No. I · Vol. I
Tuesday, May 12, 2026

The Ledger

A paper-trading practice in the tradition of weekly Sunday charts.

Portfolio
$997,470
-$2,530 (-0.25%)
Markets
DIA-0.01%IWM-1.59%QQQ-1.73%SPY-0.61%VXX-0.60%IEF-0.33%GLD-1.21%USO+3.72%UUP+0.48%DIA-0.01%IWM-1.59%QQQ-1.73%SPY-0.61%VXX-0.60%IEF-0.33%GLD-1.21%USO+3.72%UUP+0.48%
Wires·
Standing by — markets watched, no fresh items.

Agent VII — Day Trader

Connecting…

Trades intraday momentum continuation; hard-closes by 3:45 PM ET

Market: SP500 · Started with $100,000

Equity
$99,887
Cash
$97,916
Positions
$1,972
1 open
Total P/L
-$113
−0.11%
Closed Trades
3
0 winners · 3 losers
Realized P/L
-$110
Win Rate
0.0%

How this agent thinks

Plain English. Skip the jargon, read this first.

Watches the S&P 500 every 15 minutes during the trading day. Looking for stocks moving 2-5% since yesterday's close — enough motion to be interesting, but not so much that the easy money has already been made. When one shows up, the agent gathers any breaking news and the broader market context, then asks Claude: 'Given everything you can see, will this move keep going through the close, or is it about to fade?' If Claude says continuation is at least 60% likely AND the direction matches the move, the agent takes a position — long if up, short if down. Risk-managed tightly: every position has a -1.5% stop and a +3% target, and the entire book is force-closed by 3:45 PM ET every day, no exceptions. Zero overnight risk. Maximum 5 positions at any one time, each sized at 2% of total equity. By design, the book is always empty at the next morning's open.

Methodology

The rules as a quant trader would describe them.

Trades intraday momentum continuation — opens during the session, hard-closes by 3:45 PM ET. Never holds overnight.

  • Triggers on universe names with intraday moves between 2% and 5% (fresh momentum, but not exhausted). Smaller moves aren't tradable; larger ones are usually already gone.
  • On each trigger, asks Claude: "Given the move so far, recent news, and macro context, what's the probability this direction continues into the close?" Buys only when Claude's direction matches the move AND continuation_probability ≥ 60%.
  • Sizing: 2% of NAV per position. Max 5 concurrent positions. Exits: -1.5% stop, +3% target, OR forced close at 3:45 PM ET — whichever comes first.
  • Runs every 15 minutes during market hours via its own routine (separate from the daily orchestrator). Uses Twelve Data's /quote endpoint for live intraday percent_change. Pure intraday: position book is always empty at the next morning's open.

Universe: S&P 500 starter set (same as the dip buyers and options agent) · Capital: $100,000

Currently held (1)

Every position this agent has open right now, with the thesis it logged at entry.

  • CSCOlongopened May 11, 2026-$3
    20 sh @ $98.72 · current $98.59 · stop $97.24

    CSCO is up ~2.23% ahead of Q3 earnings, with a headline explicitly flagging the stock as a buy candidate before earnings — suggesting the move is driven by pre-earnings positioning and sector momentum in networking. The broader market is also risk-on today (equities rising, Trump-Xi summit optimism) which provides a macro tailwind. With 390 minutes remaining (essentially a full trading day session ahead), there is ample time for continued drift higher as more investors position ahead of the earnings catalyst, though elevated inflation expectations (T5YIE 1.9σ above trend) could cap the upside for rate-sensitive tech names.

Recent decisions — acted

Entries, exits, rotations the agent committed to.

No recent acted decisions.

Recently considered — skipped

Candidates the agent looked at and chose not to act on. The rationale tells you what it weighed.

