Scorecard
Open Positions
(44)Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.
Open Positions
(44)Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.
- 7 sh × $199.70 ($1,398 cost)$214.35$1,500+$102.55+7.34%
- 12 sh × $101.98 ($1,224 cost)$93.10$1,117−$106.56−8.71%
- 7 sh × $229.96 ($1,610 cost)$255.34$1,787+$177.66+11.04%
- 21 sh × $76.37 ($1,604 cost)$74.87$1,572−$31.50−1.96%
- 16 sh × $73.11 ($1,170 cost)$75.08$1,201+$31.52+2.69%
- 4 sh × $307.82 ($1,231 cost)$329.29$1,317+$85.88+6.97%
- 11 sh × $192.57 ($2,118 cost)$187.91$2,067−$51.32−2.42%
- 3 sh × $717.89 ($2,154 cost)$692.81$2,078−$75.23−3.49%
- 7 sh × $231.90 ($1,623 cost)$237.95$1,666+$42.35+2.61%
- 8 sh × $190.45 ($1,524 cost)$189.15$1,513−$10.40−0.68%
- 4 sh × $292.93 ($1,172 cost)$300.80$1,203+$31.48+2.69%
- 44 sh × $47.43 ($2,087 cost)$51.23$2,254+$167.20+8.01%
- 31 sh × $55.38 ($1,717 cost)$68.36$2,119+$402.38+23.44%
- 9 sh × $256.42 ($2,308 cost)$278.24$2,504+$196.38+8.51%
- 46 sh × $52.21 ($2,402 cost)$53.80$2,475+$73.14+3.05%
- 2 sh × $1,018.86 ($2,038 cost)$983.17$1,966−$71.38−3.50%
- 49 sh × $36.15 ($1,771 cost)$37.45$1,835+$63.46+3.58%
- 14 sh × $125.84 ($1,762 cost)$124.81$1,747−$14.42−0.82%
- 9 sh × $133.97 ($1,206 cost)$141.46$1,273+$67.41+5.59%
- 118 sh × $14.98 ($1,768 cost)$17.76$2,096+$328.04+18.56%
- 9 sh × $216.30 ($1,947 cost)$238.20$2,144+$197.10+10.12%
- 62 sh × $31.70 ($1,965 cost)$33.20$2,058+$92.69+4.72%
- 73 sh × $25.38 ($1,853 cost)$25.72$1,877+$24.45+1.32%
- 86 sh × $20.31 ($1,747 cost)$21.90$1,883+$136.74+7.83%
- 5 sh × $323.87 ($1,619 cost)$320.91$1,605−$14.83−0.92%
- 9 sh × $182.57 ($1,643 cost)$177.66$1,599−$44.24−2.69%
- 20 sh × $92.55 ($1,851 cost)$91.58$1,832−$19.40−1.05%
- 20 sh × $79.55 ($1,591 cost)$80.83$1,617+$25.60+1.61%
- 11 sh × $203.04 ($2,233 cost)$226.43$2,491+$257.29+11.52%
- 12 sh × $148.20 ($1,778 cost)$146.61$1,759−$19.08−1.07%
- 17 sh × $107.47 ($1,827 cost)$99.38$1,689−$137.53−7.53%
- 53 sh × $24.74 ($1,311 cost)$25.48$1,350+$39.06+2.98%
- 9 sh × $192.38 ($1,731 cost)$208.98$1,881+$149.40+8.63%
- 29 sh × $64.49 ($1,870 cost)$66.72$1,935+$64.67+3.46%
- 3 sh × $488.11 ($1,464 cost)$496.61$1,490+$25.50+1.74%
- 26 sh × $67.35 ($1,751 cost)$70.86$1,842+$91.26+5.21%
- 61 sh × $21.55 ($1,315 cost)$22.85$1,394+$78.99+6.01%
- 21 sh × $81.93 ($1,721 cost)$81.29$1,707−$13.44−0.78%
- 9 sh × $186.64 ($1,680 cost)$192.77$1,735+$55.13+3.28%
- 15 sh × $118.07 ($1,771 cost)$119.38$1,791+$19.72+1.11%
- 8 sh × $215.01 ($1,720 cost)$213.63$1,709−$11.08−0.64%
- 31 sh × $52.75 ($1,635 cost)$54.72$1,696+$61.07+3.73%
- 19 sh × $61.09 ($1,161 cost)$69.40$1,319+$157.89+13.60%
- 7 sh × $251.49 ($1,760 cost)$231.16$1,618−$142.31−8.08%
Closed Positions
(13)Every position this agent has closed, win or lose. Click any to see why it was opened and closed.
Closed Positions
(13)Every position this agent has closed, win or lose. Click any to see why it was opened and closed.
Prompt performance
Closed-position stats broken out by the prompt version that authored each buy.
| Prompt | Trades | W / L / S | Win rate | Avg P/L % | Total P/L | Avg hold | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unknown | 13 | 1 / 12 / 0 | 7.7% | -8.23% | -$1,920 | 4d | Jun 1, 2026 → Jun 26, 2026 |
Recent activity
(24)What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.
