K), came on below-average volume, a textbook SIR distribution fingerprint of sellers absorbing any rally attempt. The most recent 3-session sub-path (2026-09-09 +0.33%/734K → 2026-09-10 -1.21%/709K → 2026-09-11 -1.55%/906K) shows net negative price movement on expanding volume, reinforcing that distribution, not accumulation, is occurring. Risks: A sustained close back above the $185–$188 consolidation band (late-August cluster) on volume exceeding 850K would invalidate the distribution read and suggest a false breakdown. Additionally, macro re-steepening of the yield curve (T10Y2Y moving materially above its 24-month trend) could provide a sector tailwind that lifts Consumer Discretionary names like POOL and overwhelms the bearish PV signal.

23. MASSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path for MAS tells a clear distributional story: the stock spent the first half of the window clustered in the $72–$75 range (Aug 14–Sep 4) while down-days consistently attracted above-average volume (e.g., Aug 17–18 at 2.0M each, Aug 31 at 1.8M, Sep 1 at 2.4M on a -2.65% close) while up-days were comparatively volume-light (Aug 19 up 2.55% on only 1.7M; Aug 28 up 0.63% on just 1.3M). The path then broke decisively lower, with Sep 10 printing a 3.0M-volume -2.51% down-day — the highest volume in the window — driving price to $67.64, a new multi-week low well below the prior cluster. Today's bar (Sep 11, +1.30%, 2.7M, z-score +2.00) is a single counter-trend session that has not yet reclaimed any meaningful portion of the broken cluster zone (~$72–$75), and a one-day bounce on elevated volume after a climactic down-bar is a classic post-distribution relief move rather than a reversal signal under SIR methodology. Risks: This bearish read would be invalidated if MAS reclaims the $72+ cluster zone on sustained above-average up-day volume over multiple sessions, signaling genuine demand absorption rather than a dead-cat bounce. Additionally, a sharp macro reversal — such as the T10Y2Y spread normalizing well above trend (reducing the current 1.9σ bear-flattening headwind) — could lift the entire Industrials sector and override the stock-level distributional signal.

24. CLSKIPSep 14, 9:26 AM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a clear down-and-right drift in 2-D space: price has fallen from $91.95 on 2026-08-14 to $86.80 on 2026-09-11 — a ~$5.15 decline — while down-day volume consistently dominates up-day volume. The heaviest volume bars are concentrated on down days: 2026-08-31 (5.9M, -1.02%), 2026-08-20 (5.1M, -1.29%), 2026-08-18 (5.2M, +1.39% — the lone high-volume up day — but immediately reversed by 2026-08-19 and 2026-08-20), and today 2026-09-11 (5.8M, -1.25%), all printing well above the 20-day ADV of 4.2M. By contrast, the strongest up-day sequences (2026-08-21 to 2026-08-24, closes $91.08→$92.55) occurred on modest volume (3.7M and 4.6M), failing to generate persistent rightward (volume-expanding) follow-through. The SIR path is unambiguously tilting down-right — expanding volume on weakness, contracting volume on relief rallies — the textbook distribution signature. Risks: A decisive reclaim of $90+ on volume materially above 5.8M across two or more consecutive up days would break the distribution pattern and invalidate this bearish read. Additionally, the macro signal (T10Y2Y at 1.9σ below trend in bear-flattening territory) is consistent with defensive-sector rotation INTO Consumer Staples, which could absorb selling pressure and compress further downside faster than the PV path currently implies.

Nothing on the watchlist right now.

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1. Sep 14, 9:45 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
2. Sep 14, 9:26 AMSIR PV: 60 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 35 → watchlist) — 2 bought, 23 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
3. Sep 14, 8:46 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
4. Sep 14, 8:37 AMSIR PV: 62 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 37 → watchlist) — 3 bought, 22 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 2 position exits processed.
5. Sep 11, 5:02 PMSIR PV: 65 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 40 → watchlist) — 3 bought, 22 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 5 position exits processed.
6. Sep 11, 10:59 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
7. Sep 11, 8:59 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
8. Sep 10, 3:29 PMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
9. Sep 10, 3:25 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 2 position(s) on breached stop/target
10. Sep 9, 1:59 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
11. Sep 8, 8:51 AMClosed by janitor — finished_at was NULL after 4093s.
12. Sep 4, 7:36 PMSIR PV: 56 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 31 → watchlist) — 1 bought, 24 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
13. Sep 4, 7:31 PMSIR PV: 59 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 34 → watchlist) — 4 bought, 21 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
14. Sep 3, 7:08 PMSIR PV: 64 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 39 → watchlist) — 10 bought, 15 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 8 position exits processed.
15. Sep 2, 10:31 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
16. Sep 1, 12:38 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
17. Sep 1, 8:59 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
18. Aug 31, 2:38 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
19. Aug 31, 1:44 PMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
20. Aug 31, 1:40 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target