The Ledger

VLO

Valero Energy CorpEnergyinsider_universe

Last close $266.20Jun 28, 2026

Day +2.63%

Everything we've seen

!Jun 29, 4:50 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
?Jun 29, 10:00 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is up 3.28% intraday with no headline catalyst, suggesting broad sector or macro flow (energy/refining names sometimes move on crude spreads or crack spread dynamics without an obvious news trigger). The move is meaningful in size — 3.28% represents real conviction from institutional flow. However, several factors temper enthusiasm: (1) 345 minutes remaining is actually quite a lot of session time, but at ~3.28% the move is already near the upper end of typical single-session range for VLO, raising mean-reversion risk into the close; (2) the macro context shows T10YIE at 2.1σ below trend — lower inflation expectations can be modestly negative for energy sector names as it may signal demand softness or a deflationary pulse, providing a mild headwind; (3) no news means we cannot identify a fundamental re-rating catalyst that would drive sustained buying pressure. The absence of a fade or reversal signal, combined with the principle that a move of this magnitude reflects real flow, keeps the probability just above 0.5. This is a borderline continuation read — the move is real, time is ample, but macro context and proximity to the upper daily range cap confidence.
!Jun 29, 10:00 AMsignalseverity 0.03
Agent 7 — Day Trader — day_trade_skipped
VLO is up 3.28% intraday with no headline catalyst, suggesting broad sector or macro flow (energy/refining names sometimes move on crude spreads or crack spread dynamics without an obvious news trigger). The move is meaningful in size — 3.28% represents real conviction from institutional flow. However, several factors temper enthusiasm: (1) 345 minutes remaining is actually quite a lot of session time, but at ~3.28% the move is already near the upper end of typical single-session range for VLO, raising mean-reversion risk into the close; (2) the macro context shows T10YIE at 2.1σ below trend — lower inflation expectations can be modestly negative for energy sector names as it may signal demand softness or a deflationary pulse, providing a mild headwind; (3) no news means we cannot identify a fundamental re-rating catalyst that would drive sustained buying pressure. The absence of a fade or reversal signal, combined with the principle that a move of this magnitude reflects real flow, keeps the probability just above 0.5. This is a borderline continuation read — the move is real, time is ample, but macro context and proximity to the upper daily range cap confidence.
!Jun 29, 9:51 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 29, 7:06 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 26, 12:49 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 26, 11:51 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 26, 10:48 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 26, 10:35 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 26, 10:21 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 26, 9:50 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 26, 9:35 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 26, 9:17 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 26, 7:03 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 5:47 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 5:31 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 5:16 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 5:06 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 4:47 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 4:32 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 4:21 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 3:47 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 3:33 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 3:17 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 2:48 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 2:35 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 2:20 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 1:47 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 25, 1:35 PMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 23, 9:16 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
!Jun 23, 9:05 AMsignal
Agent 6 — Options Momentum — insufficient_capital
?Jun 22, 7:05 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 8 — Dip Buyer (Peer-Aware) — decide: skip
VLO is a well-established, vertically integrated refiner with historically strong cash flows and shareholder returns, making it fundamentally sound. The 11.1% drop appears sector-driven rather than idiosyncratic — Energy (XLE) ranks 10th of 11 sectors by 30-day relative strength and is underperforming SPY by -7.43pts over 30 days, suggesting the move is a broad energy sector selloff rather than VLO-specific deterioration. However, there are no confirmation signals (no insider buying, no unusual call flow, no analyst upgrades), and today's sector flow proxy is deeply negative (-$35M), indicating continued selling pressure in the space.
?Jun 22, 7:05 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 5 — Dip Buyer (Evolving) — decide: skip
VLO is a fundamentally sound, large-cap refiner with no evidence of fundamental deterioration in recent filings and no imminent earnings catalyst to create binary risk. The 11.1% dip from the 30-day high appears sector-driven rather than idiosyncratic — Energy (XLE) ranks 10th of 11 sectors by 30-day relative strength and is down ~7pts vs. SPY over 5 and 30 days — awarding a sector-wide dip signal. No earnings are visible in the window (+1 clean runway). However, the signal stack is thin: no insider buying, no unusual options flow, and sector flow proxy is deeply negative (-$35M). The 2s10s spread at +0.29pp is not inverted (neutral), VIX at 18.44 is below the 75th percentile (neutral/mild positive), and the 10Y at 4.49% is just below the 4.5% headwind threshold — neutral for a value/defensive energy name like VLO. Net signal score: approximately +2 (sector dip +1, no near-term earnings +1), which normally supports a buy, but the absence of any confirming insider or options signal tempers conviction and the broad energy sector remains under sustained pressure.
