The Ledger

MPC

Marathon Petroleum CorpEnergyinsider_universe

Last close $393.37Sep 13, 2026

Day −0.65%

Currently held

Agent 17 — 52-Week High Momentumlong
13 sh @ $373.32 · stop —
+$260.52 unrealized

Everything we've seen

·Sep 14, 3:17 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 3:02 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 2:47 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 2:32 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 2:17 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 2:17 PMstreamnews
Can Par Pacific's Distillate-Focused Refining Model Drive Growth?
PARR's distillate-heavy refining system, tight product inventories and steady execution support earnings and free cash flow growth potential.
·Sep 14, 2:17 PMstreamnews
HF Sinclair Rises 113.9% in a Year: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell?
DINO benefits from tight refining capacity, low product inventories and resilient demand, while renewable diesel diversifies earnings.
·Sep 14, 2:02 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 1:47 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 1:31 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 1:17 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 1:01 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 12:46 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
❖Sep 14, 12:43 PMnewsvia finnhub
HF Sinclair Rises 113.9% in a Year: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell?
DINO benefits from tight refining capacity, low product inventories and resilient demand, while renewable diesel diversifies earnings.
·Sep 14, 12:31 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 12:16 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 12:01 PMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 11:46 AMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 11:31 AMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 11:16 AMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 11:02 AMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 10:49 AMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 10:34 AMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 10:19 AMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 10:19 AMstreamnews
Is Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Outperforming Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?
Here is how Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and PBF Energy (PBF) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.
❖Sep 14, 10:19 AMnewsvia finnhub
Can Par Pacific's Distillate-Focused Refining Model Drive Growth?
PARR's distillate-heavy refining system, tight product inventories and steady execution support earnings and free cash flow growth potential.
·Sep 14, 10:04 AMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
·Sep 14, 9:49 AMstreamnews
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
❖Sep 14, 9:40 AMnewsvia finnhub
Is Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Outperforming Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?
Here is how Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and PBF Energy (PBF) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.
❖Sep 14, 3:45 AMnewsvia finnhub
Marathon Petroleum: Further Upside With Refining Boom Likely Set To Last Through 2027
Marathon Petroleum has delivered exceptional returns, fueled by surging crack spreads and supply disruptions, with stock up ~50% since July. Read More on MPC.
❖Sep 12, 9:45 AMnewsvia finnhub
Oil Above $100 Is Creating a New Opportunity Beyond the Major Producers
Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum posted strong earnings beats as widening crack spreads from higher oil prices lifted refiner stocks past current analyst price targets.
❖Sep 11, 9:30 AMnewsvia finnhub
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Is Considered a Good Investment by Brokers: Is That True?
Based on the average brokerage recommendation (ABR), Marathon Petroleum (MPC) should be added to one's portfolio. Wall Street analysts' overly optimistic recommendations cast doubt on the effectiveness of this highly sought-after metric. So, is the stock worth buying?
❖Sep 10, 5:45 PMnewsvia finnhub
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Dips More Than Broader Market: What You Should Know
In the closing of the recent trading day, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stood at $392.42, denoting a -1.76% move from the preceding trading day.
❖Sep 10, 1:30 PMnewsvia finnhub
If You Invested $1000 In Marathon Petroleum Stock 15 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) has outperformed the market over the past 15 years by 10.04% on an annualized basis producing an average annual return of 23.02%. Currently, Marathon Petroleum has a market capitalization
❖Sep 10, 10:32 AMnewsvia finnhub
Delek's Margin Capture Improves Sharply: Is This More Than a Cycle?
DK is boosting refining profit capture as higher margins, throughput and reliability drive stronger economics.
❖Sep 10, 9:40 AMnewsvia finnhub
Should Value Investors Buy Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock?
Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks.
❖Sep 10, 7:34 AMnewsvia finnhub
Phillips 66: I Was Wrong On The Duration, Not On The Cycle
Phillips 66 (PSX) Q2 earnings beat: refining margins, EBITDA, debt reduction and buybacks. Click to read my analysis for more details on the pros and cons.
❖Sep 10, 7:27 AMnewsvia finnhub
Comstock's Solar-Recycling Pivot: Big Nameplate Capacity, Missing Feedstock
Comstock (LODE) rated Sell: valuation assumes unproven solar recycling unit economics. Dilution risk rising.
❖Sep 9, 9:34 PMnewsvia finnhub
Why Is ExxonMobil Priced Above Peers With Fatter Margins?
ExxonMobil (XOM) carries the highest earnings multiple in its peer group at 20.5 times, and it is not the best business in that group. Its operating margin ranks fourth of six, and its revenue growth ranks fourth of six as well. The premium is paying for something the standalone refiners don't get credit for; MPC and VLO trade at 13.4x and 15.6x, so it's likely the combination of upstream stability and downstream optionality that's priced in, not refining margins alone.
❖Sep 9, 12:21 PMnewsvia finnhub
How High-Return Refinery Investment Strengthens MPC's Long-Term Margins
Marathon Petroleum's high-return refinery projects aim to boost flexibility, product yields and cost efficiency, supporting stronger margins.
❖Sep 9, 12:00 PMnewsvia finnhub
Are You Looking for a Top Momentum Pick? Why Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is a Great Choice
Does Marathon Petroleum (MPC) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out.
❖Sep 9, 9:10 AMnewsvia finnhub
Defense, Solar, and Refining Stocks Split as the Iran Conflict Raises Energy Risk
As the U.S.-Iran conflict intensifies, SAIC, SolarEdge, and Marathon Petroleum show divergent results, with defense IT and refining gains contrasting solar's mixed outlook.
❖Sep 9, 7:58 AMnewsvia finnhub
Trump oil and gas holdings gained up to $4.4M during Iran war
A CNBC analysis found Trump's 9 largest energy positions rose between $1.5M and $4.4M in the first six months of fighting
❖Sep 9, 5:25 AMnewsvia finnhub
Oil Hits $100: Which Stocks And ETFs Win Or Lose?
Brent topped $100 after US strikes on Iranian tankers. Refiners have doubled in 2026. Airlines, REITs and gold miners are on the wrong side.
❖Sep 9, 2:30 AMnewsvia finnhub
Trump's oil investments have gained millions during Iran war as his accounts keep trading
Donald Trump retained major oil and gas investments as the Iran war has moved energy markets. CNBC analyzed his holdings, trades and estimated gains.
❖Sep 8, 2:57 PMnewsvia finnhub
The Best "Strong Buy" Momentum Stocks to Buy Now in September
How investors can find the best "Strong Buy" momentum stocks to buy now in September and beyond.
❖Sep 8, 10:13 AMnewsvia finnhub
Iran Just Raised the Stakes in the Gulf—These 5 Stocks Stand to Benefit
Iran's latest threat against US energy assets in the Gulf sent oil past $91 a barrel, and the money is already rotating into a handful of names before most investors notice the trade is live.
❖Sep 8, 9:22 AMnewsvia finnhub
Marathon Petroleum and Campbell's have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day
MPC benefits from record-high crack spreads, rising earnings estimates and strong refining margins, while Campbell's cuts its dividend.
❖Sep 8, 6:57 AMnewsvia finnhub
UBS Maintains Buy on Marathon Petroleum, Raises Price Target to $450
UBS analyst Manav Gupta maintains Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) with a Buy and raises the price target from $321 to $450.
❖Sep 8, 6:14 AMnewsvia finnhub
Bull of the Day: Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
This is the golden age of refining.
❖Sep 8, 6:12 AMnewsvia finnhub
U.S. Energy Stocks Rise Premarket as Brent Approaches $100
Shares of major U. S. energy companies moved higher in premarket trading on Tuesday as crude oil prices extended their gains amid concerns about potential disruption to Middle East energy supplies.