Recent activity
(24)What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a textbook distribution arc: BLK ground from ~$990 up to $1,057 (Jun 3–Jun 17) on progressively shrinking up-day volume — the six consecutive UP days from Jun 11 through Jun 17 averaged only ~630K shares, well below the 785K trailing ADV — while down-day volume has been persistently elevated. The path then rolled over sharply, with the two most recent sessions (Jun 23: -3.46% on 1.4M; Jun 24: -3.27% on 1.3M) both printing well above ADV (volume z-score of 2.31 today), confirming that sellers are absorbing supply on expanding volume at successively lower closes. In the 2-D scatter, the path drifts up-and-left during the rally (price rising, volume contracting) then pivots down-and-right (price falling, volume expanding) — the canonical SIR distribution signature. Risks: This bearish read would be invalidated by a swift reclaim of the $1,020–$1,032 zone (Jun 12 close) on above-ADV up-day volume, suggesting the recent selling was a shakeout rather than distribution. Additionally, the macro backdrop — 10-year breakevens printing 2.21, roughly 2σ below trend — is a deflationary signal that, if it reverses sharply higher on a risk-on catalyst, could disproportionately lift rate-sensitive Financials and overwhelm the bearish PV setup.
[no_pattern] The 20-day PV path for DD is dominated by extreme, unexplained price dislocations that destroy any coherent 2-D scatter signal. The stock traded in a tight $45–$48 cluster from 2026-05-27 through 2026-06-15 on routine volume (2.2M–4.7M), then lurched to $144.12 on 2026-06-16 on only 1.0M shares — well below the cluster's average volume — before crashing back to $46.67 on 2026-06-23 on 3.4M and immediately rebounding to $137.86 on 2026-06-24 on just 1.4M (z-score −1.36 vs. trailing 20-day ADV of 3.0M). Under SIR's framework, today's +195% close on sub-average volume does not constitute a cluster_break_up (the break lacks expanding volume) and the repeated, violent round-trips between ~$47 and ~$144 produce an incoherent scatter path — the 2-D dot sequence offers no directional accumulation or distribution narrative. This pattern is more consistent with a corporate event (spin-off, rights issue, or data error) than with any tradeable demand/supply dynamic. Risks: The primary risk to any read here is that the price series reflects a structural corporate event (e.g., a reverse split, spin-off distribution, or share-class reclassification) rather than open-market price discovery, which would render SIR's PV methodology entirely inapplicable. If the data is clean and the swings are genuine, the absence of volume confirmation on both the up-legs (1.0M on 2026-06-16, 1.4M on 2026-06-24) means any further collapse back toward the $46–$48 zone would go uncontested by institutional demand.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a clear distributive arc: price peaked at $338.75 on 2026-06-15 while up-day volumes were shrinking (2026-06-12 at 1.2M, 2026-06-17 down-day at 1.3M), then the path tilted decisively down-and-right as selling accelerated. The June 23rd bar delivered a -3.51% down-day on 2.3M volume, and today's close of $317.07 arrives on a volume spike of 5.1M (z-score +5.60 vs. the 20-day ADV of 2.1M) — but critically, that extraordinary volume is registered on a DOWN day, not an up-day breakout, placing the dot in the lower-right quadrant of the 2-D scatter. Under SIR's framework this is a high-volume down-bar confirming distribution/selling pressure rather than absorption, and the overall path from the $338 cluster has moved relentlessly down-right, the textbook distributive signature. Risks: A single-session reversal closing materially above $325 on comparable or higher volume (≥4M) would suggest climax-selling/capitulation and could flip the read toward accumulation — the most dangerous invalidation of a distribution call. Additionally, the macro tailwind of a 10Y breakeven inflation rate 2.0σ below trend could compress discount rates and lift long-duration Industrials, partially offsetting the bearish PV signal.
[exhaustion] Today's bar (2026-06-18, close $143.63, volume 7.1M, z-score +4.34) represents a dramatic volume spike — roughly 2× the prior highest single-day volume in the 20-day window (2026-05-29's 6.5M down-day) — but it arrives on a -1.67% down close from a recent price peak of $146.07 on 2026-06-17. In 2-D PV space, the path had been drifting up-and-right modestly since late May (closes rising from $138.98 on 2026-05-21 to $146.07 on 2026-06-17) but on consistently unremarkable volume (ADV ~3.0–3.8M on most up-days). The final dot — highest volume by a wide margin, yet a down-close reversing from the price peak — is a classic exhaustion/climax signal: the float is being absorbed by sellers, not buyers, at the top of the range. Risks: This exhaustion read would be invalidated if the next 1–2 sessions recapture $146+ on comparable or expanding volume, suggesting today's spike was panic selling absorbed by institutional buyers rather than distribution. Additionally, the macro backdrop of a 10-year inflation breakeven 2.0σ below trend (2.21 on 2026-06-23) could provide an unexpected tailwind for rate-sensitive Financials if the market re-prices duration risk favorably.
