Agent 20 — SIR Price/Volume

1. EASKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

   [exhaustion] The 20-day PV path showed a constructive accumulation drift from $204.89 (2026-07-08) up to a cluster settling in the $208.87–$209.91 range on routine volume (1.7M–4.9M ADV). Today's bar on 2026-08-04 prints a close of $209.70 on 48.7M shares — a volume z-score of 38.09 against a trailing 20-day mean of just 2.7M — representing roughly 18× the recent ADV on a DOWN day (−0.10%). This is a textbook exhaustion/climax signature: the price path is at a multi-week high, volume is an extreme outlier (~18× ADV, well above the 1.5× threshold), and the bar closed down, suggesting supply overwhelmed demand at the top of the cluster. Risks: The bull-regime asymmetric burden-of-proof rule requires at least two confirming criteria for a bearish label — here, criterion (1) is clearly met (price at multi-week high, volume ~18× ADV), but criterion (2) requires the 3-session sub-path to show net negative price movement on expanding volume: the last three sessions (2026-07-31 $209.86 / 4.9M, 2026-08-03 $209.91 / 4.5M, 2026-08-04 $209.70 / 48.7M) show net negative price movement on dramatically expanding volume, satisfying criterion (2) as well — so the exhaustion label is warranted despite the bull-regime rule. The primary invalidation risk is if the next 1–2 sessions absorb the volume surge and close back above $209.91 on declining volume, which would recast today's bar as a one-day anomaly (e.g., index rebalancing or large block trade) rather than a genuine distribution climax.

2. NVDASKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

   [distribution] The 20-day PV path shows a relentless down-and-right drift that is the textbook SIR distribution signature: NVDA traced a clear descent from $217.09 on 2026-10-19 to $162.82 on 2026-11-13, with down-day volume consistently dominating up-day volume at every step of the decline. The selling accelerated in a staircase of expanding volume: 2026-10-30 (168.4M, -4.22%), 2026-11-05 (306.1M, -9.26%), 2026-11-09 (462.7M, -4.27%), 2026-11-10 (429.3M, -5.47%), 2026-11-12 (742.8M, -4.34%), culminating in today's 2026-11-13 print of 3.67B shares — a volume z-score of +19.9σ above the 20-day ADV of 200.3M — on a further -2.03% close at $162.82. The up-day bounces (e.g., 2026-11-06 at 180.2M, 2026-11-11 at 339.2M) occurred on materially lower volume than the surrounding down days, confirming that rally attempts are being absorbed by sellers rather than driving net accumulation; the path in 2-D PV space traces down and to the right with no base formation visible. Risks: This bearish read would be invalidated if the 3.67B-share session on 2026-11-13 proves to be a panic-climax flush, with subsequent sessions closing above $173–$175 (the 2026-11-11 bounce high) on sustained elevated volume — that would reframe today's extreme bar as a selling-exhaustion low rather than distribution continuation. Additionally, a macro reversal — particularly a sharp steepening of the yield curve well above the current 0.24 T10Y2Y print — combined with a broad market rally could overwhelm the bearish PV path and generate a technical base regardless of this read.

3. AMDSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

   [exhaustion] The 20-day PV path tells a sharp two-act story. Act I (Oct 19–28) was a quiet drift upward from $507–$578 on subdued volume (15–28M shares/day), forming a loose price cluster in the $530–$580 band — textbook accumulation geometry. Act II began with a violent distribution cascade: Oct 30's -10.88% drop on 39.7M shares, Nov 2's -7.52% on 32.1M, and the climactic Nov 5 collapse to $404.40 on 71.2M — the path lurched sharply down-and-right, absorbing the entire prior accumulation. The attempted recovery (Nov 6–12) retraced from $449 back to $585.30 on steadily expanding but not extreme volume (45–55M), suggesting motivated buying — until today's Nov 13 bar: a -8.75% plunge to $534.09 on 226.9M shares, a volume z-score of 11.78 against a 20-day ADV of 33.9M (nearly 6.7× ADV). Today's bar is simultaneously a price reversal from a multi-week recovery high ($585.30 the prior session) and an unprecedented volume spike — the defining signature of an exhaustion/distribution climax at a recovery top, not a clean breakout. Risks: This exhaustion read is invalidated if the next 1–2 sessions see AMD close back above $560 on volume that contracts materially below today's 226.9M, which would reframe today as a shakeout/washout rather than a distribution climax; additionally, if the broader macro environment shifts to a confirmed bull regime (VIX below 20, broad index trending higher), the single-bar exhaustion signal would require multi-session confirmation before a bearish label is warranted.

4. TSLASKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

   [distribution] The 20-day PV path reveals a troubling sequence: after a constructive accumulation phase from 2026-10-19 through 2026-10-27 (price climbing from $368 to $407 on moderate up-day volumes of 32–53M), the path entered a persistent drift lower — five consecutive DOWN days from 2026-10-28 through 2026-11-05, culminating in a capitulation bar on 2026-11-05 at $343.69 on 79.7M volume. The subsequent recovery from 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-12 (six consecutive UP days, $358→$397) looked initially constructive but was notably low-volume: up-day volumes ranged only 24–36.7M against a 20-day ADV of 39.8M, suggesting the recovery lacked institutional conviction. Today's bar (2026-11-13, $390.14, 168.2M — a z-score of 9.91, over 4× the 20-day ADV) arrived as a DOWN day, with the heaviest volume in the entire 20-day window printing on a price decline — a classic distribution signal where supply overwhelms the modest-volume recovery, and the path in 2-D space curls sharply right-and-down on today's dot. Risks: The macro bull-regime asymmetry rule requires at least TWO of three bearish criteria to be met before labeling distribution: (1) today's close at $390.14 is NOT at a multi-week high (the Oct 27 high of $407.46 stands above it), so criterion 1 is only partially met; however, (2) the 3-session sub-path (Nov 11 +2.91%, Nov 12 +1.69%, Nov 13 -1.84% on 168.2M) shows net positive price but massively expanding volume on the final down day — criterion 2 is partially met; and (3) the overall 20-day path does show a clear high at $407.46 retreating to $390.14 on the heaviest volume of the period, satisfying criterion 3. Two of three criteria (the 3-session expanding down-volume and the 20-day down-from-high drift on peak volume) are clearly met, justifying the distribution label even under bull-regime rules. This read would be invalidated if the next 1–2 sessions see price reclaim $397–$407 on above-average volume, confirming today's spike as a one-day shakeout rather than distribution.

5. AZOSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

   [exhaustion_unconfirmed] Today's bar on 2026-11-13 printed 329K shares — a volume z-score of 5.55 against a 20-day ADV of 160K — yet delivered only a +0.23% price gain to $3,259.76, one of the weakest price responses to any high-volume day in the entire lookback window. That disconnect (massive volume, negligible price lift) is a classic single-bar exhaustion warning in the SIR framework. However, applying the bull-regime asymmetric burden-of-proof rule, only one of the three bearish criteria is clearly met: price is near a multi-week high and volume is well above 1.5× ADV (criterion 1 ✓), but the 3-session sub-path (Nov 11–13) shows net positive price movement (+$22.03) on expanding volume (criterion 2 ✗), and the overall 20-day path does not show a clear down-and-right drift — the trajectory from $3,097 to $3,259 is broadly upward (criterion 3 ✗). With fewer than two bearish criteria confirmed, the methodology mandates defaulting away from a bearish label; equally, the path lacks the sustained up-and-right drift or clean cluster break needed to call accumulation or cluster_break_up with confidence, so no bullish signal is warranted either. Risks: If the next 1–2 sessions fail to follow through on today's volume surge — particularly a close back below the $3,217–$3,237 support band seen on Nov 10–11 — the single exhaustion bar gains multi-session confirmation and the read flips bearish. Conversely, a continued grind higher on declining volume would confirm distribution-lite and also argue against a bullish entry.

6. DFSSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

   [distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a clear down-and-right arc: DFS opened the window near $148 on 2026-10-19 and has steadily lost ground to $129.50 by 2026-11-13, a decline of roughly 12.5% while the heaviest volume bars are overwhelmingly on down days. The two largest volume events — 2026-10-22 (505K, -4.11% to $140) and today 2026-11-13 (882K, z-score 4.81, -3.36% to $129.50) — are both down sessions, with today's print representing more than 4× the 20-day ADV of 208K on a fresh price low for the window. The intervening period (2026-11-02 through 2026-11-12) saw tepid up-day volumes (62K–148K) unable to recover price above $138.50, while the two elevated-volume days on 2026-11-11 (593K, DOWN) and today confirm sellers are repeatedly showing up with size as price discovers new lows — a textbook distribution path in 2-D PV space. Risks: This bearish read is invalidated if the next 1-2 sessions see DFS reclaim $133–$134 on volume materially above ADV, which would reframe today's spike as a capitulation/exhaustion flush rather than distribution. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 2.0σ below trend) adds an independent headwind for Financials, but a sudden steepening of the yield curve would remove that pressure and could accelerate a reversal.

7. TRVSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

   [no_pattern] The 20-day PV path for TRV traces a noisy, range-bound channel between roughly $394 and $409, with no clean directional drift in 2-D price-volume space. Up-day volume has not consistently dominated down-day volume — notably, the strong UP day on 2026-11-04 ($409.25, 1.9M) was immediately followed by two heavy-volume DOWN days (2026-11-05: $402.89/2.1M; 2026-11-06: $395.20/1.4M), negating any cluster-break-up signal. Today's bar (2026-11-13: $403.23, 3.0M, z-score 4.26) is a striking volume spike but delivers only +0.01% price movement — the lack of price follow-through on 1.9× the 20-day ADV (3.0M vs. 1.6M mean) prevents this from qualifying as a confirmed cluster breakout, and without at least one additional session confirming direction, the SIR methodology's path-based discipline requires caution. Risks: A single-session confirmation of today's volume surge with meaningful upside price follow-through (e.g., close above the Nov 4 high of $409.25 on sustained volume) would invalidate the no-pattern call and shift the read toward cluster_break_up. Conversely, the flat yield curve (T10Y2Y at 0.24, 2.0σ below trend) poses a macro headwind for Financials — if TRV rolls back below the mid-cluster level near $396–$398 on expanding volume, distribution becomes the more credible label.

8. WECSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

   [exhaustion_unconfirmed] The 20-day PV path for WEC shows a genuine bullish arc — a cluster of days (2026-10-19 through 2026-10-28) ranging from $107.00–$112.15 on subdued volume (1.7M–3.0M), followed by a powerful breakout on 2026-10-29 ($114.63, 6.5M) that launched the stock into a new price band ($115–$118). That breakout was textbook cluster_break_up, and the subsequent drift higher through early November (2026-11-02 at $116.90, 2026-11-04 at $118.11 on 3.8M) reflected quiet accumulation. However, today's bar (2026-11-13: $117.60, 7.3M, z-score +3.70) is a serious caution flag: it delivers the highest single-session volume in the 20-day window on a price change of only +0.10%, leaving the stock essentially flat relative to the Nov 4–5 highs of $118.11–$118.32. Under SIR methodology, that combination — peak-window volume on negligible price progress at a local high — is a hallmark of a single-bar exhaustion or distribution probe, and the path's inability to push above the Nov 4 close ($118.11) on 7.3M shares is a clear divergence signal. Risks: The bull read would be invalidated if the next 1–2 sessions confirm supply absorption: specifically, a close below $116.00 on volume ≥ 3.5M would constitute a two-session distributive sub-path that — combined with today's high-volume stall at the range top — would shift the pattern from unconfirmed exhaustion to confirmed distribution. Additionally, the macro backdrop (T10Y2Y at 0.24, 2.0σ below the 24-month trend, flagging a bear-flattening regime) is structurally adverse for yield-sensitive defensive utilities like WEC, reducing the probability that any near-term upside resolves sustainably over the 60–90 day horizon.

9. KDPSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

   [no_pattern] The 20-day PV path tells a messy, two-sided story rather than a clean accumulation or cluster-break. After a constructive drift up-and-right from Oct 19 through Nov 11 — with up-day volume dominance across Oct 22 (28.5M), Oct 30 (32.6M), Nov 2 (32.0M), and Nov 4 (28.6M) — the path was sharply disrupted on Nov 12, when the close collapsed -7.40% to $35.42 on 37.1M shares, the highest down-day volume in the window. Today's bar (Nov 13, +2.60% to $36.34, 50.3M shares, z-score 3.40) is an extraordinary volume spike on a recovery close, but it still leaves price well below the Nov 10–11 highs of $37.59–$38.25; the scatter dot lands at a middle price on record volume, not above a prior cluster. The two-session sub-path (Nov 12 heavy-volume breakdown, Nov 13 heavy-volume recovery to only mid-range) is directionally ambiguous — a tug-of-war rather than a resolved accumulation or breakout. Risks: A failure to reclaim and hold above the $37.59–$38.25 high zone on sustained volume in the next 2–3 sessions would confirm that Nov 12–13 represents distribution/churning rather than re-accumulation; additionally, the T10Y2Y reading of 0.24 (2.0σ below trend, bear-flattening) is a macro headwind for defensives like KDP, raising the risk that institutional demand does not follow through.

10. JCISKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path draws a clear distributional arc: JCI rallied from ~$143 to a peak of $158.27 (2026-10-29) on decent but not explosive volume (5.5M–6.1M on the 10/27–10/28 surge), then rolled over sharply. The heaviest volume days in the entire window are concentrated on the down-legs — 8.5M on 11/04 (-6.26%), 9.7M on 11/05 (-6.45%), and today's 11.0M z-score 3.30 session (-2.25% to $139.34) — while the intervening up-days (11/06–11/11) printed on declining volume (5.9M → 4.3M → 5.2M → 6.7M), never recapturing the high or the demand that drove the October peak. In 2-D PV space the path traces a classic down-and-right drift: each successive down-day brings the price dot lower and to the right (higher volume), while up-day dots remain left-of-center, confirming sellers are in control and today's 11.0M close at $139.34 is a continuation of that distributional path, not a capitulation low. Risks: This bearish read would be invalidated if the next 2–3 sessions show price reclaiming $144–$145 on volume materially above the 5.0M ADV, signaling that today's high-volume sell-off was a shakeout/capitulation rather than distribution continuation. Additionally, a broader macro reversal — such as the T10Y2Y spread widening sharply back toward its 24-month trend — could lift Industrials broadly and override the ticker-specific distributional signal.

11. UPSBUYNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-10-19 through 2026-11-12, UPS traded in a broad consolidation band roughly between $97.46 and $114.31, with daily volume predominantly in the 3.3M–7.9M range (20-day ADV ~5.3M) — forming a recognizable price-volume cluster in 2-D SIR space. Today, 2026-11-13, the path punches back to $112.43 on 11.3M shares — a volume z-score of +3.18 and more than 2× the trailing ADV — representing a decisive break back above the recent consolidation midpoint after the 2026-11-05/06 pullback (-2.86%, -2.47% on elevated volume). Critically, the multi-week path shows persistent up-day volume dominance: the strongest single-day volume surges outside today occurred on two UP days (2026-10-27: 10.9M, +5.75%; 2026-11-04: 7.9M, +4.71%), while the two most notable down days (2026-11-05: 7.7M; 2026-11-06: 6.4M) saw declining volume relative to those up-day spikes — the 2-D path tilts up-and-right overall, consistent with accumulation underpinning the cluster_break_up on 2026-11-13. Risks: A failure to hold above the $110–$111 support zone (the Nov 9–11 consolidation shelf) on subsequent sessions on any volume expansion would signal the today's volume spike was a one-day event rather than genuine demand absorption, invalidating the breakout read. Additionally, the flat T10Y2Y yield curve (0.24, 2.0σ below trend) may weigh on broad Industrial sector sentiment if it signals growth deceleration, which could drag UPS lower regardless of the technical setup.

12. KOBUYNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-10-19 through roughly 2026-11-06, KO's PV path was tightly clustered between $91.18 and $95.83 on routine volume (13.2M–22.7M), forming a clear low-volume price base. The path then began a steady grind upward through 2026-11-09 to 2026-11-12 ($96.03→$97.57) on below-average volume (13.9M–17.0M), consistent with quiet accumulation and limited supply. Today's bar on 2026-11-13 decisively breaks above that entire cluster — closing at $99.27, a new 20-day high — on 31.2M shares, a volume z-score of +2.99 versus the 20-day ADV of 18.3M, representing 1.70× the average daily volume. This classic cluster-break-up geometry — price held in a compressed band for weeks, then propelled through the ceiling on a material volume surge — is precisely the SIR two-dimensional signal for fresh demand absorbing the float. Risks: A failure to hold above the $95.50–$96.00 breakout shelf (top of the prior cluster) on any near-term pullback would invalidate the read, suggesting the volume surge was a one-day anomaly rather than genuine accumulation. Additionally, the flattening yield curve (T10Y2Y at 0.24, 2.0σ below trend) could disproportionately pressure defensive/Consumer Staples valuations if the curve re-steepens abruptly or risk appetite rotates away from defensives.

13. NSCSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a deteriorating story in two distinct acts. From 2026-10-19 through 2026-11-04, NSC drifted up-and-right on progressively lighter volume — the Oct 29 high of $342.19 printed on only 434K shares and the Nov 2 recovery to $345.68 on 892K — classic fading up-day volume that marks a topping cluster. The distribution signal then confirmed forcefully: Nov 5 collapsed -4.33% on 2.6M shares (≈2.4× the 20-day ADV), and Nov 6 added another -2.83% on 1.3M — heavy-volume selling on two consecutive down days that broke the cluster. The attempted four-day recovery (Nov 9–12, $325.82→$333.24) arrived on declining volume (1.4M → 593K), and today's bar (Nov 13, $327.90, -1.60%, 2.4M / z-score 2.82) erases nearly the entire bounce on the heaviest single-day volume since Nov 5, tilting the scatter path decisively down-and-right: higher volume, lower close. Risks: The macro regime check is relevant: if macro conditions constitute a confirmed bull regime (broad index rising, VIX below 20), the bearish call requires two of three criteria per the methodology rules — here, criteria (1) price is NOT at a multi-week high (Nov 13 close $327.90 is well below the $345.68 peak), (2) the last 3 sessions (Nov 11–13) show net negative price movement ($330.59 → $327.90, -0.81%) on the highest volume of the sub-period (2.4M on the down day) — YES, and (3) the overall 20-day path shows a clear down-and-right drift from the Nov 2 peak — YES; two criteria are met, so the distribution label survives even under bull-regime rules. This read is invalidated if NSC reclaims $333–$335 (the broken recovery highs) on volume exceeding 1.5M on an up day, signaling that today's volume was a capitulation flush rather than renewed distribution.

14. MPCSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distributional story: MPC opened the window near $473-475 on Oct 19-20 on light 1.9M volume, then the path cascaded down-and-right through a succession of heavy-volume down days — most notably Oct 27 (-7.36%, 2.9M), Nov 2 (-3.22%, 2.9M), and the capitulation cluster of Nov 4 (-8.11%, 4.0M) and Nov 5 (-3.91%, 3.2M) — driving the close to a trough of $372.74 on Nov 6. The subsequent bounce (Nov 9–13) is constructive in price (+11.3% off the low) but the volume signature on today's bar is concerning rather than confirming: Nov 13 prints 4.1M shares (z-score 2.78 vs. the trailing 20-day ADV of 2.4M) on only a +0.43% gain, suggesting supply re-entering near $414-415 rather than demand absorbing the float. The overall path from $475 to $414 on net expanding volume, with up-day volume (1.9M–2.0M on the Nov 11-12 bounces) consistently running below down-day volume, is characteristic of a distribution phase with an incomplete recovery. Risks: This bearish read would be invalidated if MPC reclaims the $440-445 prior resistance zone on sustained volume above 3M for two or more consecutive up days, signaling genuine demand re-absorption of the distributed float. Additionally, a sharp reversal in the yield curve (T10Y2Y rising materially above its 24-month trend) could lift Energy sector sentiment and compress the distributional overhang faster than the PV path currently implies.

15. TDGBUYNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-10-19 through 2026-11-06, TDG's PV path was tightly clustered between roughly $1104 and $1217 on subdued volume (ADV in the 255K–489K range), with no sustained directional drift — a classic low-volume price consolidation zone. Beginning 2026-11-09, the path broke decisively above that cluster: three consecutive UP days (Nov 9: $1218.85 / 724K, Nov 10: $1225.54 / 604K, Nov 11: $1245.00 / 564K) all printed well above the prior 20-day ADV of ~419K, confirming expanding demand absorbing the float on the upside. Today's bar (2026-11-13: $1218.06 / 741K, z-score +2.72) represents a volume-confirmed re-test and recovery of the breakout zone after Nov 12's pullback to $1203, with 741K — the highest single-day volume in the entire 20-day window — asserting that buyers are actively defending the new price level rather than distributing into the move. Risks: A sustained close back below ~$1200 (the base of the Nov 9–11 breakout) on elevated volume would signal a failed breakout and invalidate the cluster_break_up read. Additionally, the flattening yield curve (T10Y2Y at 0.24, 2.0σ below trend) could weigh on risk appetite and trigger sector rotation out of high-multiple Industrials, capping or reversing the move before the 60–90 day window closes.

16. TSNSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [distribution] The PV path tells a clear two-phase story. Phase 1 (2026-10-19 through 2026-11-04): the ticker broke out of a low-$55–$57 cluster on the highest single-bar up-volume in the window — 5.6M on 2026-11-04 (+5.39% to $60.03) — which initially read as a bullish cluster_break_up. Phase 2 (2026-11-04 through today, 2026-11-13): every subsequent session has failed to extend that breakout, and the last five trading days (2026-11-09 through 2026-11-13) show net price erosion from $59.87 → $58.87 while today's volume (5.9M, z-score 2.65 vs. 20d ADV of 3.6M) is the heaviest bar in the entire window and prints on a DOWN day — a textbook distribution signal where aggressive selling is absorbing the float at prices well off the intraday highs. The 3-session sub-path (2026-11-11: −0.70%/3.8M → 2026-11-12: −1.02%/3.2M → 2026-11-13: −0.67%/5.9M) shows net negative price movement on the heaviest-volume close of the entire 20-day period, satisfying two of the three bearish confirmation criteria even under the asymmetric macro burden-of-proof rule (price near multi-week high AND today's 5.9M is 1.64× ADV; plus 3-session sub-path is net negative on expanding volume). Risks: This bearish read is invalidated if TSN reclaims and closes above $60.03 (the 2026-11-04 breakout high) on volume at or above the 20d ADV, which would reaffirm demand absorption and re-open the cluster_break_up thesis. Additionally, the yield-curve backdrop (T10Y2Y at 0.24, 2.0σ below trend) is a mild tailwind for defensives like Consumer Staples, so a macro reversal toward steepening could reduce selling pressure and neutralize the distribution signal.

17. CTVASKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear bearish story well before today's catastrophic print. From Oct 19 through Oct 28, the path drifted steadily down-and-right — six consecutive DOWN days (Oct 21–28) on volumes ranging 14.7M–21.9M, with closes collapsing from $12.86 to $11.33 — a classic distribution drift. A brief attempted recovery (Oct 29 – Nov 4, culminating in a $12.26 close on 51.3M+ combined volume on Nov 4) was immediately rejected: Nov 5–6 saw down days on elevated volume (26.4M on Nov 6 alone), confirming supply re-emerging. The climax arrived on 2026-11-12: a -24.30% crash on 64.9M shares — nearly 3× the 20-day ADV of 22.3M — breaking the entire prior cluster (which had ranged $11.33–$12.90) in a single session. Today's 2026-11-13 bar (+2.61%, 51.3M) is a high-volume dead-cat bounce still far below the broken cluster, not a bullish path development. The overall 20-day path shows an unambiguous down-and-right drift meeting all three bearish confirmation criteria: (1) the Nov 12 bar is a multi-week low on 2.91× ADV volume; (2) the last 3-session sub-path (Nov 11 flat, Nov 12 -24.3%, Nov 13 +2.61%) shows net deeply negative price on massively expanding volume; and (3) the entire 20-day path drifts from $12.65 to $9.43 — down-and-right. Risks: This bearish read would be invalidated if today's UP bar on 51.3M volume (z-score 2.51) marks a true capitulation low, with the next 2–3 sessions holding above $9.19 on declining volume — suggesting the Nov 12 event was a one-time fundamental shock (e.g., earnings/guidance cut) now fully discounted. A close back above the broken cluster floor of ~$11.33 on strong volume would fully negate the distribution label.

18. SHWSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a story of two failed thrust attempts with deteriorating follow-through. The first surge to $363.50 on 2026-11-04 (3.2M volume, +6.64%) was immediately met by high-volume selling — 2026-11-05 printed $349.01 on 3.1M volume (-3.99%), nearly matching the up-day's volume on the reversal. The subsequent recovery to $357.93 on 2026-11-09 (2.1M) stalled and has since rolled over through 2026-11-12 ($351.39, 2.0M) and today, 2026-11-13, where SHW closed at $349.87 on a volume z-score of +2.31 (3.6M vs. 20d ADV of 2.1M) — a meaningfully above-average volume day that produced only a -0.43% decline, suggesting supply absorption is ongoing rather than exhausted. The 2-D path from Nov 4 onward drifts down-and-right: price retreating from the $363 high while volume on down days (Nov 5: 3.1M, Nov 13: 3.6M) persistently outweighs volume on up days (Nov 9–11: 2.1M, 2.0M, 1.6M), a classic distribution signature under the SIR framework. Applying the macro guard: the yield curve (T10Y2Y at 0.24, 2.0σ below trend) is in bear-flattening territory, which is a headwind for cyclical Materials names like SHW; this macro context does NOT constitute a confirmed bull regime, so the asymmetric burden-of-proof protection for bearish calls does not override the pattern read here. Risks: A reclaim of $357–$363 on volume exceeding 3.5M over 2–3 consecutive up days would invalidate the distribution read and suggest the Nov 4 high was a base rather than a top. Additionally, a sharp steepening of the yield curve (T10Y2Y rising materially above 0.30) could lift the Materials sector broadly and overwhelm the stock-specific supply overhang.

19. CLBUYNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-11-09 through 2026-11-12, CL traded in a tight price cluster between $97.90 and $98.09 on declining volume (4.8M, 4.4M, 4.8M, 3.2M — all well below the 20-day ADV of 4.9M), forming a classic low-volume consolidation band just under $98. Today, 2026-11-13, the stock broke decisively above that cluster to close at $99.68 on volume of 7.7M — a z-score of 2.31 above the trailing 20-day mean — confirming fresh demand absorbing the float on the breakout. The broader 20-day path also shows an underlying accumulation structure: after bottoming near $91.69 on 2026-10-28, the dominant up-day sessions (notably 2026-10-30 at 8.8M, 2026-11-04 at 5.7M, and today) each carried above-average volume, while most down-day sessions registered subdued volume, consistent with institutional accumulation driving the up-and-right drift in 2-D PV space. Risks: A failure to hold above the $97.90–$98.09 cluster zone on subsequent sessions — especially on a high-volume reversal day — would invalidate the breakout and suggest the 2026-11-13 bar was a false move or distribution under strength. Additionally, the flat yield curve (T10Y2Y at 0.24, 2.0σ below trend) signals a risk-off macro environment that could weigh on risk appetite broadly and compress the follow-through window, particularly if defensives begin to rotate out in a re-steepening scenario.

20. BURLSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clearly distributive story. The sequence from 2026-10-19 through 2026-10-28 shows a persistent price decline from $262.74 to $234.02 on consistently elevated down-day volume (1.3M–1.6M on 10/22–10/28), while up-day recoveries were thin and volume-light (e.g., 10/29 bounce to $242.36 on only 1.1M). The lone bullish flash — 11/04's +7.70% gap to $258.38 on 1.7M — was immediately sold into, with the subsequent sub-path (11/05 through today, 11/13) printing net –6.1% on progressively heavier volume culminating in today's –3.59% close at $242.83 on 1.8M (z-score +2.12 vs. 20d ADV of 1.2M). Down-day volume dominance is unambiguous: the path drifts down-and-right, with the heaviest volume sessions (10/26 1.6M, 10/27 1.6M, 11/04 1.7M, 11/05 1.6M, today 1.8M) consistently associated with either declining closes or failed rallies — the textbook SIR distribution signature. All three bearish confirmation criteria are met: (1) today's bar is near recent cluster highs with volume 1.5× ADV; (2) the last 3 sessions (11/11 $256.29/807K → 11/12 $251.87/889K → 11/13 $242.83/1.8M) show net –5.3% on sharply expanding volume; and (3) the overall 20-day path shows a clear down-and-right drift from $262.74 to $242.83. Risks: A reclaim of the $252–$258 zone (the post-11/04 consolidation band) on above-average up-day volume would invalidate the distribution read and suggest the sell-off is a shakeout rather than a rollover. Additionally, if the macro backdrop shifts to a steepening yield curve (T10Y2Y recovering toward trend) it could lift Consumer Discretionary broadly and overwhelm the stock-specific PV signal.

21. CSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [no_pattern] The 20-day PV path for C shows a range-bound, noisy trajectory between roughly $118–$126 with no clean directional drift. The most noteworthy structural event was the sharp -5.04% down-day on 2026-11-05 on massive 17.0M volume (nearly 1.85× the 20-day ADV of 9.2M), which looked distributional, but was largely recovered over the subsequent sessions (2026-11-09 through 2026-11-11, up-days on declining volume of 9.1M → 8.2M → 5.2M), preventing a clean distribution label. Today's bar (2026-11-13, close $124.01, volume 16.1M, z-score 2.09) is a volume spike on a near-flat day (-0.04%), which does not constitute a clean cluster break-up — price is not clearing a prior base on fresh demand but instead churning at the top of the recent range on heavy supply-side activity. The 3-session sub-path (2026-11-11 $124.21 / 5.2M → 2026-11-12 $124.06 / 6.1M → 2026-11-13 $124.01 / 16.1M) shows net negative price movement on sharply expanding volume, a mild warning, but price is not at a definitive multi-week high and the overall 20-day path lacks a clear down-and-right drift, so the bearish exhaustion/distribution threshold (≥2 of 3 criteria) is not fully met. Risks: A sustained close below the $121–$122 support zone (last tested 2026-10-23 at $120.62) on above-average volume would confirm distribution and invalidate any residual bullish read. Additionally, the yield-curve context (T10Y2Y at 0.24, 2.0σ below trend) is a structural headwind for Financials/Banks — a further flattening or re-inversion would pressure net interest margin expectations and could accelerate selling into today's high-volume churn.

22. BMYBUYNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-10-26 through 2026-11-12, BMY's PV path formed a tight cluster roughly between $60.57 and $63.13 on subdued volume (ranging 6.4M–10.3M, well below the 20-day ADV of 10.2M), with the notable exceptions of a brief spike on 2026-11-04 ($64.19, 14.1M) that failed to hold. Today, 2026-11-13, the stock closes at $63.43 — breaking above the dominant cluster range — on 15.2M shares, a volume z-score of +2.00 and nearly 50% above the 20-day ADV, signaling fresh demand absorbing the float. Reinforcing the read, the broader accumulation sub-path from 2026-10-29 through 2026-11-02 showed three consecutive UP days ($61.39→$62.48→$63.02) on robust volume (14.8M, 12.7M, 10.8M), establishing an up-and-right drift in 2-D PV space that today's bar now extends with confirming volume expansion. Risks: A failure to hold above the $62.00–$62.50 cluster floor on a subsequent high-volume down day would indicate distribution disguised as a breakout and would invalidate the cluster_break_up read. Additionally, the T10Y2Y at 0.24 (2.0σ below trend) signals a flattening yield curve that historically pressures defensive Health Care multiples, so any macro deterioration or renewed curve inversion could suppress follow-through buying over the 60–90 day horizon.

23. AFLBUYNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [accumulation] The 20-day PV path traces a persistent up-and-right drift consistent with SIR accumulation: the path begins in a $118–$121 cluster on subdued volume (1.2M–1.6M ADV range, Oct 19–26), then steadily ratchets higher through $123–$127 as up-day volume dominates. Critically, the heaviest volume sessions — Nov 4 (2.6M, +1.02% to $125.30), Nov 5 (2.3M, +0.75% to $126.24), and today Nov 13 (2.4M, +0.88% to $127.62, z-score +1.80) — are all UP days, while the down days (Oct 23 1.6M, Nov 6 2.0M, Nov 12 1.2M) show declining volume on the most recent pullbacks, particularly the Nov 11–12 two-day quiet retreat on only 1.3M and 1.2M respectively. Today's 2.4M close at a new 20-day high of $127.62, breaking above the $126–$127 consolidation on above-average volume, extends the up-and-right accumulation path and suggests persistent institutional demand absorbing the float. Risks: A reversal below $124–$125 (the Nov 4–9 support band) on volume exceeding 2.5M would signal distribution replacing accumulation and would invalidate the bullish read. Additionally, the T10Y2Y at 0.24 (2.0σ below trend) introduces macro headwind for Financials — a further flattening or inversion of the yield curve could pressure AFL's earnings outlook and weigh on the PV path regardless of near-term technical structure.