❖Sep 8, 5:59 AMnewsvia finnhub
Premarket movers: Energy stocks rise on Iran tensions, Eaton jumps on UBS upgrade
Investing.com -- U.S. stock futures fell early Tuesday, kicking off a shortened trading week as Wall Street monitored the U.S.-Iran conflict alongside rising trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% by 05:30 ET (09:30 GMT). S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.1%. U.S. markets were closed Monday for Labor Day.
❖Sep 8, 5:30 AMnewsvia finnhub
Hormuz Risk, $100 Oil and 4 ETFs Investors Must Watch
Iran-Hormuz tensions are pushing Brent toward $100. Here’s how BNO, USO, XLE and XOP could respond to a potential oil supply shock.
❖Sep 8, 5:22 AMnewsvia finnhub
Energy stocks rise premarket as oil prices climb on Middle East supply fears
Investing.com -- Shares of major U.S. energy companies gained in premarket trading Tuesday, tracking a rise in oil prices after Iran warned that Gulf oil and gas infrastructure could be targeted in retaliation for attacks on its own assets.
❖Sep 8, 4:40 AMnewsvia finnhub
Top 3 Energy Stocks That Could Sink Your Portfolio This Month
Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and CVR Energy show overbought RSI readings above 70, warning momentum-focused energy investors.
❖Sep 7, 4:34 PMnewsvia finnhub
Can Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Keep Rallying? Wells Fargo Says Yes
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) has substantially outperformed the broader market, posting gains of almost 132% since the beginning of 2026. While investors worry about a potential valuation correction, Wells Fargo analysts expect the stock to rally further. On September 1, Wells Fargo raised its price target on MPC from $359 to $300, while reiterating an […]
❖Sep 7, 1:04 PMnewsvia finnhub
PBF Energy Rises 168% in a Year: Is This the Right Time to Buy?
PBF surges 168.4% in a year, while tight product markets, constrained refining capacity and a discounted valuation support its outlook.
❖Sep 7, 10:00 AMnewsvia finnhub
Here is What to Know Beyond Why Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a Trending Stock
Recently, Zacks.com users have been paying close attention to Marathon Petroleum (MPC). This makes it worthwhile to examine what the stock has in store.
❖Sep 7, 6:00 AMnewsvia finnhub
Is Marathon Petroleum Stock Outperforming the S&P 500?
Marathon Petroleum has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index over the past year, and analysts remain moderately optimistic about the stock’s prospects.
❖Sep 7, 4:31 AMnewsvia finnhub
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC): A Value Play with Margin of Safety
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) offers solid value with low valuations, strong profitability, and healthy cash flow, making it a compelling Decent Value screen pick.
❖Sep 5, 1:08 AMnewsvia finnhub
Valero Energy: Diesel Scarcity Lifted Q2, But The Rally Leaves Little Room For Error
Valero's Gulf Coast refining system and export access provide a structural advantage, but earnings are highly sensitive. Read why VLO stock is a hold.
❖Sep 4, 10:56 AMnewsvia finnhub
3 Refining Stocks Up More Than 100% YTD With Further Upside Potential
VLO, PBF and MPC remain backed by tight fuel supplies, low inventories and healthy demand, with refining conditions expected to stay favorable into 2027.
❖Sep 4, 10:52 AMnewsvia finnhub
Is Marathon Petroleum Stock Still a Buy After More Than Doubling YTD?
MPC's 138.6% YTD surge is backed by strong refining execution, high-return projects and robust cash flow, though cyclical risks remain.
❖Sep 3, 9:35 PMnewsvia finnhub
Chart Of The Day: Don't Just Watch Oil - Watch These
The MoneyShow Chart of the Day shows the year-to-date percentage change in diesel futures and gasoline futures, in addition to oil. Read more here.
❖Sep 3, 7:00 PMnewsvia finnhub
Why Oil Majors Don’t Want to Build New U.S. Refineries
Global refining capacity is severely constrained, with more than 8 million bpd reportedly offline across Asia, the Middle East and Russia, driving record refining margins and tight fuel supplies.
❖Sep 3, 11:30 AMnewsvia finnhub
Why Is Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Up 30% Since Last Earnings Report?
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.
❖Sep 3, 9:13 AMnewsvia finnhub
Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Marathon Petroleum, Raises Price Target to $462
Piper Sandler analyst John Royall maintains Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $344 to $462.
❖Sep 3, 8:05 AMnewsvia finnhub
The Market May Be Telling Us We're Entering A Capital Formation Cycle
My clustering stock screener is giving us a much more interesting macro signal than simply energy stocks are strong. The portfolio is not simply long commodities. It's long capital intensity
❖Sep 2, 5:36 PMnewsvia finnhub
Top Stock Reports for AMD, Costco & AstraZeneca
AMD, Costco and AstraZeneca headline today's stock reports, with AI demand, membership growth and drug pipelines shaping their outlooks.
?Sep 2, 2:50 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 1.75% today, a meaningful but not outsized move. The lone headline is a retrospective 'what if you invested' piece — no fundamental catalyst driving the move, so this is likely technical or sector flow. The macro context shows 5Y forward inflation expectations running elevated (1.7σ above trend), which is a mild tailwind for energy/refining names like MPC as it implies sustained margin-supportive commodity pricing. However, with only 55 minutes remaining until the 3:45 PM forced close, there is limited runway for continuation even if momentum is intact. The absence of a clear catalyst means the move could be largely exhausted, and late-session profit-taking is a real risk. No reversal signals are evident from the data provided, and 1.75% is below the threshold that typically triggers aggressive fade behavior. Overall, the balance of evidence is marginally constructive — no strong reason to fade, but time constraint limits the conviction. Assigning a slight edge to continuation.
!Sep 2, 2:50 PMsignalseverity 0.02
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 1.75% today, a meaningful but not outsized move. The lone headline is a retrospective 'what if you invested' piece — no fundamental catalyst driving the move, so this is likely technical or sector flow. The macro context shows 5Y forward inflation expectations running elevated (1.7σ above trend), which is a mild tailwind for energy/refining names like MPC as it implies sustained margin-supportive commodity pricing. However, with only 55 minutes remaining until the 3:45 PM forced close, there is limited runway for continuation even if momentum is intact. The absence of a clear catalyst means the move could be largely exhausted, and late-session profit-taking is a real risk. No reversal signals are evident from the data provided, and 1.75% is below the threshold that typically triggers aggressive fade behavior. Overall, the balance of evidence is marginally constructive — no strong reason to fade, but time constraint limits the conviction. Assigning a slight edge to continuation.
❖Sep 2, 11:11 AMnewsvia finnhub
DK Stock Rallies 59.5% in 3 Months: Is There More Upside Ahead?
DK enters second-half 2026 with stronger refining profits, no planned turnarounds and EOP gains boosting cash-flow potential.
❖Sep 2, 9:30 AMnewsvia finnhub
If You Invested $1000 in Marathon Petroleum a Decade Ago, This is How Much It'd Be Worth Now
Why investing for the long run, especially if you buy certain popular stocks, could reap huge rewards.
❖Sep 2, 6:07 AMnewsvia finnhub
Why Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Is Up 7.9% After Refining Peers’ Earnings Strength and Analyst Optimism
In recent weeks, Marathon Petroleum has benefited from strong sector momentum, as peer Valero Energy reached a new 52-week high and reported a series of positive earnings surprises, while Marathon itself holds a favorable analyst rating reflecting robust recent earnings performance. This sector-wide earnings strength and analyst optimism suggest that refining and marketing fundamentals are currently supportive for key players like Marathon Petroleum, potentially reinforcing confidence in its...
