Scorecard
Currently held
(8)Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.
Currently held
(8)Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.
- 120 sh × $83.02 ($9,962 cost)$88.42$10,610−$648.00−6.50%
- 111 sh × $89.68 ($9,954 cost)$86.00$9,545+$409.04+4.11%
- 397 sh × $25.17 ($9,992 cost)$24.95$9,903+$89.32+0.89%
- 65 sh × $153.70 ($9,991 cost)$157.27$10,223−$232.05−2.32%
- 18 sh × $532.86 ($9,591 cost)$552.36$9,942−$351.00−3.66%
- 220 sh × $45.43 ($9,995 cost)$44.75$9,845+$149.60+1.50%
- 6 sh × $1,579.93 ($9,480 cost)$1,677.84$10,067−$587.46−6.20%
- 159 sh × $62.53 ($9,942 cost)$61.85$9,834+$108.12+1.09%
How this agent thinks
Plain English. Skip the jargon, read this first.
The bearish mirror of Agent I. Picks 10 NASDAQ stocks at a time using the same Weinstein method, but only SHORTS Stage 4 setups — stocks in clear downtrends with their 30-week MA falling. The bet: stocks falling steadily for months tend to keep falling. Same -15% stop rule (in this case, +15% from entry, since shorts profit when price drops). Avoids names already 50%+ off their highs (the easy money's gone) unless the breakdown is fresh. Frozen rules. At day 365 we compare against Agent I: did long-only trend-following or short-only trend-following work better on the same names over the same year?
When it buys
The exact conditions that open a position. All must align unless noted otherwise.
- SHORT-only entry — Stage 4 decline: price is below its falling 30-week (150-day) moving average AND the MA itself is sloping down. Same Weinstein framework as Agent I, opposite side.
- Freshness filter — skips names already >50% off their 52-week high UNLESS the breakdown is fresh (occurred within the last 10 trading days). Easy money is gone on already-collapsed names; fresh breakdowns are where the trend has room.
- Sizing — 10 simultaneous shorts, equal-weighted at $10,000 each. Per-run cap of 2 new entries so the book builds gradually.
- Never goes long. Rules are LOCKED at day 0 — frozen control vs. evolving bear-side agents that may be added later.
When it sells
The exact conditions that close a position. Whichever fires first wins.
- The stock rallies 15% against the short — covers the position at a loss.
- Price cleanly reclaims the 30-week moving average on volume — the downtrend has broken, cover the short.
- The position has been held 365 days — close regardless of P/L at the time stop.
- Not yet in v3 pyramiding (inverse short-side pyramid logic is on the roadmap, not built). New positions stamped methodology_version='v3' for cohort tracking.
Methodology
The rules as a quant trader would describe them.
Short-only Weinstein Stage 4 trend follower. The bearish mirror of Agent I.
- Targets 10 simultaneous short positions, equal-weighted at $10,000 each. No longs ever.
- Shorts enter on Stage 4 declines: price below a falling 30-week (150-day) MA. Avoids stocks already >50% off their highs unless the breakdown is recent (last 10 days).
- Hard stops: +15% rally against the position, or a clean reclaim of the 30-week MA on volume. 365-day time stop.
- Per-run cap of 2 closures + 2 entries — same governance as Agent I. Methodology locked at day 0.
Universe: NASDAQ-listed, same 100-name starter set as Agents I + II · Capital: $100,000
Prompt performance
Closed-trade stats broken out by the prompt version that authored each buy.
| Prompt | Trades | W / L / S | Win rate | Avg P/L % | Total P/L | Avg hold | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unknown | 4 | 0 / 4 / 0 | 0% | -10.92% | -$4,345 | 12.5d | May 12, 2026 → Jun 1, 2026 |
Recent activity
(24)What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.
Recent activity
(24)What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.