  1. May 12, 2:01 PMORCLdecide

    There are no recent headlines or identifiable catalysts explaining ORCL's -4.41% decline today, making it difficult to assess whether this is a fundamental repricing or a technical/liquidity-driven move. The macro context (elevated 5-year inflation expectations) is not directly bearish for ORCL as a tech/enterprise software name, offering no clear directional signal. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close cutoff, even if a thesis existed, there is limited time for meaningful continuation, and late-session mean-reversion is plausible in the absence of a clear catalyst.

  2. May 12, 2:01 PMAMDdecide

    AMD is down 4.41% but recent headlines actually skew positive for AI/chip demand, with Wedbush reinforcing AI tailwinds — this creates a potential mean-reversion setup rather than a continuation catalyst. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close, there is limited time for the downtrend to extend meaningfully, and late-session dip-buying in high-profile AI names is common. The elevated 5Y inflation breakeven (2.62, ~1.9σ above trend) adds macro uncertainty but is not a direct chip-sector headwind, leaving the directional edge unclear.

  3. May 12, 2:01 PMAVGOdecide

    There are no recent headlines or clear catalysts explaining the ~3.3% decline in AVGO, making it difficult to assess whether this is a fundamentally-driven move or noise/sector rotation. The macro context (elevated 5Y inflation expectations) is not directly relevant to semiconductor names like AVGO. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close, there is limited time for meaningful continuation even if a catalyst were present, and mean-reversion into the close is a common intraday pattern for large-cap tech names without confirmed news.

  4. May 12, 2:01 PMTSLAdecide

    There are no recent headlines or clear catalysts explaining the -3.23% move in TSLA today, making it difficult to assess whether selling pressure has a fundamental driver that would sustain into the close. The macro context (elevated 5-year inflation expectations at 1.9σ above trend) is not directly bearish for TSLA and does not provide a clear directional signal. With only 45 minutes remaining and no identifiable catalyst, mean-reversion or stabilization is roughly as likely as continuation, so confidence in a directional call is low.

  5. May 12, 2:01 PMCRMdecide

    There are no recent headlines or clear fundamental catalysts explaining today's ~3.1% decline in CRM, making it difficult to assess whether this is a sustained move or a low-volume drift. The macro context (elevated 5Y inflation expectations) is more relevant to commodities and TIPS than to enterprise software, providing no directional signal for CRM specifically. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close cutoff, even if a thesis existed, limited time reduces the probability of meaningful continuation.

  6. May 12, 2:01 PMABBVdecide

    ABBV is up 2.73% with no accompanying news headlines to explain the move, making it difficult to attribute the gain to a clear fundamental catalyst that would drive further continuation. The macro context (elevated 5-year inflation expectations) is not directly relevant to a large-cap pharma/biotech name like ABBV. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close, there is limited time for meaningful additional upside even if the move were catalyst-driven, and without a clear story the risk of mean reversion or profit-taking into the close is elevated.

  7. May 12, 2:01 PMLLYdecide

    LLY has moved up 2.55% today but there are no recent headlines or clear catalysts explaining the move, making it difficult to assess whether this is fundamentally driven or a technical/flow-based rally. The macro context (elevated 5-year inflation expectations) is not directly supportive of pharma/large-cap biotech continuation. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close cutoff, there is limited time for meaningful additional upside even if momentum persists, and late-day profit-taking risk is elevated after a ~$25 intraday gain.

  8. May 12, 2:01 PMNFLXdecide

    There are no recent headlines or clear catalysts explaining the 2.53% move in NFLX today, making it difficult to assess whether this is momentum-driven or a low-conviction drift. The macro context references elevated inflation expectations (T5YIE at 1.9σ above trend), which is not a direct tailwind for growth/tech names like NFLX and could create mild headwinds. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close, there is limited time for meaningful continuation even if the setup were stronger.