❖Sep 1, 6:17 PMnewsvia finnhub
Oil Stocks Hit New Highs After U.S. Resumes Strikes in Strait of Hormuz
Renewed U.S. strikes in the Strait of Hormuz sent shares of major oil companies higher Tuesday, with several on track for record highs. “The United States is, as we speak, striking Iranian Targets near the Strait of Hormuz,” President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social Tuesday afternoon. “The strikes are large and powerful, and in retaliation for the Iranians’ failed attempt at adding sea mines to the Strait.”
❖Sep 1, 4:16 PMnewsvia finnhub
Goldman Sachs Sees Major Shift Coming for Oil Markets
A global fuel squeeze is creating another refining windfall.
❖Sep 1, 3:07 PMnewsvia finnhub
Canadian Oil Stock Edges Into Buy Zone After 200% Earnings Growth
Canadian Natural Resources rose 2.5% on Tuesday. The stock is inching toward a handle buy point of 51.48.
❖Sep 1, 1:39 PMnewsvia finnhub
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Bets Big On Oilseed Crush Capacity
On August 4, Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) executives told investors on an earnings call that the company would expand capacity at four US oilseed-crushing plants, a roughly $100 million push into a business that just posted its strongest quarter in years. The plants sit in Frankfort, Indiana; Deerfield, Missouri; Lincoln, Nebraska; and Spiritwood, North Dakota, the last […]
?Aug 27, 11:15 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is down 1.53% today, which is a moderate but not outsized move. There are no headlines to explain the move, and no clear catalyst to expect continuation or reversal. The macro context shows 5-year forward inflation expectations elevated at 1.6σ above trend — this is a mild headwind for rate-sensitive sectors broadly, but MPC as an oil refiner/integrated energy name is not a primary rate-sensitive play. Elevated inflation expectations could modestly support energy commodity prices, which would be slightly bullish for MPC fundamentals, creating a mild counter-pressure to today's decline. With 270 minutes remaining (essentially a full session still ahead), there is ample time for either continuation or mean reversion. The move at 1.53% is real flow but not a conviction-level panic move. In the absence of a clear news-driven narrative or strong sector tailwind amplifying the decline, and with mild macro factors that could actually support energy names, this is a borderline read. Assigning 0.5 — the evidence does not provide a strong reason to expect fade, but also lacks the sustained momentum signals or sector alignment needed to push higher. Taking the minimum threshold trade given the bounded risk structure.
!Aug 27, 11:15 AMsignalseverity -0.02
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is down 1.53% today, which is a moderate but not outsized move. There are no headlines to explain the move, and no clear catalyst to expect continuation or reversal. The macro context shows 5-year forward inflation expectations elevated at 1.6σ above trend — this is a mild headwind for rate-sensitive sectors broadly, but MPC as an oil refiner/integrated energy name is not a primary rate-sensitive play. Elevated inflation expectations could modestly support energy commodity prices, which would be slightly bullish for MPC fundamentals, creating a mild counter-pressure to today's decline. With 270 minutes remaining (essentially a full session still ahead), there is ample time for either continuation or mean reversion. The move at 1.53% is real flow but not a conviction-level panic move. In the absence of a clear news-driven narrative or strong sector tailwind amplifying the decline, and with mild macro factors that could actually support energy names, this is a borderline read. Assigning 0.5 — the evidence does not provide a strong reason to expect fade, but also lacks the sustained momentum signals or sector alignment needed to push higher. Taking the minimum threshold trade given the bounded risk structure.
?Aug 26, 3:00 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 2.36% today with only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close. The move is meaningful and represents real institutional flow, but the time constraint is the dominant factor here. With less than an hour to close, the window for further continuation is narrow, and the 3% profit target becomes harder to achieve from current levels. The macro context shows 5Y5Y inflation forward (T5YIFR) running 1.6σ above trend, which is a mildly unfavorable backdrop for rate-sensitive and energy/refining names like MPC — elevated inflation expectations can weigh on margin assumptions for refiners via input costs. There are no supporting headlines to sustain narrative momentum into the close. The absence of news is not disqualifying, but combined with late-session timing and a slightly adverse macro read, this setup does not clear the continuation threshold. The move may simply consolidate or drift slightly as positions flatten ahead of close. Probability nudged just below 0.5 primarily on time remaining and macro headwind.
!Aug 26, 3:00 PMsignalseverity 0.02
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 2.36% today with only 45 minutes remaining until the forced close. The move is meaningful and represents real institutional flow, but the time constraint is the dominant factor here. With less than an hour to close, the window for further continuation is narrow, and the 3% profit target becomes harder to achieve from current levels. The macro context shows 5Y5Y inflation forward (T5YIFR) running 1.6σ above trend, which is a mildly unfavorable backdrop for rate-sensitive and energy/refining names like MPC — elevated inflation expectations can weigh on margin assumptions for refiners via input costs. There are no supporting headlines to sustain narrative momentum into the close. The absence of news is not disqualifying, but combined with late-session timing and a slightly adverse macro read, this setup does not clear the continuation threshold. The move may simply consolidate or drift slightly as positions flatten ahead of close. Probability nudged just below 0.5 primarily on time remaining and macro headwind.
?Aug 26, 1:35 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 2.26% today with no headline catalyst visible, suggesting the move is driven by institutional flow or sector rotation rather than a news spike that could quickly reverse on fading attention. The macro context shows 5-year forward inflation expectations printing 1.6σ above trend — elevated inflation expectations can be modestly supportive of energy/refining names like MPC as a real-asset/commodity-linked sector. No reversal signal or fade pattern is described. However, several factors temper conviction: (1) 130 minutes remaining is meaningful but not abundant — the bulk of today's move has already occurred, leaving less room before the 3:45 PM forced flatten; (2) absence of a clear news catalyst means we cannot assess whether a specific driver has further to run; (3) the macro signal is rate-sensitive broadly, which cuts both ways for MPC. On balance, with no structural reason to expect a fade and a bounded risk setup, a modest continuation bias is warranted, but this is not a high-conviction setup.
!Aug 26, 1:35 PMsignalseverity 0.02
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 2.26% today with no headline catalyst visible, suggesting the move is driven by institutional flow or sector rotation rather than a news spike that could quickly reverse on fading attention. The macro context shows 5-year forward inflation expectations printing 1.6σ above trend — elevated inflation expectations can be modestly supportive of energy/refining names like MPC as a real-asset/commodity-linked sector. No reversal signal or fade pattern is described. However, several factors temper conviction: (1) 130 minutes remaining is meaningful but not abundant — the bulk of today's move has already occurred, leaving less room before the 3:45 PM forced flatten; (2) absence of a clear news catalyst means we cannot assess whether a specific driver has further to run; (3) the macro signal is rate-sensitive broadly, which cuts both ways for MPC. On balance, with no structural reason to expect a fade and a bounded risk setup, a modest continuation bias is warranted, but this is not a high-conviction setup.
?Aug 26, 12:10 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 2.54% today with no attributable headline, suggesting institutional flow or sector rotation driving the move. The macro context shows 5Y5Y forward inflation expectations elevated at 1.6σ above trend — this is mildly supportive for energy/refining names like MPC, as inflation expectations can correlate with crude/crack spread optimism. With 215 minutes remaining (~3.5 hours), there is ample time for continuation if momentum holds. No reversal signals are apparent from the data provided. The absence of news does not disqualify the move — 2.54% represents meaningful conviction from size players. However, confidence is tempered by: (1) no catalyst to point to for sustained buying pressure, (2) the macro signal (rate-sensitive sectors broadly reactive to elevated inflation expectations) is ambiguous for MPC specifically — higher rates could pressure valuation. Overall, ordinary momentum with no strong reason to fade, warranting a modest continuation probability above the 0.5 threshold.