[exhaustion_top_reversal] The PV path traced a clear up-and-right arc from the $72–$75 cluster in late May/early June to successive highs at $79.99 (2026-06-15), $80.51 (2026-06-16), and $81.70 (2026-06-18) — a zone where volume was only modestly elevated (2.3–2.6M vs. the 1.9M ADV). Today, 2026-06-24, the path violently reverses: price collapses −8.80% to $72.94 on 4.3M shares (volume z-score +4.26σ), the single largest-volume session in the 20-day window by a wide margin. In SIR 2-D space the dot rockets far down-and-right — a textbook distribution/climax-selling bar that undoes two weeks of gains in a single session, landing back at the price levels of 2026-05-27 ($72.97) on more than double the typical daily volume. The preceding sessions (2026-06-22: 1.2M down, 2026-06-23: 2.1M down) already showed down-day volume creeping higher as price softened from the $81.70 high, a early distribution signal before today's decisive break. Risks: A bullish re-read would require today's bar to prove a capitulation low — confirmed only if the next 1–3 sessions show a high-volume reversal back above $75–$76 on expanding up-day volume; without that, the path remains distributive and a sustained breakdown below $72 would open air to the upper $60s. The macro backdrop (10Y inflation breakevens 2.0σ below trend as of 2026-06-23) adds a deflationary/demand-slump headwind that could pressure Industrials earnings revisions, further invalidating any near-term recovery thesis.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] The 20-day PV path shows a well-defined price cluster forming between roughly $126.31 and $129.75 from 2026-06-02 through 2026-06-17, with volume consistently ranging between 3.5M and 6.1M — all near or below the 20-day ADV of 5.2M. The path then broke decisively upward on 2026-06-22 ($130.30, 6.6M, +2.04%) and accelerated further on 2026-06-23 ($133.74, 10.4M, +2.64%), the latter printing a volume z-score of 3.48 versus trailing mean — nearly double the cluster-period ADV. This two-session up-and-right surge, departing a tight low-volume consolidation zone and printing the highest closes in the 20-day window on the two highest-volume days, is a textbook cluster_break_up under the SIR 2-D framework. The macro tailwind of the 10-year inflation breakeven (T10YIE) at 2.21 — 2.0σ below trend — further supports long-duration rate-sensitive utilities, reducing the discount-rate headwind for AEP's equity duration. Risks: A reversal back below the $129–$130 cluster ceiling on elevated volume (particularly a high-volume down day exceeding 8M shares) would signal the 2026-06-23 bar was an exhaustion/distribution event rather than a genuine breakout. Additionally, any unexpected hawkish repricing of inflation expectations that pushes T10YIE back toward its 24-month trend would undercut the rate-sensitive macro tailwind supporting utilities.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distributive story. After peaking at $433.25 on 2026-06-16 on modest 2.0M volume, the path pivoted sharply lower through a sequence of five consecutive down days (Jun 17–23), with two of those sessions — Jun 17 (-3.52%, 2.1M), Jun 18 (-1.70%, 2.9M), and Jun 22 (-0.86%, 2.9M) — printing above-average volume on price declines, the hallmark of sellers pressing into weakness rather than buyers stepping up. Today's Jun 24 bar (close $402.56, +0.60%, 3.6M; z-score 3.18) is a high-volume single up-day, but it arrives after the price has already fallen ~$30 from the Jun 16 peak and has not yet broken back above any prior cluster level; a single-session bounce on elevated volume following a sharp decline more plausibly signals a short-covering/relief pop than a genuine accumulation entry, and SIR methodology demands path confirmation across multiple sessions, which is entirely absent here. Risks: A sustained reclaim of the $418–$424 cluster range (the Jun 8–15 consolidation zone) on persistently expanding up-day volume over several sessions would invalidate the distributive read and suggest genuine demand re-entering. Additionally, the macro tailwind from the 10-year breakeven (2.21%, -2.0σ vs. 24-month trend) could disproportionately lift long-duration-sensitive financials like SPGI if rates compress further, potentially masking the weak underlying PV structure.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a relentless down-and-right trajectory: from a local high of $35.40 on 2026-06-03, the scatter moves steadily lower through $33.23 (2026-06-15), $31.73 (2026-06-18), $30.33 (2026-06-23), and finally $29.38 today — a cumulative decline of ~17% in roughly three weeks. Critically, the heaviest volume bars are almost uniformly DOWN days: 2026-05-29 (17.2M, -2.93%), 2026-06-18 (17.4M, -2.37%), 2026-06-12 (15.9M, +0.65% — a token up day on high vol suggesting absorption stall), and today's 21.0M (z-score +2.94 vs 20-day ADV of 12.4M, -3.13%) — the largest volume in the window arriving on the largest down-day close. UP days throughout the path were consistently low-volume (e.g., 2026-06-08 at 6.8M, 2026-06-01 at 10.5M), confirming sellers are in control and buyers are absent. Today's volume spike does not represent fresh demand; it represents accelerating supply, consistent with a distribution/breakdown pattern rather than a washout capitulation with immediate reversal potential. Risks: A reversal above ~$31.50–$32.00 on meaningfully expanding UP-day volume over multiple sessions would challenge the distribution read and suggest a potential exhaustion washout is complete. The macro backdrop — 10-year breakeven inflation (T10YIE) printing 2.21%, roughly 2.0σ below trend — could paradoxically support a Materials re-rating if interpreted as a deflationary demand shock bottoming, which would invalidate the continued bearish path.