  9. May 12, 2:01 PMUNHdecide

    UNH is up 2.44% with no recent headlines to explain the catalyst, making it difficult to assess whether this move has fundamental support or is simply mean-reverting noise. The macro context (elevated inflation expectations via T5YIE) is not directly relevant to a managed care/health insurance name like UNH. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close, there is limited time for the move to extend meaningfully, and without a clear catalyst, the risk of intraday reversal or fade into the close is elevated.

  10. May 12, 2:01 PMCOSTdecide

    COST has made a solid 2.17% intraday move with no identifiable news catalyst or earnings event to anchor continuation — this raises the possibility of a gap-fill or mean-reversion into the close. The macro context highlights elevated 5-year inflation expectations (2.62, ~1.9σ above trend), which is broadly neutral-to-negative for consumer discretionary/staples like Costco rather than a tailwind. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close cutoff, there is limited time for meaningful continuation even if the setup were stronger.

  11. May 12, 2:01 PMWMTdecide

    WMT is up 2.14% with no identifiable headline catalyst driving the move, making it difficult to assess whether this is sustainable momentum or a gap-fill/institutional repositioning event. The macro context (elevated 5Y inflation expectations at 1.9σ above trend) is not directly bullish for a consumer staples/retail name like WMT and offers no clear sector tailwind. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close cutoff, there is limited runway for meaningful continuation even if the thesis were clearer, and without a catalyst, mean-reversion risk is non-trivial.

  12. May 12, 2:01 PMKOdecide

    KO has moved up 2.07% today with no identifiable headline catalyst to explain the move, suggesting this may be a gap or sector rotation rather than a news-driven momentum trade. The macro context highlights elevated inflation expectations (T5YIE 1.9σ above trend), which is modestly negative for consumer staples like KO as a defensive yield proxy relative to TIPS and commodities. With only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close, there is limited runway even if the setup were favorable, making continuation less actionable.

  13. May 12, 1:45 PMORCLdecide

    There are no recent headlines or clear fundamental catalysts to explain the -4.56% move in ORCL today, making it difficult to assess whether selling pressure has a narrative driver that would sustain it into the close. The macro context (elevated 5-year inflation expectations) is not directly bearish for a large-cap tech/software name like Oracle. With only 60 minutes remaining and no identifiable catalyst, the move may reflect morning institutional selling or thin liquidity rather than a sustained trend, suggesting limited additional downside conviction.

  14. May 12, 1:45 PMAMDdecide

    AMD is down 4% but the macro news environment is broadly constructive for AI/chip names — Wedbush's positive AI demand commentary and Intel's massive intraday gain suggest sector sentiment is not uniformly negative, creating reversal risk. The drop may reflect a gap or early-session pressure rather than a sustained catalyst specific to AMD, as no AMD-specific negative news appears in the headlines. With only 60 minutes remaining until the forced close, there is limited time for the move to extend meaningfully, and mean-reversion into the close is common in the absence of a clear ticker-specific catalyst.

  15. May 12, 1:45 PMTSLAdecide

    There are no recent headlines or catalysts explaining the ~3.5% decline in TSLA today, making it difficult to assess whether this is a fundamental move or noise/technical selling. The macro context (elevated 5-year inflation expectations) is not directly bearish for TSLA specifically. With only 60 minutes remaining until the forced close, there is limited time for a meaningful continuation, and without a clear catalyst, mean-reversion or stabilization into the close is equally plausible.

Watching (0)

Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.

Nothing on the watchlist right now.

Relevant news

Recent headlines on the tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.

  1. May 11, 2:51 PMAMDvia finnhub

    Big tech earnings reinforce strength of AI demand across chips, cloud and software: Wedbush

  2. May 11, 2:14 PMAMDvia finnhub

    Stock Market Today: Dow Up; Intel Gain Reaches 260%; Dividend Play Tests Entry (Live Coverage)

  3. May 11, 1:50 PMCSCOvia finnhub

    Nearly 40% of Trump’s China CEO Delegation Have Crypto Ties

  4. May 11, 1:12 PMWMTvia finnhub

    Is Walmart (WMT) Overvalued After Strong Long Term Returns And Recent Steady Share Price Gains

  5. May 11, 1:05 PMTSLAvia finnhub

    Which S&P500 stocks are the most active on Monday?