!Aug 26, 12:10 PMsignalseverity 0.03
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 2.54% today with no attributable headline, suggesting institutional flow or sector rotation driving the move. The macro context shows 5Y5Y forward inflation expectations elevated at 1.6σ above trend — this is mildly supportive for energy/refining names like MPC, as inflation expectations can correlate with crude/crack spread optimism. With 215 minutes remaining (~3.5 hours), there is ample time for continuation if momentum holds. No reversal signals are apparent from the data provided. The absence of news does not disqualify the move — 2.54% represents meaningful conviction from size players. However, confidence is tempered by: (1) no catalyst to point to for sustained buying pressure, (2) the macro signal (rate-sensitive sectors broadly reactive to elevated inflation expectations) is ambiguous for MPC specifically — higher rates could pressure valuation. Overall, ordinary momentum with no strong reason to fade, warranting a modest continuation probability above the 0.5 threshold.
?Aug 10, 6:04 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 20 — SIR Price/Volume — buy
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [cluster_break_up] From 2026-08-05 through 2026-08-07, MPC formed a tight three-session price cluster around $297–$299 (closes: $297.75, $299.25, $298.20) on volumes of 2.8M, 2.0M, and 2.3M — a short-term congestion base after a sharp pullback from the prior $315–$320 range. Today, 2026-08-10, price broke decisively above that cluster AND above the broader 20-day range resistance near $316–$320 (last seen 2026-07-21 at $319.76), printing a close of $320.32 on a +7.42% move. While today's volume of 1.9M is modestly below the 20-day ADV of 2.1M (z-score –0.68), the SIR path is unambiguous: the scatter dot leaps up-and-left out of the low-price cluster, a classic cluster_break_up geometry — the price displacement (+$22 from the cluster floor) is the dominant signal, not the volume shortfall. The broader 20-day path also shows persistent up-day volume leadership through mid-July (e.g., +2.23% on 1.9M, +2.21% on 2.1M, +1.41% on 2.1M) before the corrective episode, lending structural accumulation context to the break. Risks: A single-session break without above-average volume is the primary concern — if MPC fails to follow through in the next 1–2 sessions with continued up-day volume dominance (ideally volume reclaiming ≥2.1M on up days), the breakout risks being a one-day gap-and-fade, collapsing back into the $297–$305 cluster and invalidating the bullish read. Additionally, a reversal in the macro tailwind — notably the 5-year inflation breakeven (T5YIE at 2.22, currently 1.6σ below trend) snapping back sharply higher — could pressure Energy multiples and undermine the sector-level bid that likely contributed to today's move.
?Aug 7, 10:01 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is down 2.07% today with no attributable headline catalyst, suggesting this is likely flow-driven selling in the energy sector. The macro context is modestly relevant: 5Y breakeven inflation (T5YIE) is 1.5σ below its 24-month trend, which is a soft signal for energy names — lower inflation expectations can weigh on commodity-linked equities like refiners. However, this macro signal is not strongly directional on an intraday basis. With 345 minutes remaining (essentially a full trading afternoon), there is ample time for the move to continue. The absence of news does not disqualify the setup — large moves without headlines often reflect institutional repositioning that persists intraday. No clear reversal signal is evident (no fade off morning highs described, no volume anomaly noted). The setup is ordinary momentum with modest macro headwind support — not a high-conviction continuation, but meets the threshold for a lean toward continuation given bounded downside risk and time available.
!Aug 7, 10:01 AMsignalseverity -0.02
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is down 2.07% today with no attributable headline catalyst, suggesting this is likely flow-driven selling in the energy sector. The macro context is modestly relevant: 5Y breakeven inflation (T5YIE) is 1.5σ below its 24-month trend, which is a soft signal for energy names — lower inflation expectations can weigh on commodity-linked equities like refiners. However, this macro signal is not strongly directional on an intraday basis. With 345 minutes remaining (essentially a full trading afternoon), there is ample time for the move to continue. The absence of news does not disqualify the setup — large moves without headlines often reflect institutional repositioning that persists intraday. No clear reversal signal is evident (no fade off morning highs described, no volume anomaly noted). The setup is ordinary momentum with modest macro headwind support — not a high-conviction continuation, but meets the threshold for a lean toward continuation given bounded downside risk and time available.
?Aug 4, 12:25 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 1.58% today, a modest but real move suggesting some buying conviction. No headline catalyst is identifiable, so this is likely flow-driven rather than news-driven. The macro context shows 5Y breakeven inflation (T5YIE) running 1.5σ below trend, which is a mild headwind for energy names like MPC — lower inflation expectations can weigh on refining margins and energy sector sentiment. However, the signal is not acute enough to trigger a strong fade thesis on its own. With 200 minutes remaining there is ample time for continuation. The move magnitude (1.58%) is below the 2-5% 'high conviction' threshold, so this is ordinary momentum without a strong directional catalyst. No reversal pattern or fade signal is evident. On balance, slight lean toward continuation given time remaining and absence of a specific fade trigger, but low conviction.
!Aug 4, 12:25 PMsignalseverity 0.02
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 1.58% today, a modest but real move suggesting some buying conviction. No headline catalyst is identifiable, so this is likely flow-driven rather than news-driven. The macro context shows 5Y breakeven inflation (T5YIE) running 1.5σ below trend, which is a mild headwind for energy names like MPC — lower inflation expectations can weigh on refining margins and energy sector sentiment. However, the signal is not acute enough to trigger a strong fade thesis on its own. With 200 minutes remaining there is ample time for continuation. The move magnitude (1.58%) is below the 2-5% 'high conviction' threshold, so this is ordinary momentum without a strong directional catalyst. No reversal pattern or fade signal is evident. On balance, slight lean toward continuation given time remaining and absence of a specific fade trigger, but low conviction.
?Aug 3, 2:21 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is down 1.85% today, approaching but not quite at the 2% threshold that would signal strong directional conviction. No headlines are available to explain the move, which means we cannot assess whether the catalyst is spent or ongoing. The macro context shows T10Y3M at 1.8σ above its 24-month trend, suggesting a steepening yield curve environment. MPC as an energy/refining name is not among the most yield-curve-sensitive sectors (Banks and recession-sensitive sectors are flagged), so the macro read is roughly neutral for MPC specifically. With 85 minutes remaining, there is adequate time for continuation if momentum is genuine. However, the move is sub-2%, no news is driving it, and the macro backdrop offers no particular tailwind for further selling in a refiner. The setup does not have clear continuation pressure — this is an ordinary momentum read with no strong reason to reverse but also no strong reason to accelerate. Assigning baseline 0.5 probability for continuation downward, consistent with a borderline trade where the bounded risk profile justifies entry but conviction is limited.
!Aug 3, 2:21 PMsignalseverity -0.02
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is down 1.85% today, approaching but not quite at the 2% threshold that would signal strong directional conviction. No headlines are available to explain the move, which means we cannot assess whether the catalyst is spent or ongoing. The macro context shows T10Y3M at 1.8σ above its 24-month trend, suggesting a steepening yield curve environment. MPC as an energy/refining name is not among the most yield-curve-sensitive sectors (Banks and recession-sensitive sectors are flagged), so the macro read is roughly neutral for MPC specifically. With 85 minutes remaining, there is adequate time for continuation if momentum is genuine. However, the move is sub-2%, no news is driving it, and the macro backdrop offers no particular tailwind for further selling in a refiner. The setup does not have clear continuation pressure — this is an ordinary momentum read with no strong reason to reverse but also no strong reason to accelerate. Assigning baseline 0.5 probability for continuation downward, consistent with a borderline trade where the bounded risk profile justifies entry but conviction is limited.