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path is dominated by a sustained downward drift from $28.63 on 2026-05-27 to $26.73 today, with the most damaging sessions occurring on expanding volume — notably 2026-05-29 (13.1M, DOWN), 2026-06-18 (19.4M, -3.49% DOWN), and 2026-06-22 (12.9M, DOWN) — a textbook distribution signature where the heaviest volume accompanies price declines. Up-days in the cluster (e.g., 2026-06-05 at 8.7M, 2026-06-09 at 10.0M, 2026-06-12 at 10.9M) show materially lower volume than the dominant down-days, confirming sellers are in control. Today's two-session bounce (2026-06-23 at 14.4M, +2.03%; 2026-06-24 at 17.7M, +0.41%) arrives on elevated but decelerating volume — the path has not broken above the $28+ cluster on expanding volume, and the bounce is occurring well below the prior price range, giving no cluster_break_up signal. Risks: A sustained reclaim of the $27.50–$28.00 prior support zone on consecutive up-days with volume clearly exceeding the 19.4M down-day print of 2026-06-18 would invalidate the distributive read and suggest genuine demand absorption. Additionally, the 10-year inflation breakeven (T10YIE at 2.21, -2.0σ below trend) is a modest tailwind for long-duration real estate, meaning a macro re-rating could override the technical distribution if rate-sensitive flows accelerate into REITs.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-05-27 through 2026-06-08, DRI's PV path clustered tightly in the $193–$206 price band on consistently subdued volume (704K–1.2M, mostly sub-1.0M), forming a clear low-volume consolidation zone. Beginning 2026-06-09, the path began drifting up-and-right with up-days carrying notably stronger volume than down-days: the June 11 surge to $210.84 on 1.3M and the June 18 push to $213.45 on 1.9M (a volume z-score proxy well above the 20d mean of 1.2M) represented meaningful volume expansion on price progress. Today, 2026-06-24, DRI reclaimed $213.39 on 1.9M shares (z-score +2.29 vs. the 20d ADV of 1.2M), re-asserting the breakout after the brief June 22–23 pullback on declining volume (2.1M on a down-day is the one caveat, but June 23's retreat came on only 1.2M), collectively tracing a cluster-break-up path out of the prior $193–$206 base. Risks: A failure to hold above the $208–$210 breakout shelf on a return to elevated volume would signal distribution and invalidate the cluster-break-up read; additionally, the June 22 high-volume down-day (2.1M on -0.68%) bears watching — if that session proves to be early distribution rather than a shakeout, the path tilts bearish.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-06-03 through 2026-06-08, UAL formed a tight price cluster in the $104.94–$105.73 range on notably subdued volume (3.7M–4.2M), well below the 20-day ADV of 5.9M — a classic low-activity consolidation node in 2-D PV space. The path then began drifting up-and-right through mid-June, with up-days on 2026-06-11 (close $112.61, vol 6.8M), 2026-06-15 (close $119.97, vol 7.7M), 2026-06-18 (close $118.32, vol 6.8M), and 2026-06-22–23 showing persistent, if quieter, accumulation. Today, 2026-06-24, UAL closed at $130.54 on 9.3M shares (z-score +2.08 vs. trailing 20-day mean), a decisive break above the entire recent price structure on materially expanded volume — the archetypal cluster_break_up: the PV path escapes a well-defined lower cluster to a new high on the heaviest buying volume seen across the full 20-day window. The multi-session up-drift preceding today's break provides the confirming path context that SIR's framework demands beyond a single-bar event. Risks: A reversal back below the $118–$120 breakout shelf on elevated volume in the next 1–3 sessions would signal a failed breakout and likely distribution, invalidating the bullish read entirely. Additionally, the macro tailwind from the 2.0σ low in 10-year inflation expectations (T10YIE 2.21 on 2026-06-23) could reverse quickly if inflation data surprises to the upside, removing a key support for long-duration and travel-sensitive names like UAL.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-05-27 through 2026-06-12, EXPE's PV path formed a well-defined low-volume cluster between ~$218.94 and ~$231.06, with daily volumes largely ranging from 975K to 1.8M (ADV ~1.5M) — a tight horizontal band in 2-D price-volume space signaling absorbed supply and rotational quiet. Beginning 2026-06-15, the path began to migrate up-and-right with a series of expanding-volume up days ($236.98 on 1.7M, $243.56 on 1.8M), and a notably high-volume up day on 2026-06-18 (3.0M, close $240.90) that showed demand absorbing a ~$5 gap from the cluster. Today, 2026-06-24, the path delivers a decisive cluster break: close $262.19 on 2.4M volume (z-score +1.93 vs. trailing 20-day ADV of 1.6M), a +6.99% surge that lifts price ~$16 above the prior breakout zone — consistent with SIR's "cluster_break_up" signature of fresh demand absorbing the float on meaningfully elevated volume. The macro tailwind of a 10-year inflation breakeven (T10YIE) printing 2.21 — 2.0σ below the 24-month trend — provides an additional low-rate-sensitive tailwind for Consumer Discretionary names like EXPE, reducing the discount rate drag on forward travel demand. Risks: The primary invalidation risk is a single-session nature of today's spike: under SIR's framework, a one-bar break without follow-through confirmation (i.e., if the next 2-3 sessions fail to hold above the $245–$248 breakout shelf on declining or average volume) would recast today as exhaustion rather than a durable breakout. Additionally, a rapid mean-reversion in T10YIE back toward trend, or a sector-specific demand shock (e.g., deteriorating travel booking data), could undermine the fundamental underpinning of the volume-backed move.