?Jun 18, 6:21 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 4 — Dip Buyer (Frozen) — decide: skip
VLO (Valero Energy) is a large, well-established independent petroleum refiner with historically strong cash generation and shareholder returns. The 11.1% pullback from its 30-day high appears macro-driven rather than company-specific — there are no negative news headlines in the window and SEC filings contain no flagged metrics suggesting operational deterioration. However, the macro backdrop is concerning for energy: the T10Y2Y spread is historically compressed (0.29, 3.5σ below trend), signaling growth fears that tend to pressure crack spreads and refining margins, which are the primary driver of VLO's earnings. With no firm positive catalyst visible and a macro headwind building, confidence in a near-term rebound to the prior high is moderate-to-low.
?Jun 18, 6:05 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 8 — Dip Buyer (Peer-Aware) — decide: skip
VLO is a well-established, vertically integrated refiner with historically strong cash flows and shareholder returns, making it fundamentally sound. The 11.1% drop appears sector-driven rather than idiosyncratic — Energy (XLE) ranks 10th of 11 sectors by 30-day relative strength and is underperforming SPY by -7.43pts over 30 days, suggesting the move is a broad energy sector selloff rather than VLO-specific deterioration. However, there are no confirmation signals (no insider buying, no unusual call flow, no analyst upgrades), and today's sector flow proxy is deeply negative (-$35M), indicating continued selling pressure in the space.
?Jun 18, 6:04 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 5 — Dip Buyer (Evolving) — decide: skip
VLO is a fundamentally sound, large-cap refiner with no evidence of fundamental deterioration in recent filings and no imminent earnings catalyst to create binary risk. The 11.1% dip from the 30-day high appears sector-driven rather than idiosyncratic — Energy (XLE) ranks 10th of 11 sectors by 30-day relative strength and is down ~7pts vs. SPY over 5 and 30 days — awarding a sector-wide dip signal. No earnings are visible in the window (+1 clean runway). However, the signal stack is thin: no insider buying, no unusual options flow, and sector flow proxy is deeply negative (-$35M). The 2s10s spread at +0.29pp is not inverted (neutral), VIX at 18.44 is below the 75th percentile (neutral/mild positive), and the 10Y at 4.49% is just below the 4.5% headwind threshold — neutral for a value/defensive energy name like VLO. Net signal score: approximately +2 (sector dip +1, no near-term earnings +1), which normally supports a buy, but the absence of any confirming insider or options signal tempers conviction and the broad energy sector remains under sustained pressure.
?Jun 15, 6:06 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 20 — SIR Price/Volume — skip
[distribution] The 20-day PV path traced a classic distributive arc: VLO rallied quietly from ~$240 (2026-05-27) to a cluster high near $258–$261 (2026-06-01 through 2026-06-12) almost entirely on subdued volume of 2.2M–2.7M ADV — well below the 20-day mean of 2.8M — suggesting no meaningful demand sponsorship driving the advance. Today, 2026-06-15, price broke sharply below that entire cluster (-4.45% to $247.16) on 4.3M shares, a volume z-score of +2.71, the heaviest single session in the lookback period. In SIR 2-D space, the path has lurched down-and-right: the highest-volume day in 20 sessions is also the largest down-day, a textbook distribution signal where supply is being revealed only as price declines accelerate. Risks: A decisive recapture of the $255–$258 cluster on volume exceeding today's 4.3M would invalidate the distributive read and suggest the down-move was a shakeout rather than distribution. Additionally, a rapid mean-reversion in the T10Y2Y spread above trend could shift macro tailwinds back toward Energy, undermining the bearish path signal.
?Jun 15, 10:05 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is down -6.49% intraday with no attributable headline, suggesting this is either a sector-driven or macro-driven flush rather than a company-specific event. Refining/energy names like VLO can be sensitive to crude price swings, crack spread compression, or broader risk-off flows. The magnitude of the move (6.49%) represents meaningful institutional selling conviction. The macro backdrop shows a flat-to-slightly-inverted yield curve (T10Y2Y at 0.39, 2.2σ below trend), which is mildly risk-off and not supportive of a cyclical reversal. With 340 minutes remaining (still early-to-mid session), there is ample time for the move to extend further into the close if selling pressure persists. No specific reversal catalyst is evident — no news, no obvious fade pattern described. The absence of a clear reason to reverse, combined with meaningful downside momentum and a risk-off macro read, gives a modest edge to continuation. Probability kept conservative given no volume data and no specific fundamental driver to anchor the thesis.