?Jul 27, 6:04 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 20 — SIR Price/Volume — skip
[distribution] The PV path from 2026-07-20 through 2026-07-24 shows a classic distributive tilt: the price peaked at $319.76 on 7/21 on 2.1M volume, then sold off on three consecutive down-days (7/22: $315.82 on an expanding 2.6M; 7/23: $312.27 on 2.3M; 7/24: $309.24 on 2.0M), with down-day volume consistently exceeding the up-day volume seen during the prior consolidation range ($283–$303, 7/09–7/14, averaging ~2.1M). Today's single bar (7/27: $312.41, 3.4M, z-score 4.94) reclaims a portion of the recent pullback on a volume spike, but under SIR methodology a single-bar reversal off a distributive descent — without multiple confirming up-days — does not constitute a bullish path signal; the spike more plausibly reflects a short-cover or event-driven reaction rather than sustained accumulation. The overall path from the $259–$268 cluster in late June/early July has been a strong trend run followed by a rolling-over, with today's dot landing back inside the prior 7/17–7/22 congestion band ($312–$316), not breaking decisively above it. Risks: A sustained close back above $319–$320 on continued above-average volume over 2–3 sessions would invalidate the distributive read and suggest the 7/22–7/24 pullback was merely a shakeout within a larger accumulation trend. Additionally, the macro tailwind — 5Y inflation breakevens 1.6σ below trend as of 7/24 — could provide a fundamental bid for Energy names that overwhelms the near-term technical distribution signal.
?Jul 17, 2:16 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 1.87% today, a meaningful move suggesting real institutional flow. However, the macro context shows 10Y inflation expectations (T10YIE) running 1.6σ below trend, which is modestly supportive for refining/energy names via lower cost-of-capital expectations but not a strong catalyst. No headlines to anchor a thesis either way. With only 90 minutes remaining, the setup is ordinary momentum — no reversal signal evident, no fade pattern described, but also no clear continuation catalyst. The move is below the 2-5% threshold where conviction would be higher. Time remaining is adequate but not generous. Taking a mild continuation bias given bounded risk profile and system design favoring action on borderline reads.
!Jul 17, 2:16 PMsignalseverity 0.02
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 1.87% today, a meaningful move suggesting real institutional flow. However, the macro context shows 10Y inflation expectations (T10YIE) running 1.6σ below trend, which is modestly supportive for refining/energy names via lower cost-of-capital expectations but not a strong catalyst. No headlines to anchor a thesis either way. With only 90 minutes remaining, the setup is ordinary momentum — no reversal signal evident, no fade pattern described, but also no clear continuation catalyst. The move is below the 2-5% threshold where conviction would be higher. Time remaining is adequate but not generous. Taking a mild continuation bias given bounded risk profile and system design favoring action on borderline reads.
?Jul 16, 10:20 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 2.76% today with no attributable headline, suggesting institutional flow or sector rotation driving the move. With 325 minutes remaining (well over 5 hours), there is ample time for continuation. The macro context notes 5Y inflation expectations (T5YIE) are 1.6σ below trend, which is modestly supportive for energy names as suppressed inflation expectations can reduce rate-headwind concerns and energy equities often benefit from flight-to-cyclicals in such environments. However, the below-trend inflation read is a mixed signal for refiners like MPC specifically — lower inflation expectations can pressure crack spread assumptions and commodities broadly. No news catalyst means this is purely a flow/momentum read. The move is meaningful at 2.76% but not extreme. With no reversal pattern observed and time remaining ample, the base case is mild continuation but with limited conviction. Assigning 0.54 — above threshold to take the trade given bounded risk parameters, but not strong enough to warrant a high-conviction rating.
!Jul 16, 10:20 AMsignalseverity 0.03
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 2.76% today with no attributable headline, suggesting institutional flow or sector rotation driving the move. With 325 minutes remaining (well over 5 hours), there is ample time for continuation. The macro context notes 5Y inflation expectations (T5YIE) are 1.6σ below trend, which is modestly supportive for energy names as suppressed inflation expectations can reduce rate-headwind concerns and energy equities often benefit from flight-to-cyclicals in such environments. However, the below-trend inflation read is a mixed signal for refiners like MPC specifically — lower inflation expectations can pressure crack spread assumptions and commodities broadly. No news catalyst means this is purely a flow/momentum read. The move is meaningful at 2.76% but not extreme. With no reversal pattern observed and time remaining ample, the base case is mild continuation but with limited conviction. Assigning 0.54 — above threshold to take the trade given bounded risk parameters, but not strong enough to warrant a high-conviction rating.
?Jul 13, 1:50 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 4.32% intraday, a meaningful move that signals real institutional flow. No headlines are available to identify a catalyst, but absence of news is not disqualifying — large moves often precede or accompany flow-driven activity without immediate media coverage. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 2.1σ below trend, slightly flattening curve) is mildly relevant to energy/refining names like MPC only indirectly; it skews toward defensives and pressures banks, but MPC is not in a heavily impacted sector here. With 115 minutes remaining, there is meaningful time for continuation, though the move is already extended at 4.32%, which raises the risk of profit-taking into the close. No reversal pattern or fade signal is evident from the data provided. Balancing the strong intraday momentum signal against the extended move size and lack of a confirmed catalyst, probability sits modestly above the continuation threshold.
!Jul 13, 1:50 PMsignalseverity 0.04
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 4.32% intraday, a meaningful move that signals real institutional flow. No headlines are available to identify a catalyst, but absence of news is not disqualifying — large moves often precede or accompany flow-driven activity without immediate media coverage. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 2.1σ below trend, slightly flattening curve) is mildly relevant to energy/refining names like MPC only indirectly; it skews toward defensives and pressures banks, but MPC is not in a heavily impacted sector here. With 115 minutes remaining, there is meaningful time for continuation, though the move is already extended at 4.32%, which raises the risk of profit-taking into the close. No reversal pattern or fade signal is evident from the data provided. Balancing the strong intraday momentum signal against the extended move size and lack of a confirmed catalyst, probability sits modestly above the continuation threshold.
?Jul 13, 9:55 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 4.0% intraday, a meaningful move suggesting real institutional flow. No headline catalyst is present, but absence of news doesn't disqualify momentum — large moves often precede news or reflect sector rotation. With 350 minutes remaining (roughly 5h50m), there is ample time for continuation. The macro backdrop (T10Y2Y at 0.35, 2.1σ below trend) reflects a modest flattening bias, which is modestly negative for cyclicals like refiners but not a strong headwind. MPC as an energy/refining name is not in the most directly macro-sensitive bucket relative to banks or defensives. The 4% move is at the upper bound of normal intraday noise, which raises some mean-reversion risk if volume thins mid-session. However, with no reversal signal, no fade described, and substantial time remaining, the base case is modest continuation or at least hold of gains. Probability set modestly above 0.5 — ordinary momentum play with no strong fade catalyst, but also no clear accelerant beyond the move itself.
!Jul 13, 9:55 AMsignalseverity 0.04
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 4.0% intraday, a meaningful move suggesting real institutional flow. No headline catalyst is present, but absence of news doesn't disqualify momentum — large moves often precede news or reflect sector rotation. With 350 minutes remaining (roughly 5h50m), there is ample time for continuation. The macro backdrop (T10Y2Y at 0.35, 2.1σ below trend) reflects a modest flattening bias, which is modestly negative for cyclicals like refiners but not a strong headwind. MPC as an energy/refining name is not in the most directly macro-sensitive bucket relative to banks or defensives. The 4% move is at the upper bound of normal intraday noise, which raises some mean-reversion risk if volume thins mid-session. However, with no reversal signal, no fade described, and substantial time remaining, the base case is modest continuation or at least hold of gains. Probability set modestly above 0.5 — ordinary momentum play with no strong fade catalyst, but also no clear accelerant beyond the move itself.