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a cautionary story in three acts. First, a low-volume rally from ~$46.15 (2026-06-02) to a close high of $49.69 (2026-06-10) was built almost entirely on sub-4M ADV days — thin, unconfirmed demand. Second, the subsequent six-session decline from $49.69 to $45.73 (2026-06-22) featured progressively heavier volume, culminating in a striking 15.6M-share day on 2026-06-18 at only +0.32% — a textbook distribution bar where massive supply was absorbed with almost no net price progress. Third, while the last two sessions (2026-06-23: +3.61% on 3.8M; 2026-06-24: +0.40% on 9.3M) show some recovery, today's elevated volume (z-score 1.62, 9.3M vs 4.7M ADV) produced a mere 0.40% gain after a large up-day yesterday, suggesting the bulk of that volume is supply meeting demand rather than fresh accumulation — the path has not escaped the $45.73–$47.61 congestion zone carved out during distribution. Risks: A sustained close above $49.69 (the 2026-06-10 high) on expanding up-day volume exceeding ~8M shares across multiple sessions would invalidate the distributive read and suggest genuine re-accumulation. Additionally, the macro tailwind from the 10-year inflation breakeven printing 2.0σ below trend (2026-06-23) could disproportionately lift long-duration Consumer Staples like MKC if real-rate compression accelerates, undermining the bearish PV signal.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distributional story. After a sharp price surge to $102.44 on 2026-06-01 (4.1M volume), the stock has failed to recover that high and has been making progressively lower closes — now at $96.34, well below the June peak. Crucially, the heaviest volume days are clustered on down or weak sessions: 2026-06-18 printed a monster 7.1M-share day on only a +0.68% close (a textbook "churning" day — massive volume, almost no price progress), followed by elevated down-day volume on 2026-06-22 (4.5M, -2.35%), 2026-06-23 (4.6M, nominally up but could not hold), and today 2026-06-24 (5.5M, -1.68%). The path in PV-space is drifting down-and-right: expanding volume accompanying lower closes, exactly the SIR distribution signature where sellers are offloading supply under the cover of two-way activity. Risks: A decisive reclaim of the $100–$101 zone on volume materially above the 3.5M ADV would invalidate the distributional read and suggest the 2026-06-18 spike was accumulation rather than churning. Additionally, the macro backdrop — 10-year inflation expectations printing 2.0σ below trend on 2026-06-23 — could act as a tailwind for rate-sensitive equities, potentially compressing the downside and muddying the bearish PV signal.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-06-09 through 2026-06-17, KMB's PV path formed a tight cluster in the $100.52–$104.28 range on progressively declining volume (3.7M, 3.4M, 3.2M, 3.5M, 4.5M, 3.0M), reflecting low-conviction consolidation after a sharp recovery from the early-June lows (~$94.47 on 2026-06-04). Today's bar on 2026-06-24 breaks decisively above that cluster — closing at $106.74 on 7.5M shares (volume z-score +1.58 vs. the 20-day ADV of 4.8M), representing the highest close in the 20-day window on the second-highest volume day. Critically, the two highest-volume up-days in the window (2026-06-18 at 8.9M, +1.07%; and today at 7.5M, +2.68%) both close higher, while the two heaviest-volume down-days (2026-05-29 at 8.7M, -2.54%; 2026-06-03 at 6.7M, -2.80%) are now well below the current price level — suggesting the distribution selling pressure has been absorbed and fresh demand is driving the breakout. Risks: A failure to hold above the $103–$104 cluster top on any retest — especially if accompanied by volume expansion on down-days — would negate the breakout and suggest the 2026-06-24 surge was a one-session exhaustion move rather than a genuine cluster break. Additionally, the macro signal (10-year inflation breakevens at 2.0σ below trend) could compress nominal yields and pressure defensive Consumer Staples valuations if disinflation accelerates and rotates flows away from the sector.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a clear distributive story. After a sharp high-volume rally (Jun 4: +3.68% on 2.6M; Jun 5: +3.14% on 1.7M) that drove CI to a peak near $298 on Jun 12, the subsequent decline has been dominated by elevated down-day volumes while up-day volumes contract markedly — Jun 17 (-2.33%) on 1.0M and Jun 18 (-2.04%) on 2.4M signal sellers absorbing the float, while the brief two-day recovery Jun 22–23 (+1.01% on 1.5M, +0.35% on a feeble 760K) showed no buying conviction whatsoever. Today, Jun 24, confirms the distribution read: price closes at $279.57 (-1.24%) on 2.2M — nearly 1.5× the 20-day ADV (z-score +1.55) — repricing back below the Jun 4 breakout close of $280.68 and effectively erasing the cluster-break-up that briefly appeared, with volume expanding on the down-move rather than on recoveries. Risks: A sustained recapture of the $285–$290 zone on volume materially above 2.0M across multiple up-days would invalidate the distribution read and suggest renewed accumulation. The macro tailwind of a 2-sigma drop in 10-year inflation expectations (T10YIE at 2.21) could compress discount rates and disproportionately lift long-duration health care names, potentially accelerating a reversal that the current PV path does not yet support.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a distributive story rather than an accumulative one. The early-window rally from ~$2935 (2026-05-29) to $3137.75 (2026-06-09) was achieved on declining volume — the strongest up-day in that stretch (2026-06-01, +2.92%) drew only 447K shares, well below the trailing ADV of 476K — while the first heavy-volume session of the window (2026-06-08, 718K) was a down day closing at $3074. The path then turned overtly distributive: the two largest single-day volume prints in the entire table — 2026-06-18 (1.0M, +0.16% — essentially flat) and 2026-06-22 (1.0M, -3.77%, close $2949) — represent classic distribution under cover, with the float being absorbed by sellers at elevated price levels. The two-day recovery on 2026-06-23 (819K, +3.30%) and 2026-06-24 (874K, +1.46%) is encouraging in isolation but does not yet erase the bearish PV path: the path is bouncing off a sharp selloff, not breaking out of a low-volume cluster, and both recovery bars carry elevated volume that could equally reflect relief-rally selling as genuine accumulation. Risks: A sustained move back above $3137 (the 2026-06-09 high) on expanding volume exceeding the 1.0M distribution days would invalidate the distributive read and suggest genuine demand absorption. Conversely, any failure of the $2949 low (2026-06-22) on renewed heavy volume would confirm distribution and pose meaningful downside risk.