?Jun 9, 10:06 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is down 1.76% with 340 minutes remaining — a moderate move with ample time left in the session. No headlines are available to explain the drop, which is common for refining stocks that often move on crude spreads, crack spreads, or broader energy sector flows. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 2σ below trend, slight flattening bias) is modestly unfavorable for cyclicals like refiners, as flat/inverted curves can signal economic softness and pressure refining margins expectations. However, the move is not yet large enough to indicate extreme conviction, and without a clear catalyst or strong volume confirmation, there is no strong reason to expect aggressive continuation. The setup is borderline: modest downward momentum, supportive macro lean (flattening = slight headwind for cyclicals), and sufficient time remaining. Assigning a slight edge to continuation given the macro tailwind for bears, but this is a low-conviction read.
?Jun 8, 9:50 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is up 2.49% intraday, a meaningful move reflecting real institutional flow. With 355 minutes remaining (nearly a full session still ahead), there is ample time for continuation. No headlines are available to explain the move, but per guidance, absence of news is not disqualifying — large price moves often precede or occur without attributed catalysts. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 2.5σ below trend, yield curve near flat/slightly inverted) is mildly cautious for cyclicals and financials but VLO as a refining/energy name is not directly in the most reactive sectors cited (banks, defensives). Energy/refining names can trade on crack spread dynamics, crude moves, or sector rotation independent of yield curve shape. The move's magnitude (2.49%) is in the range where momentum tends to persist more often than fade intraday, especially early-to-mid session. No reversal signals or fade pattern evidence is present. No thin volume warning. Overall, this is an ordinary momentum setup with no strong reason to expect a fade — probability sits in the 0.5-0.65 range, leaning modestly toward continuation.
?Jun 3, 3:35 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is up 1.70% today, a modest but real move. However, with only 10 minutes remaining until the forced close, there is virtually no time for meaningful continuation. The risk/reward is unfavorable at this stage — even a strong setup would be constrained by the time cutoff. The macro context (T10Y2Y flat curve environment) is not directly supportive of refining/energy names. No news catalyst is present to sustain buying pressure into the final minutes. With such a short window, the probability of capturing additional upside before the 3:45 PM ET flatten is low, and the move may already be fully priced into end-of-day flows. Leaning below 0.5 purely on time constraints.
?Jun 3, 9:20 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is up 2.27% today with no headline catalyst identified, suggesting the move is driven by sector or macro flow rather than a one-time news event. The macro context shows T10Y2Y at 0.42, which is 2.0σ below its 24-month trend — a relatively flat/slightly steepening curve environment that is not overtly hostile to refining/energy names. VLO as a refiner is not a primary beneficiary of curve steepening nor directly harmed by it, so macro is roughly neutral. With 385 minutes remaining (well over 6 hours implies this is early-to-mid session), there is ample time for the move to extend. A 2.27% move has already demonstrated meaningful directional conviction and institutional flow. The absence of news does not negate the momentum signal. No reversal patterns or volume red flags are indicated. The setup is borderline ordinary momentum — no strong tailwind but no reason to fade either. Assigning a modest continuation probability above the 0.5 threshold consistent with a normal momentum read.
?Jun 2, 3:41 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is up 2.46% intraday with only 5 minutes remaining until the forced close. The move itself is meaningful and represents real conviction, but with virtually no time left on the clock, there is almost no runway for continuation to the +3% target. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 2σ below trend, a flattening curve) is modestly negative for refining/energy names indirectly through demand/economic outlook but is not the primary concern here. The dominant factor is the extreme time constraint — 5 minutes is insufficient for the position to develop meaningfully toward any target, and the risk of a last-minute fade or mean reversion into the close is non-trivial. No supporting news catalyst is present to sustain buying pressure into the bell. Probability falls below the 0.5 threshold solely due to the time remaining.