24. COFSKIPNov 13, 4:21 PM

    [distribution] The 20-day PV path paints a textbook distribution arc: COF peaked at $210.77 on 2026-11-02 on solid 5.0M volume, but the subsequent decline through 2026-11-13 is dominated by high-volume down days — most critically, 2026-11-04 saw 8.7M shares change hands on a -1.15% close, 2026-11-09 printed 7.4M on a -1.63% drop, and 2026-11-05 added 5.7M on another -1.20% loss. Up-day volume in the same stretch is comparatively starved: the two up days at the tail (2026-11-11 at 3.4M, today 2026-11-13 at 7.3M) show today's bounce is on elevated volume, but the broader path has drifted decisively down-and-right, with closes falling from ~$210 to ~$195 while aggregate down-day volume towers over up-day volume — the defining SIR signature of institutional distribution. Today's 7.3M up-day bar (z-score 1.75) is a single dot and does not reverse the multi-session down-right trajectory; the methodology demands path confirmation, not a lone counter-session. Risks: The distribution call would be invalidated if COF reclaims $203–$205 on sustained expanding up-day volume (≥6M) across two or more consecutive sessions, signaling renewed absorption of supply. Additionally, a macro regime shift — such as the T10Y2Y spread steepening sharply back toward its 24-month trend — would remove the yield-curve headwind that is currently pressuring Financials/Banks and could trigger a re-rating of the bearish read.

Nothing on the watchlist right now.

1. Nov 15, 9:00 AMPEPvia finnhub

   4 Durable Dividend Stocks Retirees Can Count On for Passive Income

2. Nov 15, 9:00 AMKOvia finnhub

   4 Durable Dividend Stocks Retirees Can Count On for Passive Income

3. Nov 15, 8:32 AMCvia finnhub

   How Much Does a 61-Year-Old Federal Retiree Need in the TSP to Collect $8,000 a Month With a Pension?

4. Nov 15, 8:19 AMCvia finnhub

   Citi Expects Data Center Construction Growth to Continue Despite Rising Costs and Regulatory Delays

5. Nov 15, 8:15 AMTSLAvia finnhub

   Tesla Is Down 13% in 2026 While the S&P 500 Is Up. Here’s the 1 Catalyst Left This Year That Could Flip That.

6. Nov 15, 7:57 AMAVGOvia finnhub

   Is Credo Technology a Better AI Networking Buy Than Broadcom?

7. Nov 15, 7:53 AMMETAvia finnhub

   Italy Fines Meta €805 Million. Why the Legal Route Matters More Than the Money

8. Nov 15, 7:50 AMCLXvia finnhub

   How Many Shares of Kimberly-Clark, Clorox or Procter & Gamble Pay $1,000 a Month in Dividends?

9. Nov 15, 7:45 AMAMDvia finnhub

   The Evidence Is Piling Up: AMD Could Be the Best Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Amid the Sell-Off

10. Nov 15, 7:35 AMGOOGvia finnhub

    Why falling AI token prices aren’t the negative for AI providers one might assume

11. Nov 15, 7:35 AMGOOGLvia finnhub

    Why falling AI token prices aren’t the negative for AI providers one might assume

12. Nov 15, 7:25 AMWMvia finnhub

    These 4 Waste and Services Stocks Collect Recurring Revenue

13. Nov 15, 7:06 AMMETAvia finnhub

    Meta (META) Faces $880 Million Italy Fine Over User Photo Access

14. Nov 15, 6:52 AMGOOGvia finnhub

    A $5.9 Billion Fund Bought These 3 Stocks

15. Nov 15, 6:52 AMDHRvia finnhub

    A $5.9 Billion Fund Bought These 3 Stocks

16. Nov 15, 6:52 AMGOOGLvia finnhub

    A $5.9 Billion Fund Bought These 3 Stocks

17. Nov 15, 6:50 AMPEPvia finnhub

    Kraft Heinz vs. PepsiCo: Which Consumer Goods Stock Is a Better Buy for 2027?

18. Nov 15, 6:00 AMMMMvia finnhub

    Plastics, Package Makers Press Congress on Recycling Bills as Clock Ticks

19. Nov 15, 5:50 AMAAPLvia finnhub

    Want to Invest in Top Growth Stocks Like Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft but Avoid Nvidia? Consider This Low-Cost Vanguard ETF That’s Up 24.8% This Year.

20. Nov 15, 5:30 AMCOFvia finnhub

    Preferred Stocks Are Yielding Up to 8% After a Selloff. Why It’s a Buying Opportunity.