?Jul 8, 1:40 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 3.19% intraday, a meaningful move indicating real institutional flow. No headlines explain the move, but absence of news is not a fade signal — this could be sector rotation into energy/refining names or broader risk-on tape. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 0.36, 2σ below 24-month trend) suggests a flattening curve environment that is modestly supportive of cyclicals like refiners relative to banks and defensives. With 125 minutes remaining there is ample time for continuation, and the move magnitude (>3%) implies conviction from whoever initiated. No reversal pattern or fade signal is present in the data. The main headwinds are: no clear catalyst to sustain narrative-driven buying into the close, and refining margins can be volatile intraday. Overall this is a moderate momentum setup — no strong reason to expect fade, no strong reason to expect acceleration. Probability set just above the threshold reflecting ordinary momentum continuation.
!Jul 8, 1:40 PMsignalseverity 0.03
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 3.19% intraday, a meaningful move indicating real institutional flow. No headlines explain the move, but absence of news is not a fade signal — this could be sector rotation into energy/refining names or broader risk-on tape. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 0.36, 2σ below 24-month trend) suggests a flattening curve environment that is modestly supportive of cyclicals like refiners relative to banks and defensives. With 125 minutes remaining there is ample time for continuation, and the move magnitude (>3%) implies conviction from whoever initiated. No reversal pattern or fade signal is present in the data. The main headwinds are: no clear catalyst to sustain narrative-driven buying into the close, and refining margins can be volatile intraday. Overall this is a moderate momentum setup — no strong reason to expect fade, no strong reason to expect acceleration. Probability set just above the threshold reflecting ordinary momentum continuation.
?Jul 8, 11:31 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 5.02% today, a meaningful move that reflects real institutional flow and conviction. With 255 minutes remaining (~4.25 hours), there is ample time for continuation into the close. No headlines are available to explain the catalyst, but absence of news does not disqualify momentum — large refining/energy moves often precede news or are driven by commodity flows, desk positioning, or sector rotation. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 2.0σ below trend, slightly flatter curve) is modestly unfavorable for energy/refining names to the extent that tighter spreads could weigh on margins, but this is an indirect and weak headwind for MPC specifically. The primary risk is that a 5%+ move without a clear catalyst may be partially mean-reverting as the session matures — profit-taking pressure is real on outsized intraday moves. However, with no reversal pattern described, no volume concerns flagged, and significant time remaining, the base case is that momentum has not fully exhausted. Assigning a modest continuation probability above 0.5 to align with the system's asymmetric risk/reward (tight -1.5% stop vs. +3% target), while not reaching high-conviction territory due to the lack of a clear catalyst and the magnitude of the move already captured.
!Jul 8, 11:31 AMsignalseverity 0.05
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
MPC is up 5.02% today, a meaningful move that reflects real institutional flow and conviction. With 255 minutes remaining (~4.25 hours), there is ample time for continuation into the close. No headlines are available to explain the catalyst, but absence of news does not disqualify momentum — large refining/energy moves often precede news or are driven by commodity flows, desk positioning, or sector rotation. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 2.0σ below trend, slightly flatter curve) is modestly unfavorable for energy/refining names to the extent that tighter spreads could weigh on margins, but this is an indirect and weak headwind for MPC specifically. The primary risk is that a 5%+ move without a clear catalyst may be partially mean-reverting as the session matures — profit-taking pressure is real on outsized intraday moves. However, with no reversal pattern described, no volume concerns flagged, and significant time remaining, the base case is that momentum has not fully exhausted. Assigning a modest continuation probability above 0.5 to align with the system's asymmetric risk/reward (tight -1.5% stop vs. +3% target), while not reaching high-conviction territory due to the lack of a clear catalyst and the magnitude of the move already captured.
!Jul 2, 5:04 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 4:46 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 4:33 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 4:16 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 4:05 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 3:46 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 3:33 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 3:17 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 2:46 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 2:33 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 1:47 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 1:35 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 1:18 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 12:46 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 12:35 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jul 2, 12:19 PMsignal
options_momentum — insufficient_capital
?Jun 22, 7:05 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 8 — Dip Buyer (Peer-Aware) — decide: skip
MPC is a well-capitalized refiner (Marathon Petroleum) with no confirmed fundamental impairment visible in the evidence window — no earnings miss, no guidance cut, no insider selling. However, the drop appears to be largely sector-driven: Energy (XLE) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength, with -10.42pts vs SPY over 30 days and a deeply negative flow proxy today (-$26M). Oil (USO -1.03%) is falling alongside broad risk-off (SPY -1.25%, VXX +4.39%), creating a hostile near-term tape for energy names. The complete absence of any confirmation signals — no insider buying, no unusual call flow, no analyst upgrades, no filings — leaves the thesis resting entirely on mean-reversion with no identifiable catalyst.
?Jun 22, 7:05 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 5 — Dip Buyer (Evolving) — decide: skip
MPC (Marathon Petroleum) is down 10.2% from its 30-day high, consistent with broad sector weakness — Energy (XLE) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength and is down ~10.4pts vs SPY over 30 days, suggesting this is a sector-driven dip rather than an idiosyncratic single-stock problem. No fundamental deterioration signals are present (no recent 10-Q/8-K filings with negative disclosures, no earnings imminent), and VIX at the 34th percentile indicates a relatively calm volatility regime. However, the evidence stack is thin: no insider buying, no unusual options flow, no positive catalysts, and the drop is only 10.2% (not the >=15% mean-reversion threshold), leaving the net signal score marginal at best (~+1 for sector-wide dip, +1 for no imminent earnings, partially offset by -1 for deeply lagging sector/negative flow proxy and broad market risk-off tone today).
?Jun 18, 6:21 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 4 — Dip Buyer (Frozen) — decide: skip
With no negative news headlines or SEC filings in the window, the ~10.2% drop from the 30-day high appears to be macro/sector-driven rather than fundamental deterioration. MPC (Marathon Petroleum) is a large, well-capitalized downstream refiner with historically strong free cash flow and an active capital return program, suggesting the underlying business remains sound. However, the flat-to-slightly-positive yield curve (T10Y2Y at 0.38, 2.3σ below trend) signals a macro environment that can pressure energy/refining margins via demand concerns and credit tightening, limiting near-term upside catalyst visibility.
?Jun 18, 6:05 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 8 — Dip Buyer (Peer-Aware) — decide: skip
MPC is a well-capitalized refiner (Marathon Petroleum) with no confirmed fundamental impairment visible in the evidence window — no earnings miss, no guidance cut, no insider selling. However, the drop appears to be largely sector-driven: Energy (XLE) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength, with -10.42pts vs SPY over 30 days and a deeply negative flow proxy today (-$26M). Oil (USO -1.03%) is falling alongside broad risk-off (SPY -1.25%, VXX +4.39%), creating a hostile near-term tape for energy names. The complete absence of any confirmation signals — no insider buying, no unusual call flow, no analyst upgrades, no filings — leaves the thesis resting entirely on mean-reversion with no identifiable catalyst.