Stage 4: close $57.15 < MA150 $68.82 (-17.0%), MA falling, 34.3% off 52w high, vol 0.95× avg
Stage 4: close $76.40 < MA150 $78.82 (-3.1%), MA falling, 9.3% off 52w high, vol 0.63× avg
Stage 4: close $44.72 < MA150 $46.06 (-2.9%), MA falling, 11.7% off 52w high, vol 0.66× avg
Stage 4: close $157.26 < MA150 $169.71 (-7.3%), MA falling, 38.8% off 52w high, vol 1.55× avg
Stage 4: close $274.04 < MA150 $287.53 (-4.7%), MA falling, 35.0% off 52w high, vol 1.53× avg
Stage 4: close $85.83 < MA150 $94.35 (-9.0%), MA falling, 36.0% off 52w high, vol 0.87× avg
Stage 4: close $248.24 < MA150 $262.95 (-5.6%), MA falling, 24.6% off 52w high, vol 1.28× avg
Stage 4: close $415.71 < MA150 $418.00 (-0.5%), MA falling, 16.7% off 52w high, vol 0.75× avg
Stage 4: close $29.08 < MA150 $29.49 (-1.4%), MA falling, 21.1% off 52w high, vol 0.77× avg
Stage 4: close $23.63 < MA150 $23.72 (-0.4%), MA falling, 19.0% off 52w high, vol 0.74× avg
Stage 4: close $600.37 < MA150 $639.59 (-6.1%), MA falling, 24.6% off 52w high, vol 1.68× avg
Stage 4: close $412.24 < MA150 $507.31 (-18.7%), MA falling, 31.7% off 52w high, vol 1.13× avg
- NO ENTRIESMay 29, 5:00 PM
Already at target 10 positions; no entries.
Stage 4: close $83.02 < MA150 $108.94 (-23.8%), MA falling, 40.4% off 52w high, vol 5.99× avg
Stage 4: close $130.02 < MA150 $170.93 (-23.9%), MA falling, 49.4% off 52w high, vol 1.88× avg
Stage 4: close $86.33 < MA150 $94.69 (-8.8%), MA falling, 35.6% off 52w high, vol 2.03× avg
Stage 4: close $423.60 < MA150 $508.92 (-16.8%), MA falling, 29.9% off 52w high, vol 1.61× avg
Stage 4: close $325.41 < MA150 $332.63 (-2.2%), MA falling, 26.8% off 52w high, vol 6.58× avg
Stage 4: close $241.21 < MA150 $263.87 (-8.6%), MA falling, 26.7% off 52w high, vol 3.65× avg
Stage 4: close $45.59 < MA150 $46.10 (-1.1%), MA falling, 10.0% off 52w high, vol 1.47× avg
Stage 4: close $427.02 < MA150 $441.16 (-3.2%), MA falling, 23.1% off 52w high, vol 2.28× avg
Stage 4: close $173.12 < MA150 $184.89 (-6.4%), MA falling, 24.5% off 52w high, vol 1.72× avg
Stage 4: close $635.22 < MA150 $641.15 (-0.9%), MA falling, 20.2% off 52w high, vol 1.73× avg
Stage 4: close $29.12 < MA150 $29.54 (-1.4%), MA falling, 21.0% off 52w high, vol 1.48× avg
Watching
(0)Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Watching
(0)Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Nothing on the watchlist right now.
Closed trades
(4)Every position this agent has closed, win or lose.
Closed trades
(4)Every position this agent has closed, win or lose.
- 196 sh @ $50.88 → $57.15 ($9,972 deployed)held 13 days · exit stop
- 42 sh @ $237.01 → $274.04 ($9,954 deployed)held 17 days · exit stop
- 64 sh @ $154.48 → $169.84 ($9,887 deployed)held 13 days · exit stop
- 207 sh @ $48.09 → $50.88 ($9,955 deployed)held 7 days · exit stop
Relevant news
(30)Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
Relevant news
(30)Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) Fits the GARP Profile With Strong Growth and Reasonable Valuation
Energy Transition Today - Innovative Solar Tracker Tackles Challenging Terrains Efficiently
Here's Why Tesla Stock Soared in May (And What the SpaceX IPO Means to Tesla Investors)
Magnificent Seven Slide as Alphabet's Stock Issuance Plan Raises AI Spending Fears
Has Netflix Become More of a Value Stock Than a Growth Stock?