[distribution] The PV path tells a clear distributive story. After PFG climbed from the ~$101–$103 cluster in early June to a peak of $112.36 on 2026-06-23, the two highest-volume sessions in the window are both DOWN days: 2026-06-18 saw 3.4M shares on a -0.59% close (the single largest volume bar in the 20-day window), and today, 2026-06-24, printed 2.1M shares (z-score +1.48 vs. the 1.2M ADV) on a sharp -5.07% decline back to $106.66 — erasing roughly three weeks of gains in a single session. Meanwhile, the up-leg from June 4–23 was powered almost exclusively by sub-1M volume days (e.g., June 11: 1.0M, June 12: 894K, June 16: 916K, June 23: 936K), meaning the advance lacked genuine institutional conviction. In SIR's 2-D space, the path traces a classic distribution arc: price rising on shrinking volume, then retreating on surging volume — the hallmark of supply overwhelming demand at the highs. Risks: This bearish read would be invalidated if PFG reclaims the $109–$111 range on above-average volume (>1.5M) within the next 2–3 sessions, suggesting today's gap-down was a news-driven flush rather than genuine distribution. Additionally, the macro tailwind of a 10-year inflation breakeven printing 2.0σ below trend (2.21 on 2026-06-23) could compress discount rates and disproportionately lift financials, potentially supporting a recovery that overrides the negative PV signal.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-06-02 through 2026-06-23, BKNG traced a tight 20-day cluster predominantly in the $160–$175 range on subdued, mostly below-ADV volume (5.9M–9.5M), with the notable exception of the high-volume anomaly on 2026-06-18 (18.4M shares, but on a near-flat +0.09% close — a potential failed distribution attempt). Today, 2026-06-24, price broke decisively above the entire cluster at $181.22 (+7.27%) on 11.9M shares — a volume z-score of +1.43 versus the trailing 20-day ADV of 8.2M — clearing the prior cluster ceiling near $175.72 (2026-06-16 high) on meaningfully expanding demand. Under SIR's 2-D framework, the path now shows a clean break up-and-right out of a well-defined low-volatility price band, which is the hallmark of the cluster_break_up pattern. The macro tailwind of a 10-year breakeven inflation print 2.0σ below trend (2.21 on 2026-06-23) further compresses the discount rate for Consumer Discretionary, supporting the directional move. Risks: This is a single-bar event on only moderate volume expansion (z-score 1.43, not the 2.0+ that would confirm institutional urgency), and SIR methodology cautions that one breakout dot without multi-session follow-through is fragile; a return below the prior cluster ceiling at ~$175 on rising volume would fully invalidate the read and suggest the 2026-06-18 high-volume stall was in fact distribution. Additionally, the 2026-06-18 session (18.4M shares, near-zero price gain) remains an unresolved bearish anomaly in the path that could indicate trapped supply just above current levels.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-05-27 through 2026-06-17, PHM's PV path was tightly clustered in the $117–$125 price band on subdued, mostly sub-1.5M volume, forming a well-defined low-volume consolidation zone. The 2026-06-18 surge to $126.96 on anomalously high volume (5.3M, ~3.1× ADV) hinted at an attempt to break free, but was followed by two quiet retracement days ($125.62 and $126.55) on volumes of 1.6M and just 857K respectively — a healthy pullback that reset the float without distribution. Today, 2026-06-24, price broke decisively above the entire prior cluster to $135.72 (+7.25%) on 2.9M volume (z-score +1.34 vs. the 20-day mean of 1.7M), confirming that the June 18 thrust was not exhaustion but rather the first leg of a two-step cluster_break_up: the quiet retest (June 22–23) absorbed remaining sellers at low volume, and today's expanding-volume breakout to a new high completes the SIR pattern. The path through 2-D space — long low-volume cluster → high-volume thrust → low-volume retest → higher-volume breakout — is a textbook bullish sequence. Risks: A failure to hold above the $126–$127 breakout level (the top of the prior cluster and the June 18 close) on any near-term pullback would signal a false break and invalidate this read entirely. Additionally, the macro tailwind from 10-year inflation expectations printing 2.21 (2σ below trend) favors long-duration/rate-sensitive names, but any sharp reversal in rates or a deterioration in housing-sector data could quickly unwind the consumer discretionary bid in PHM.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [accumulation] Over the 20-day path, TECH has traced a persistent up-and-right drift: the stock climbed from $48.09 (2026-05-27, 2.2M) to $58.86 (2026-06-24, 3.8M), a ~22% gain, with up-day volume consistently dominating down-day volume. Specifically, the four largest volume sessions — 2026-06-04 (4.2M, +4.58%), 2026-06-08 (4.4M, +1.27%), 2026-06-09 (3.6M, +3.34%), and today 2026-06-24 (3.8M, +4.62%) — were all UP days, while down-day volume was consistently muted (e.g., 2026-06-10 at 2.6M, 2026-06-16 at 1.5M, 2026-06-22 at 2.0M). Today's close at $58.86 on 3.8M (z-score +1.30 vs. the 20-day mean of 2.8M) marks a new path high on expanding volume, consistent with institutional accumulation rather than a single-bar anomaly. The macro tailwind — 10Y inflation expectations 2.0σ below trend (2.21 on 2026-06-23) — further supports long-duration Health Care names like TECH, as compressed real yields typically benefit growth-oriented healthcare multiples. Risks: A reversal back below the $56–$54 support band on elevated volume (>3.5M) would signal distribution overwhelming the accumulation read and invalidate the setup. Additionally, if 10Y inflation expectations snap back sharply toward trend, the macro tailwind for long-duration Health Care names would dissipate, removing a key supporting factor.