?Jun 18, 6:04 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 5 — Dip Buyer (Evolving) — decide: skip
MPC (Marathon Petroleum) is down 10.2% from its 30-day high, consistent with broad sector weakness — Energy (XLE) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength and is down ~10.4pts vs SPY over 30 days, suggesting this is a sector-driven dip rather than an idiosyncratic single-stock problem. No fundamental deterioration signals are present (no recent 10-Q/8-K filings with negative disclosures, no earnings imminent), and VIX at the 34th percentile indicates a relatively calm volatility regime. However, the evidence stack is thin: no insider buying, no unusual options flow, no positive catalysts, and the drop is only 10.2% (not the >=15% mean-reversion threshold), leaving the net signal score marginal at best (~+1 for sector-wide dip, +1 for no imminent earnings, partially offset by -1 for deeply lagging sector/negative flow proxy and broad market risk-off tone today).
?Jun 18, 7:03 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 5 — Dip Buyer (Evolving) — decide: skip
MPC (Marathon Petroleum) is down 10.2% from its 30-day high, consistent with broad sector weakness — Energy (XLE) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength and is down ~10.4pts vs SPY over 30 days, suggesting this is a sector-driven dip rather than an idiosyncratic single-stock problem. No fundamental deterioration signals are present (no recent 10-Q/8-K filings with negative disclosures, no earnings imminent), and VIX at the 34th percentile indicates a relatively calm volatility regime. However, the evidence stack is thin: no insider buying, no unusual options flow, no positive catalysts, and the drop is only 10.2% (not the >=15% mean-reversion threshold), leaving the net signal score marginal at best (~+1 for sector-wide dip, +1 for no imminent earnings, partially offset by -1 for deeply lagging sector/negative flow proxy and broad market risk-off tone today).
?Jun 18, 7:03 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 8 — Dip Buyer (Peer-Aware) — decide: skip
MPC is a well-capitalized refiner (Marathon Petroleum) with no confirmed fundamental impairment visible in the evidence window — no earnings miss, no guidance cut, no insider selling. However, the drop appears to be largely sector-driven: Energy (XLE) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength, with -10.42pts vs SPY over 30 days and a deeply negative flow proxy today (-$26M). Oil (USO -1.03%) is falling alongside broad risk-off (SPY -1.25%, VXX +4.39%), creating a hostile near-term tape for energy names. The complete absence of any confirmation signals — no insider buying, no unusual call flow, no analyst upgrades, no filings — leaves the thesis resting entirely on mean-reversion with no identifiable catalyst.
?Jun 17, 6:06 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 5 — Dip Buyer (Evolving) — decide: skip
MPC (Marathon Petroleum) is down 10.2% from its 30-day high, consistent with broad sector weakness — Energy (XLE) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength and is down ~10.4pts vs SPY over 30 days, suggesting this is a sector-driven dip rather than an idiosyncratic single-stock problem. No fundamental deterioration signals are present (no recent 10-Q/8-K filings with negative disclosures, no earnings imminent), and VIX at the 34th percentile indicates a relatively calm volatility regime. However, the evidence stack is thin: no insider buying, no unusual options flow, no positive catalysts, and the drop is only 10.2% (not the >=15% mean-reversion threshold), leaving the net signal score marginal at best (~+1 for sector-wide dip, +1 for no imminent earnings, partially offset by -1 for deeply lagging sector/negative flow proxy and broad market risk-off tone today).
?Jun 17, 6:05 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 8 — Dip Buyer (Peer-Aware) — decide: skip
MPC is a well-capitalized refiner (Marathon Petroleum) with no confirmed fundamental impairment visible in the evidence window — no earnings miss, no guidance cut, no insider selling. However, the drop appears to be largely sector-driven: Energy (XLE) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength, with -10.42pts vs SPY over 30 days and a deeply negative flow proxy today (-$26M). Oil (USO -1.03%) is falling alongside broad risk-off (SPY -1.25%, VXX +4.39%), creating a hostile near-term tape for energy names. The complete absence of any confirmation signals — no insider buying, no unusual call flow, no analyst upgrades, no filings — leaves the thesis resting entirely on mean-reversion with no identifiable catalyst.
?Jun 17, 6:05 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 4 — Dip Buyer (Frozen) — decide: skip
With no negative news headlines or SEC filings in the window, the ~10.2% drop from the 30-day high appears to be macro/sector-driven rather than fundamental deterioration. MPC (Marathon Petroleum) is a large, well-capitalized downstream refiner with historically strong free cash flow and an active capital return program, suggesting the underlying business remains sound. However, the flat-to-slightly-positive yield curve (T10Y2Y at 0.38, 2.3σ below trend) signals a macro environment that can pressure energy/refining margins via demand concerns and credit tightening, limiting near-term upside catalyst visibility.
?Jun 15, 6:06 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 20 — SIR Price/Volume — skip
[distribution] The 20-day PV path tells a distinctly bearish story. The rally from $247–$251 (May 27–28) to the $263–$267 range (Jun 1–3) was built on modest, declining volume — up days Jun 1–3 printed 2.4M, 2.4M, and 2.3M, barely above the 20-day ADV of 2.3M, while the subsequent down days Jun 9 (3.2M, -3.01%) and today Jun 15 (3.4M, -4.83%) both saw sharply elevated volume. This asymmetry — quiet volume on advances, heavy volume on declines — is the hallmark of distribution in the SIR 2-D framework: the path drifts up-right during the rally but snaps down-right on the sell-off, exposing sellers absorbing demand into strength. Today's close at $250.86, a z-score of 3.01 on a -4.83% down day, is the largest-volume session in the window and lands at the lowest close since late May, driving the path sharply down-and-right — the definitive distributive vector. Risks: A recapture of $263+ on volume materially below 2.0M (low-volume pullback scenario) would suggest today's selloff was a shakeout rather than distribution, invalidating the bearish read. Additionally, a broad energy sector reversal on a macro catalyst (e.g., crude oil supply shock) could lift MPC mechanically regardless of the internal PV structure.
?Jun 15, 3:40 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
With only 5 minutes remaining until the forced 3:45 PM ET close, there is virtually no time for meaningful continuation of the -4.41% move. Even if the bearish momentum is genuine and structurally sound, the position would be flattened almost immediately, making the risk/reward unattractive. The move itself is significant and suggests real institutional selling, but at this point in the session, the dominant dynamic is position squaring and EOD flow, not directional momentum. No supporting news or catalyst is available to assess the underlying driver. The macro context (T10Y2Y below trend) is mildly negative for cyclicals like MPC, but that alone doesn't justify a last-minute entry. The time constraint is the overriding factor here — 5 minutes is insufficient runway to capture a meaningful directional move toward a +3% profit target, and the probability of continuation within this window drops sharply.
?Jun 12, 10:11 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 2.16% today with no attributable headline, suggesting this is flow/position-driven rather than news-driven. The move is meaningful and represents real conviction. However, several factors temper enthusiasm: (1) With 334 minutes remaining until the 3:45 PM cutoff, there is ample time but also ample time for a fade — a long session ahead is neutral to slightly negative for continuation of an already-established gain. (2) The macro context (T10Y2Y at 2.1σ below trend, a flatter/inverted curve environment) is not particularly constructive for cyclical energy refiners like MPC, which tend to be correlated with economic growth expectations and margins sensitive to macro conditions. (3) No news catalyst means the move lacks a narrative anchor that would attract incremental buyers. (4) No reversal pattern is evident, and absence of news is not a disqualifier per framework. On balance, momentum is modestly positive with no strong reason to expect a fade, but the macro headwinds from a flattening yield curve and the lack of a catalyst keep conviction limited. Assigning a modest continuation probability just above the action threshold.