?May 26, 9:00 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is up 2.43% today, a meaningful move indicating real institutional flow into the refining/energy sector. With 405 minutes remaining (roughly 6.75 hours — noting this seems unusually large for an intraday window, but taken at face value there is substantial time for the move to develop), there is ample runway for continuation. No headlines are present, but absence of news is not a disqualifier — this appears to be sector/flow-driven. The macro context (T10Y2Y at 0.43, 1.9σ below trend) reflects a flatter yield curve, which is modestly supportive for energy/refining names that are less rate-sensitive than banks. VLO as an independent refiner is not a primary beneficiary or victim of curve dynamics, so macro context is largely neutral here. The 2.43% move sits in the lower bound of the 2-5% 'meaningful conviction' range, suggesting real but not overwhelming directional pressure. No reversal signals or fade patterns are noted. On balance, momentum is modestly positive with no strong countervailing forces, warranting a slight lean toward continuation but not strong conviction.
?May 22, 3:36 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is up 2.30% with only 10 minutes remaining until the forced close. The move is meaningful in magnitude, suggesting real institutional flow, but with only 10 minutes left there is almost no runway for continuation to the +3% target. The macro context (T10Y3M elevated at 2.2σ above trend) is modestly negative for refining/energy names via recession-sensitivity signaling, though this is a secondary concern. No headlines to explain the move, which is neutral per guidance. The dominant factor here is time: 10 minutes is insufficient to realistically achieve the profit target, and late-session fades are common as momentum traders exit. The risk/reward of entering a long here is asymmetric against us — the stop at -1.5% is reachable quickly into the close, while +3% from current levels ($254.02) is nearly impossible in 10 minutes. Probability set below 0.5 solely due to time constraint and insufficient runway.
?May 22, 2:11 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is up 2.13% today with no attributed headline catalyst, suggesting real institutional flow behind the move. However, several factors temper enthusiasm: (1) 94 minutes remaining is moderate but not ample — less room to run and more exposure to late-session fade risk; (2) macro context shows T10Y3M at +2.2σ above trend, which is a steepening/elevated yield environment that is more supportive of financials/banks than refiners like VLO — no direct tailwind here; (3) energy/refining sector moves without a news driver can sometimes represent sector rotation or crude price moves that may already be priced in by mid-session; (4) no headlines to anchor a thesis or confirm sustained buyer presence. The move is meaningful and momentum-based positioning is warranted by the system's favorable risk/reward (tight -1.5% stop vs. +3% target), but the setup lacks clear continuation pressure — this is a borderline ordinary momentum read. Probability set just above 0.5 to take the trade, reflecting positive price action while acknowledging absence of catalysts, macro neutrality for the sector, and moderate time remaining.
?May 22, 10:25 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is up 1.79% today, a modest but real move suggesting some directional conviction. At 320 minutes remaining, there is ample time for continuation. However, the macro context is mildly headwindy: a T10Y3M reading 2.2σ above its 24-month trend signals a steepening yield curve environment that historically pressures recession-sensitive and energy-refining names as growth concerns can weigh on crack spread outlook. No supporting news catalyst is present to explain or sustain the move, which limits conviction. The move itself (~1.79%) is below the 2-5% threshold that would signal unusually strong institutional conviction. Overall, momentum is modestly positive with no specific fade signal, but macro context provides a mild drag. Assigning a slight edge to continuation given time remaining and bounded risk profile, but this is a low-conviction setup.
?May 21, 3:26 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is down 3.80% with only 19 minutes remaining until the forced close. The extremely limited time window is the dominant factor here — even if downside momentum is genuine, there is simply insufficient time for the move to extend meaningfully before the 3:45 PM cutoff, and late-session mean reversion or covering is common after a sharp intraday decline of this magnitude. The macro context (elevated 10Y inflation expectations at 1.7σ above trend) is modestly negative for refining/energy names as it pressures crack spread economics, but this is not a sharp near-term catalyst. No headlines are available to confirm a fundamental driver, and without a clear news catalyst sustaining selling pressure, a 3.8% down move in a single session is more likely to attract dip buyers or short covering in the final minutes. The combination of very little time remaining and the elevated reversal risk after a large intraday drop pushes continuation probability below 0.5.