[exhaustion] Today's bar (2026-06-24, close $85.41, +11.31%) is a dramatic single-session price extreme, yet it arrives on volume of only 3.1M — a volume z-score of just +0.18 vs. the trailing 20-day mean of 2.7M, meaning volume is essentially unremarkable relative to recent history. Under SIR's framework, a genuine cluster_break_up requires materially expanding volume to confirm fresh demand absorbing the float; here, the volume did not confirm the price surge. The prior 20-day path itself is not an accumulation story either — the scatter shows a persistent drift downward from $77.47 (2026-05-27) to a cluster of closes in the $73–$79 range through 2026-06-23, punctuated by a high-volume down-day on 2026-05-29 (10.2M shares on a -0.60% close, a classic distribution signal), and repeated high-volume down-days on 2026-06-17 (3.6M, -3.30%) and 2026-06-22 (2.1M, -4.05%); up-day volume was consistently subdued throughout. The single large jump today, unsupported by volume expansion, raises the possibility of a gap/news-driven move that has already consumed near-term buying power rather than marking the start of a sustained advance. Risks: The primary risk to this cautious read is that today's move is catalyst-driven (e.g., earnings, guidance raise, macro surprise) and the next 2–3 sessions confirm follow-through on expanding volume, which would retroactively validate a cluster_break_up and invalidate the exhaustion/no-confirmation read. Conversely, a failure to hold the $80–$82 range on above-average volume in the days ahead — particularly a high-volume reversal back into the prior $73–$79 cluster — would confirm distribution and further erode the bull case.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path for GLW is characterized by violent, high-volume reversals rather than any coherent accumulation or clean cluster break. The two largest up-days — Jun 2 (+13.41%, 18.2M) and Jun 18 (+11.13%, 22.8M) — were both followed almost immediately by heavy-volume selling: Jun 5 (-10.18%, 15.7M) wiped out the Jun 2 thrust, and Jun 23 (-7.51%, 14.2M) gave back much of the Jun 18–22 rally. Today's close of $205.81 on 17.3M (z-score only +1.08, barely above the 20-day mean ADV of 13.4M) does not constitute a confirming breakout leg — it is a rebound from a one-day selloff (Jun 23), with volume unremarkable relative to recent sessions. Critically, the PV path traces an erratic, whipsaw trajectory with down-day volume (Jun 5 15.7M, Jun 9 16.7M, Jun 23 14.2M) repeatedly matching or rivaling the volume on up-days, a classic signature of distribution and institutional supply overhanging the market. Risks: A sustained multi-session advance above the $209.83 Jun 22 high on volume materially exceeding 20M+ would invalidate the distributive read and suggest genuine demand absorption. Additionally, the deeply depressed 10-year inflation breakeven (T10YIE at 2.21, -2.0σ) represents a macro tailwind for long-duration assets like GLW; a surprise re-rating of growth expectations could accelerate price away from the supply zone faster than the PV path currently implies.
[distribution] The 20-day PV path traces a clear distributional descent: ENPH opened the window at $66.90–$70.28 on strong up-volume (11.7M and 11.3M on 2026-05-26/27), but every subsequent rally has been met with fading up-day volume and expanding down-day volume. The catastrophic -18.01% gap on 2026-06-05 (10.4M) reset the price axis to the $50–$57 band, and the sole meaningful recovery — +9.42% on 2026-06-18 on 14.0M — was immediately surrendered: the path moved right-and-down on 2026-06-22 (5.9M, nearly flat) and then plunged again today to $47.22 on 6.3M (z-score -0.56), a new closing low for the window. The scatter path describes a staircase lower with no persistent up-and-right drift; down-days dominate in both frequency (13 of 20) and price displacement, and no session since the June cluster has produced a higher close on convincingly expanding volume — the hallmark of distribution, not accumulation. Risks: A sustained reclaim of the $54–$57 June cluster on volume meaningfully above the 7.9M ADV across multiple sessions would challenge this bearish read. Additionally, the macro backdrop — 10-year inflation expectations printing 2.21%, 2.0σ below trend — could rapidly reprice long-duration growth names like ENPH to the upside if the deflationary signal reverses or risk appetite surges.