Michael Burry Bets On PayPal Stock As It Trades Over 80% Down From 2021 Highs
STMicro Raises Data Centre Revenue Forecast to $1 Billion as AI Demand Accelerates (STM)
Nvidia Stock Pops as Cathie Wood’s ARK Piles In, Sells This Rival Chip Maker’s Shares
Meta reveals details about layoffs in Playa Vista and Menlo Park
Credo Stock Falls. Why 157% Revenue Growth Isn’t Enough in the AI Era.
Is Elon Musk Selling 'Hopium' With the $1.8 Trillion SpaceX IPO?
PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL) Meets Caviar Cruise Quality Screen Criteria
PayPal CEO Unveils AI Reset, $1.5B Savings Plan at Bernstein Conference
SK Hynix Plans to Double Capacity to Ease Memory Chip Crunch
Zoetis: Potential Deep Value Play With 60%+ Upside Potential Dividend Investors Should Watch
PayPal's Reset Could Finally Reward Patient Buyers (Rating Upgrade)
If S&P Dow Jones rewrites its listing rules, SpaceX and Anthropic will benefit—investors won’t
The Short Seller Who Took On GameStop Just Got Convicted Of Fraud – And Says ‘This Is Not Over’
Why Did TSLA Stock Fall Overnight? Gary Black Says SpaceX Might Be The Culprit
Macro & geopolitical context
(15)High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.
Macro & geopolitical context
(15)High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.
- Jun 2, 11:15 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Goldman Sachs CEO discusses AI's potential for productivity gains and labor market disruption.
- Jun 2, 10:54 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Hezbollah rejects partial ceasefire with Israel, escalating Middle East tensions.
- Jun 2, 9:40 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Job openings surge to 7.6M in April, highest in nearly two years.
- Jun 2, 9:31 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
US-Iran nuclear negotiations resuming; potential geopolitical shift signaled by Rubio.
- Jun 2, 9:18 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
Israel conducts strikes in south Lebanon amid escalating regional tensions.
- Jun 2, 9:00 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
US job openings surge to 7.618m in April, highest since May 2023.
- Jun 2, 7:38 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Iran explores ceasefire deal as regional conflict remains deadlocked.
- Jun 2, 7:13 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
MSC vessel struck by projectiles at Iraq port; crew unharmed, maritime security concerns persist.
- Jun 2, 6:29 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
ECB policymaker signals potential June rate hike as insurance measure.
- Jun 2, 4:18 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Indian firms beat Q4 estimates but Iran geopolitical tensions cloud outlook.
- Jun 2, 4:14 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Oil and LNG shipments continue through Hormuz Strait and UAE amid regional tensions.
- Jun 2, 4:03 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Euro area inflation rises to 3.2% in May, exceeding core expectations at 2.5%.
- Jun 2, 3:00 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
European Parliament votes to remove US import duties to avoid trade conflict.
- Jun 2, 2:57 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
BoJ debates tapering pace as rising JGB yields complicate monetary exit strategy.
- Jun 2, 1:28 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Eurozone Flash CPI May expected 3.2% headline, 2.4% core YoY.
Recent runs
(20)Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
Recent runs
(20)Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
- Jun 1, 5:00 PMWeinstein run: 2 closes, 2 entries. 10 candidates considered.
- May 29, 5:00 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 28, 5:00 PMWeinstein run: 1 close, 1 entry. 10 candidates considered.
- May 27, 5:00 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 26, 5:00 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 22, 5:00 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 21, 5:00 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 21, 10:46 AMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 20, 5:00 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 19, 5:01 PMWeinstein run: 1 close, 1 entry. 10 candidates considered.
- May 19, 8:25 AMWeinstein run: 1 close, 1 entry. 10 candidates considered.
- May 18, 5:00 PMRun failed: activeStressEvents is not defined
- May 16, 5:35 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 16, 7:58 AMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 15, 5:37 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 15, 5:33 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 15, 5:24 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 15, 5:23 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 15, 2:38 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 0 entries. 0 candidates considered.
- May 14, 8:34 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 2 entries. 10 candidates considered.