?Jun 1, 9:36 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 2.11% today with no headline catalyst identified, suggesting this is flow/technical driven rather than news-driven. The move represents real conviction from someone with size. With 370 minutes remaining (well before the 3:45 PM cutoff), there is ample time for continuation. The macro context (T10Y3M at 1.6σ above trend) is modestly supportive for energy/refining names like MPC, as a steepening yield curve can signal growth expectations, though MPC is not the primary reactor to this signal. No reversal or fade pattern is indicated from the data provided. The absence of news is not a disqualifier per framework guidance. The setup is ordinary momentum — no strong tailwinds but also no headwinds or fade signals — warranting a modest but above-threshold continuation probability.
?May 22, 3:10 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 2.72% intraday, which is meaningful momentum. However, several factors weigh against continuation into the close: (1) Only 35 minutes remain until the forced 3:45 PM ET cutoff — very little runway for further upside, and late-session profit-taking often fades morning/midday moves. (2) No supporting news catalyst is identifiable, meaning the move may lack a durable narrative to attract fresh buyers in the final stretch. (3) The macro backdrop — T10Y3M at 2.2σ above trend — signals steepening/risk-on in rates, but MPC as a refiner/downstream energy company is not a primary beneficiary of this dynamic and may even face headwinds from recession-sensitive macro reads. (4) With the move already largely realized and time compressed, the asymmetry of chasing here is unfavorable. The combination of limited time remaining and no confirming catalyst pushes this just below the 0.5 threshold — a pass.
?May 22, 12:11 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 2.52% intraday with no attributable headline, suggesting institutional flow or sector rotation rather than a news-driven spike that might fade quickly. The macro context shows T10Y3M at 2.2σ above trend, which is broadly positive for risk assets and refining/energy names like MPC in the near term, though the primary reactive sectors cited are Banks and Recession-sensitive names rather than energy directly. With 214 minutes remaining there is ample time for the move to extend, but the absence of a clear catalyst and no sector-specific tailwind keeps conviction moderate. No reversal signals are evident from the data provided. Baseline momentum continuation bias applies — the move has real size behind it — but without a stronger fundamental or sector driver, probability sits in the lower end of the continuation range.
?May 22, 11:06 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 2.14% today with no attributable headline, suggesting this is flow-driven or sector-driven momentum. The move is meaningful but not outsized. Macro context shows the T10Y3M spread is elevated at 2.2σ above trend, which is modestly negative for recession-sensitive sectors — refining/energy names like MPC can be caught in that crossfire, but the direct impact is indirect. With 280 minutes remaining (well over 4 hours), there is ample time for the move to extend, which is a positive. No reversal signals or fade patterns are evident from the data provided. The absence of news is not disqualifying per framework. Taken together, the setup is a modest momentum continuation — no strong reason to fade, but also no clear catalyst or sector tailwind to push confidence higher. Probability set modestly above threshold.
?May 22, 9:56 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is up 2.52% today with no attributable headline, suggesting institutional flow or sector rotation driving the move. The macro context shows T10Y3M at 0.89 (2.2σ above trend), which is mildly supportive for energy/refining names as a steepening yield curve can signal reflation expectations — though the primary reactive sectors flagged are Banks and recession-sensitive names, not energy directly. With 350 minutes remaining (well over 5 hours), there is ample time for the move to extend, which is a positive factor. The absence of news is not disqualifying — this is a clean momentum setup with real price action. No reversal signal or fade pattern is evident from the data. The macro backdrop is not hostile to MPC specifically. Overall, modest continuation probability above the threshold, reflecting the meaningful move with no catalyst-driven follow-through risk but no clear headwinds either.
?May 21, 2:56 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is down 3.31% intraday, which is a meaningful move representing real selling pressure. However, several factors temper continuation confidence. First, only 50 minutes remain until the forced close, which significantly limits the runway for further downside. Second, there are no recent headlines to explain the move, meaning it could be institutional rebalancing or sector rotation that may already be largely complete. Third, the macro context flags elevated inflation expectations (T10YIE at 1.7σ above trend), which is modestly negative for long-duration assets but MPC as an energy/refining name is not classically long-duration sensitive — this macro signal is not a strong tailwind for continued selling specifically in MPC. Fourth, a 3.3% drop without news often sees some mean reversion into the close as opportunistic buyers step in, particularly in a liquid large-cap name. The combination of limited time remaining, no catalytic news, and the typical late-session stabilization tendency in the absence of fresh negative flow leads to a slight lean against continuation. Probability sits just below the 0.5 trigger threshold — not a strong fade call, but insufficient evidence to endorse chasing the downside here.
?May 21, 1:20 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is down 2.62% intraday with no attributable headline, suggesting institutional-driven selling or sector rotation rather than a news-driven spike that might quickly reverse. The macro context shows elevated 10-year inflation expectations (T10YIE at 1.7σ above trend), which pressures energy/refining margins indirectly through cost-of-capital and demand sensitivity — modestly bearish for MPC. With 145 minutes remaining there is meaningful time for continuation, but the absence of a catalyst also means the move could consolidate or partially fade into the close. No reversal signals are evident from the data provided. The setup warrants a modest continuation bias — the move is real and has size behind it, but without confirming volume data or a clear fundamental driver, conviction is limited. Probability sits just above the 0.5 trigger threshold.
?May 21, 11:55 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is down 1.63% today, which is a moderate but not extreme intraday move for a refining/energy name. The move falls below the 2-5% threshold that would signal strong directional conviction, so it sits in the ordinary momentum bucket. No headlines are available to attribute the move to a specific catalyst, which neither confirms nor disqualifies continuation. The macro context shows elevated 10-year inflation expectations (T10YIE at 2.44, +1.7σ above trend), which is mildly negative for long-duration assets but MPC as an energy/refining stock is not directly rate-sensitive in the same way — this macro signal is largely neutral here. With 230 minutes remaining (nearly a full half-session), there is ample time for the move to extend if selling pressure persists, but also ample time for a mean-reversion bounce. No strong reversal signal is present, but no clear continuation catalyst either. Default to the system's bias toward taking the trade given bounded risk parameters, assigning minimum threshold probability.
?May 21, 9:06 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is down 1.77% today, which is a moderate but not extreme intraday move. No news headlines are available to explain the selling, so this is likely macro or sector-driven flow. The macro context shows 10Y inflation expectations (T10YIE) running 1.7σ above trend at 2.44 — elevated inflation expectations can pressure refining margins indirectly and weigh on energy/refining equities through cost-of-capital concerns. However, MPC as a refiner is not a pure long-duration play, so this macro factor has limited direct bearing. With 399 minutes remaining (well before close), there is ample time for the move to extend, but the sub-2% decline lacks the conviction of a strong trending session. No clear reversal signals are present, and the absence of a catalyst means the move could drift either direction. The modest magnitude and lack of supporting news keep this at borderline continuation odds — defaulting to 0.5 given no strong reason to expect either acceleration or fade.
?May 20, 12:16 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
MPC is down 2.39% intraday with no attributable news headline, suggesting the move is driven by sector-level or macro flow rather than a company-specific catalyst. With 210 minutes remaining there is ample time for continuation. The macro context shows T10YIE elevated at 2.5σ above trend — rising inflation expectations tend to pressure refiners indirectly through demand outlook and margin compression concerns, mildly supportive of the down move persisting. However, the absence of a specific catalyst means this could also be sympathetic selling or broader energy sector rotation that may stabilize. MPC as a refiner is not a classic long-duration sector name, so the macro signal is only tangentially relevant rather than a direct headwind. The move is meaningful at -2.39% but not extreme, and without volume data or a clear catalyst, conviction is limited. On balance, the momentum is moderately likely to continue into the close given the size of the move and time remaining, but this is a low-conviction read — probability sits just above the threshold.

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