Watching
(0)Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Watching
(0)Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Nothing on the watchlist right now.
Relevant news
(30)Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
Relevant news
(30)Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
Wall Street Just Supersized Its Price Target on Intel. Is the Stock Still Too Cheap?
Wall Street Just Supersized Its Price Target on Intel. Is the Stock Still Too Cheap?
Alphabet shares jump after joining Dow Jones Industrial Average
New AI Cold War?! Did Google Really ‘Throttle’ Zuckerberg’s AI Access?
Talen Energy, Stock Of The Day, Delivers For Amazon, AI Data Centers
Alphabet Adds $168 Billion on Dow Debut as Indexes Shake Off Volatility
This CIO Says the AI Bubble Pops the Moment Good News Stops Moving Stocks
AbbVie (ABBV) Stock After 1-Year 41% Rally And Apogee Deal Valuation Check
Amazon climbs as Adobe data points to stronger-than-expected Prime Day demand
Invesco EQV European Equity Fund's Strategic Moves: Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Takes Center Stage
Update: Market Chatter: Amazon Could Face Higher Costs Under Renegotiated Anthropic Deal
Companies Are Spending $11.5 Million a Year on AI and Can’t Prove a Single Dollar Came Back
Tech giants are not going to slash their AI spending plans, bullish tech analyst says
Tech giants are not going to slash their AI spending plans, bullish tech analyst says
Alphabet joins Dow Jones Industrial Average, shares rise 3.7%
Alphabet joins Dow Jones Industrial Average, shares rise 3.7%
Alphabet joins Dow Jones Industrial Average, shares rise 3.7%
Macro & geopolitical context
(15)High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.
Macro & geopolitical context
(15)High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.
- Jun 29, 10:27 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Kalshi traders predict upcoming jobs report will miss Wall Street consensus expectations.
- Jun 29, 9:46 AMcompany · severity 3/5
BNY Mellon expands stablecoin services for institutions, supporting USDC.
Tickers:BK - Jun 29, 7:40 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
U.S. envoys Kushner and Witkoff to meet Iran in Doha negotiations.
- Jun 29, 6:24 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
US-Iran de-escalation channels established ahead of diplomatic talks.
- Jun 29, 5:01 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
EU's MiCA deadline threatens unlicensed crypto firms with regulatory wipeout.
- Jun 29, 1:19 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
South Korea commits $518 billion to AI chips, outpacing crypto sector investment.
- Jun 29, 1:03 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Bitcoin declines to $59,700 as Iran tensions ease, benefiting equities over crypto.
- Jun 29, 12:31 AMpolicy · severity 4/5
BIS warns AI investment surge poses systemic financial risk via leveraged debt structures.
- Jun 29, 12:02 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Iranian cyberattacks on Israel escalated in 2026, raising regional security concerns.
- Jun 28, 9:48 PMpolicy · severity 4/5
BOJ aligns monetary policy with Japanese government's economic growth targets.
- Jun 28, 9:22 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
China blacklists 20 Japanese entities in dual-use export restrictions; normal trade unaffected.
- Jun 28, 8:40 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
US-Iran tensions ease temporarily; oil rallies while equities remain choppy.
- Jun 28, 8:31 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Iran tensions and Fed rate outlook impact Indian rupee and bond markets.
- Jun 28, 8:26 PMpolicy · severity 4/5
South Korea announces $650B AI and semiconductor investment plan signaling structural global chip demand.
- Jun 28, 6:35 PMsector · severity 3/5
Philippines accelerates solar deployment amid surging power costs globally.
Recent runs
(20)Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
Recent runs
(20)Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
- Jun 29, 8:28 AMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
- Jun 29, 8:25 AMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
- Jun 29, 8:13 AMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
- Jun 26, 12:29 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Jun 26, 8:37 AMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
- Jun 25, 3:16 PMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
- Jun 25, 3:11 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Jun 25, 2:27 PMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
- Jun 24, 5:05 PMSIR PV: 85 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 60 → watchlist) — 8 bought, 17 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
- Jun 23, 7:10 PMSIR PV: 96 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 71 → watchlist) — 2 bought, 23 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
- Jun 22, 5:05 PMSIR PV: 153 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 128 → watchlist) — 7 bought, 18 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
- Jun 18, 5:04 PMSIR PV: 78 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 53 → watchlist) — 2 bought, 23 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
- Jun 17, 5:05 PMSIR PV: 202 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 177 → watchlist) — 2 bought, 23 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
- Jun 16, 5:25 PMSIR PV: 42 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 17 → watchlist) — 0 bought, 25 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
- Jun 16, 5:05 PMClosed by janitor — finished_at was NULL after 4150s.
- Jun 15, 5:05 PMSIR PV: 91 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 66 → watchlist) — 3 bought, 22 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
- Jun 12, 7:30 PMSIR PV: 61 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 36 → watchlist) — 4 bought, 21 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.
- Jun 11, 5:03 PMRegime gate (VIX in the 88th percentile (>80%) — stress regime, no new longs.). 0 exits processed; no new entries.
- Jun 11, 8:37 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Jun 10, 7:31 PMSIR PV: 125 trigger(s), analyzed 25 (capped, 100 → watchlist) — 5 bought, 20 skipped, 0 cache reuse, 0 failed. 0 position exits processed.