  6. May 11, 1:05 PMAMDvia finnhub

    Which S&P500 stocks are the most active on Monday?

  7. May 11, 1:04 PMCSCOvia finnhub

    Equities Rise Intraday, Oil Jumps as Markets Montior Middle East Developments

  8. May 11, 12:39 PMCSCOvia finnhub

    Buy Cisco Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings? Here's What to Know

  9. May 11, 12:38 PMTSLAvia finnhub

    Musk, Cook Set to Join Trump for Xi Summit, White House Says

  10. May 11, 12:38 PMCSCOvia finnhub

    Musk, Cook Set to Join Trump for Xi Summit, White House Says

  11. May 11, 12:22 PMWMTvia finnhub

    Stock Market Today: Dow Firm, Moderna Eyes Entry Amid Virus Pop; Intel Gain Reaches 260% (Live Coverage)

  12. May 11, 12:22 PMAMDvia finnhub

    Stock Market Today: Dow Firm, Moderna Eyes Entry Amid Virus Pop; Intel Gain Reaches 260% (Live Coverage)

  13. May 11, 12:20 PMORCLvia finnhub

    Advanced Micro Devices and Other Growth Stocks Are Flying High. History Says Hold on to Them.

  14. May 11, 12:20 PMAMDvia finnhub

    Advanced Micro Devices and Other Growth Stocks Are Flying High. History Says Hold on to Them.

  15. May 11, 12:20 PMUNHvia finnhub

    Advanced Micro Devices and Other Growth Stocks Are Flying High. History Says Hold on to Them.

  16. May 11, 12:20 PMLLYvia finnhub

    Advanced Micro Devices and Other Growth Stocks Are Flying High. History Says Hold on to Them.

  17. May 11, 12:19 PMTSLAvia finnhub

    Tesla Robotaxi Rollout And Korea EV Growth Test Market Optimism

  18. May 11, 12:11 PMNFLXvia finnhub

    Texas sues Netflix over data collection; shares edge lower

  19. May 11, 12:00 PMAMDvia finnhub

    AMD Rises on Server CPU Supercycle Call

  20. May 11, 11:59 AMAVGOvia finnhub

    Micron Rallies as Memory Chip Shortage Fuels AI Demand

  21. May 11, 11:49 AMCSCOvia finnhub

    S&P 500 Companies' Quarterly Profit Growth Slows, But Remains Strong, Oppenheimer Says

  22. May 11, 11:33 AMKOvia finnhub

    Kroger adds exclusive new Coca-Cola rival soda

  23. May 11, 11:33 AMKOvia finnhub

    Will PepsiCo Foods North America Drive a 2026 Turnaround?

  24. May 11, 11:31 AMUNHvia finnhub

    Optum Rx Introduces Industry’s First Transparent Pharmacy Care Model

  25. May 11, 11:29 AMCRMvia finnhub

    VestGen Wealth Partners: A Tech Stack Designed for Planning, Efficiency

  26. May 11, 11:13 AMAMDvia finnhub

    AI Chipmaker Cerebras Could Raise Up To $5.52 Billion in Upsized IPO

  27. May 11, 11:00 AMTSLAvia finnhub

    ‘Too early’ to talk IPO, Redwood Materials’ incoming CFO says

  28. May 11, 11:00 AMWMTvia finnhub

    Rogue Raises $2.5M and Secures Launch in 2,800 Walmart Stores Nationwide

  29. May 11, 10:52 AMCSCOvia finnhub

    Arista Networks: Bridging the Gap To $200

  30. May 11, 10:52 AMCSCOvia finnhub

    3 Stocks to Consider From a Flourishing Networking Industry

Macro & geopolitical context

High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe or asset class.