21. Nov 15, 5:10 AMTSLAvia finnhub

    3 Growth Stocks With Revenue Growth Over 18%

22. Nov 15, 4:40 AMAMDvia finnhub

    Anthropic Just Delivered Great News for AMD Investors and Bad News for Nvidia

23. Nov 15, 4:37 AMMUvia finnhub

    Micron, Amazon, and IBM: My 3 Favorite Stocks to Buy and Hold Through 2030

24. Nov 15, 4:30 AMAMDvia finnhub

    Street Calls of the Week

25. Nov 15, 4:00 AMMETAvia finnhub

    From Dodge to Anthropic: The Century-Old Playbook Taking Over Tech IPOs

26. Nov 15, 3:59 AMTSLAvia finnhub

    This Week in TSLA: 24/7 Robotaxis, Cybertruck-Based SUV, $10 Billion Solar Bet and More

27. Nov 15, 3:58 AMGOOGLvia finnhub

    Consumer Tech (Nov 9-13): Jensen Resigns From Nvidia Amid Affair Controvery, Microsoft Faces Massive Outage & More

28. Nov 15, 3:58 AMCRWDvia finnhub

    Consumer Tech (Nov 9-13): Jensen Resigns From Nvidia Amid Affair Controvery, Microsoft Faces Massive Outage & More

29. Nov 15, 3:30 AMAAPLvia finnhub

    5 big analyst AI moves: Nvidia hit with downgrades after Huang’s exit

30. Nov 15, 3:09 AMAMPvia finnhub

    Ameriprise Financial (AMP) Highlights Adviser Demand, Is The Stock Still Cheap?

1. Nov 15, 9:26 AMmarket · severity 3/5

   Nvidia and Anthropic expected to drive AI sector momentum in the week ahead.

   Tickers:NVDA
2. Nov 15, 7:00 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

   EV makers skeptical of Democratic restoration of federal EV support after midterm elections.

   Tickers:TSLA
3. Nov 15, 2:40 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

   Houthis gain control near critical Bab el-Mandeb Strait; shipping and energy routes at risk.

   Tickers:COPCVXBALMT
4. Nov 14, 10:25 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

   Iran attacks US base; Bahrain issues threat alerts, raising Middle East tensions and oil market risks.

   Tickers:COPCVXAPAMPC
5. Nov 14, 5:29 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

   Israeli military strikes senior Hamas commander in ongoing Middle East conflict.

6. Nov 14, 12:48 PMcompany · severity 4/5

   Nvidia leadership crisis impacts AI sector; S&P 500 gains 2.5% weekly despite tech turbulence.

   Tickers:NVDA
7. Nov 14, 9:00 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

   Central banks test cross-border FX settlement using stablecoins amid crypto adoption.

8. Nov 13, 6:22 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

   Trump plans to discuss nuclear-arms cuts with Putin and Xi on Thursday.

9. Nov 13, 4:02 PMpolicy · severity 4/5

   October PPI misses expectations; Fed hawkish concerns ease amid softer inflation data.

10. Nov 13, 3:46 PMpolicy · severity 3/5

    US extends 90-day shipping waiver to facilitate oil and commodity movement.

    Tickers:COPCVXAPACTRACSXODFL
11. Nov 13, 12:11 PMmarket · severity 3/5

    US consumer spending shows signs of weakness across eight key economic indicators.

    Tickers:COSTPEPSBUXMDLZBACCWMT
12. Nov 13, 10:22 AMmarket · severity 4/5

    Nvidia earnings post-leadership change and Anthropic IPO drive critical macro signals.

    Tickers:NVDA
13. Nov 13, 9:34 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed's Goolsbee debate energy's contribution to inflation dynamics.

14. Nov 13, 7:30 AMpolicy · severity 4/5

    US October PPI comes in slightly below expectations at 6.5%, signaling modest inflation moderation.

15. Nov 13, 7:26 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    FTC plans lawsuit to block $3.5B Covetrus-MWI merger.

1. Nov 13, 4:20 PMSIR PV: 63 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 38 → watchlist) — 7 bought, 18 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 1 position exits processed.
2. Nov 12, 4:20 PMSIR PV: 75 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 50 → watchlist) — 7 bought, 18 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
3. Nov 11, 4:20 PMSIR PV: 76 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 51 → watchlist) — 10 bought, 15 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
4. Nov 10, 4:20 PMSIR PV: 85 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 60 → watchlist) — 7 bought, 18 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
5. Nov 9, 4:20 PMRegime gate (VIX in the 95th percentile (>80%) — stress regime, no new longs.). 0 exits processed; no new entries.
6. Nov 6, 4:20 PMRegime gate (VIX in the 98th percentile (>80%) — stress regime, no new longs.). 0 exits processed; no new entries.
7. Nov 6, 2:55 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
8. Nov 6, 9:26 AMSIR PV: 261 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 236 → watchlist) — 0 bought, 25 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
9. Nov 6, 8:35 AMSIR PV: 261 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 236 → watchlist) — 0 bought, 25 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
10. Nov 5, 4:20 PMSIR PV: 286 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 261 → watchlist) — 1 bought, 24 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
11. Nov 5, 12:45 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
12. Nov 5, 12:07 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
13. Nov 5, 11:20 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
14. Nov 5, 10:40 AMClosed by janitor — finished_at was NULL after 3847s.
15. Nov 4, 4:20 PMRegime gate (VIX in the 85th percentile (>80%) — stress regime, no new longs.). 2 exits processed; no new entries.
16. Nov 3, 4:20 PMRegime gate (VIX in the 86th percentile (>80%) — stress regime, no new longs.). 0 exits processed; no new entries.
17. Nov 3, 9:31 AMRegime gate (VIX in the 86th percentile (>80%) — stress regime, no new longs.). 0 exits processed; no new entries.
18. Nov 3, 8:50 AMSIR PV: 174 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 149 → watchlist) — 10 bought, 15 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
19. Nov 2, 4:20 PMSIR PV: 170 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 145 → watchlist) — 11 bought, 14 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 2 position exits processed.
20. Oct 30, 5:20 PMSIR PV: 349 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 324 → watchlist) — 12 bought, 13 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 1 position exits processed.