?May 21, 1:50 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is down 4.40% intraday — a meaningful move that reflects real institutional selling pressure. No headlines are available to explain the move, but absence of news does not invalidate the momentum signal; large refining/energy names can move on crude spreads, crack spread dynamics, or sector rotation flows without discrete catalysts. The macro context shows elevated inflation expectations (T10YIE 1.7σ above trend), which is modestly negative for refiners via margin compression fears and broader risk-off sentiment in energy equities. With 115 minutes remaining, there is sufficient time for continuation into the close, though the move is already mature at -4.40%, raising the probability that some mean-reversion sellers step in. No reversal pattern is evident from the data provided. On balance, the path of least resistance remains lower — large down moves in energy names tend to attract additional selling from systematic momentum and sector rotation strategies — but conviction is moderate given the lack of a specific catalyst and the already-extended intraday range. Probability set modestly above 0.5 to trigger a short position consistent with system rules.
?May 21, 12:25 PMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is down ~1.95% intraday with no identifiable news catalyst, suggesting the move is driven by sector/macro flow or quiet institutional selling rather than a specific headline. The macro context shows 10-year inflation expectations (T10YIE) elevated at 1.7σ above trend — refiners like VLO can be pressured by rising inflation expectations through crack spread and demand uncertainty dynamics, providing a mild tailwind for continued downside. However, at 200 minutes remaining there is meaningful time for either continuation or mean reversion. The move is at the lower end of the 2-5% 'meaningful conviction' range (~1.95%), so momentum signal is present but not strongly emphatic. No reversal pattern is evident from the data provided, and absence of news does not negate the move. With no strong catalyst for a reversal and modest macro pressure, the base case is mild continuation, but conviction is low — probability sits just above the 0.5 threshold.
?May 20, 10:55 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is down ~1.90% with 290 minutes remaining — a meaningful move but not extreme for a refining name. No specific headlines are driving the move, which leaves the catalyst ambiguous. The macro context shows 10Y inflation expectations (T10YIE) elevated at 2.5σ above trend, which is a mixed signal for refiners: higher inflation expectations can support crude/energy prices but also pressure margins if crack spreads compress. VLO as a refiner is not a classic long-duration sensitive sector, so the macro headwind from elevated real rate expectations is moderate rather than severe. With nearly 5 hours left in the session, there is ample time for the move to extend, but also for a mean-reversion bid. The absence of a clear news catalyst makes this a momentum-only read. The move is below the 2% threshold where conviction would be higher. On balance, slight lean toward continuation given time remaining and no counter-catalyst visible, but this is a borderline setup — assigning 0.51.
?May 20, 9:30 AMdecisionconsidered
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: skip
VLO is up 1.59% today, a modest but real move suggesting genuine buying flow. No headlines are available to explain the move, which is common and not disqualifying. The macro context shows elevated inflation expectations (T10YIE 2.5σ above trend), which can be a mild tailwind for energy/refining names like VLO as higher inflation expectations often support commodity-linked equities and refining margins indirectly. However, the elevated rate environment associated with high inflation breakevens can create headwinds for equity multiples broadly. With 375 minutes remaining (well over 6 hours, suggesting this is early-to-mid session), there is ample time for continuation. The move is not large enough to suggest an exhaustion top, and there's no reversal signal evident. No strong catalysts either way — this reads as ordinary momentum with a slight lean toward continuation given the energy sector macro backdrop and time remaining. Probability set modestly above 0.5.
✓May 18, 12:56 PMdecisionacted
Agent 7 — Day Trader — decide: buy
VLO is up 3.54% intraday with no attributable headline, suggesting institutional flow or sector-driven buying rather than a news spike that might fade quickly. The macro context is supportive: 5-year inflation breakevens (T5YIE) are printing 2.5σ above trend, which is explicitly bullish for energy names like refiners. Elevated inflation expectations support crack spread assumptions and energy sector rotation. With 170 minutes remaining there is ample time for continuation into the close. No reversal pattern is indicated — the move appears directional rather than a morning spike fading. The absence of news is not a fade signal here; large moves without headlines often reflect systematic or macro-driven flows that persist. Probability kept moderate (not high) because: (1) a 3.54% move already captures significant intraday value and some profit-taking into the close is plausible, (2) no volume data is available to confirm conviction, and (3) VLO as a refiner is sensitive to crude spreads which can shift intraday. On balance, the macro tailwind and time remaining support a mild continuation bias.
▢May 17, 8:00 PMjournal
Agent 7 — Day Trader opened long 7 @ $259.62
▣May 17, 8:00 PMjournaltime_stop
Agent 7 — Day Trader closed long 7 @ $258.38 (-$8.68)
EOD forced close — day trader never carries overnight

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