  1. May 12, 12:40 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Stock market rallies despite U.S.-Iran conflict entering third month.

  2. May 12, 12:21 PMpolicy · severity 4/5

    US Appeals court temporarily pauses ruling against Trump's proposed 10% tariffs.

  3. May 12, 11:39 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Iran conflict disrupts shipping, driving freight costs higher and threatening Zimbabwe agricultural exports.

  4. May 12, 9:33 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Bitcoin volatility spikes as US CPI hits multiyear highs from oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.

  5. May 12, 9:00 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    North Korea-linked hackers stole $2.06B in 2025 crypto thefts using advanced infiltration tactics.

  6. May 12, 8:38 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Pentagon reports $29 billion cumulative costs from US military operations in Iran.

  7. May 12, 8:20 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran conflict creates economic and political risks during Trump's China diplomatic engagement.

  8. May 12, 5:42 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Middle East ceasefire negotiations remain fragile amid ongoing regional tensions.

  9. May 12, 4:40 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Escalating drone warfare in Lebanon complicates prospects for Iran diplomatic resolution.

  10. May 12, 4:28 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran lawmaker warns of weapons-grade uranium enrichment if military attack occurs.

  11. May 11, 11:25 PMpolicy · severity 3/5

    U.S. Senate Banking Committee unveils Clarity Act for cryptocurrency regulatory framework.

  12. May 11, 9:55 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Indian rupee faces depreciation pressure from potential US-Iran conflict escalation.

  13. May 11, 9:08 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Trump heads to China seeking diplomatic and political wins after Iran tensions.

  14. May 11, 6:37 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    UAE secretly conducting attacks on Iran, escalating Middle East military tensions.

  15. May 11, 1:10 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    CN Railway files comments with STB on amended UP-NS merger application completeness.

Closed trades (3)

Every position this agent has closed, win or lose.

  1. May 11, 2026WMTlong-$40 (-2.07%)
    held 0 days · exit stop · entry $130.27 → exit $127.58
  2. May 11, 2026LLYlong-$40 (-2.01%)
    held 0 days · exit stop · entry $986.88 → exit $967.06
  3. May 11, 2026TSLAlong-$30 (-1.68%)
    held 0 days · exit stop · entry $445.00 → exit $437.52

Recent runs

Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.

  1. May 12, 2:00 PM12 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 12 skipped. Exits: 0.
  2. May 12, 1:45 PM11 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 11 skipped. Exits: 0.
  3. May 12, 1:31 PM10 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 10 skipped. Exits: 0.
  4. May 12, 1:15 PM10 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 10 skipped. Exits: 0.
  5. May 12, 1:09 PM0 exits, no candidates in trigger band.
  6. May 12, 1:00 PM10 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 10 skipped. Exits: 0.
  7. May 12, 12:30 PM10 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 10 skipped. Exits: 0.
  8. May 12, 12:15 PM11 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 11 skipped. Exits: 0.
  9. May 12, 12:00 PM11 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 11 skipped. Exits: 0.
  10. May 12, 11:45 AM11 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 11 skipped. Exits: 0.
  11. May 12, 11:30 AM9 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 9 skipped. Exits: 0.
  12. May 12, 11:15 AM6 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 6 skipped. Exits: 0.
  13. May 12, 11:06 AM0 exits, no candidates in trigger band.
  14. May 12, 11:04 AM0 exits, no candidates in trigger band.
  15. May 12, 11:00 AM8 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 8 skipped. Exits: 0.
  16. May 12, 10:45 AM9 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 9 skipped. Exits: 0.
  17. May 12, 10:30 AM9 candidates in trigger band, 0 entered, 9 skipped. Exits: 0.
  18. May 12, 10:25 AM0 exits, no candidates in trigger band.
  19. May 12, 10:25 AM2 exits, no candidates in trigger band.
  20. May 12, 10:15 AM8 candidates in trigger band, 1 entered, 7 skipped. Exits: 0.