No. I · Vol. I
Tuesday, May 12, 2026

The Ledger

A paper-trading practice in the tradition of weekly Sunday charts.

Portfolio
$997,470
-$2,530 (-0.25%)
Markets
DIA-0.01%IWM-1.59%QQQ-1.73%SPY-0.61%VXX-0.60%IEF-0.33%GLD-1.21%USO+3.72%UUP+0.48%DIA-0.01%IWM-1.59%QQQ-1.73%SPY-0.61%VXX-0.60%IEF-0.33%GLD-1.21%USO+3.72%UUP+0.48%
Wires·
Standing by — markets watched, no fresh items.

Agent VI — Options Momentum

Connecting…

Buys calls on upward pressure, puts on downward — synthetic Black-Scholes pricing

Market: SP500 · Started with $100,000

Equity
$100,058
Cash
$95,292
Positions
$4,766
5 open
Total P/L
+$58
+0.06%
Closed Trades
0
none yet
Realized P/L
+$0
Win Rate

How this agent thinks

Plain English. Skip the jargon, read this first.

Looks for stocks that have moved 5% or more in 5 days AND have just broken above or below their 20-day price trend. When a stock is moving up with confirmation, the agent buys call options (which profit if the stock keeps rising). When moving down with confirmation, it buys puts (which profit if the stock keeps falling). All options expire in 30 days. Because we don't have a real options data feed, the agent uses a math formula called Black-Scholes to estimate what each option should be worth — it locks in the volatility number at entry so the bet is purely on direction, not on changing volatility. Sells at -50% (cuts losers) or +100% (lets winners run), and always closes 5 days before expiration to avoid losing all the time value.

Methodology

The rules as a quant trader would describe them.

Buys calls on upward 5-day pressure, puts on downward — synthetic Black-Scholes pricing.

  • Triggers when a stock moves ≥5% in 5 days AND the close has crossed past its 20-day moving average in the same direction (momentum confirmed by trend).
  • Buys ATM calls on upward pressure, ATM puts on downward. 30-day expiry. Strike rounded to nearest standard increment ($5 above $100, $1 below).
  • Synthetic premium via Black-Scholes using 20-day realized volatility as IV (locked at entry to isolate the directional bet from IV regime shifts). Risk-free rate sourced from the FRED 10-year Treasury yield via the macro layer.
  • Sizing: 1% NAV per position. Exits: -50% premium stop, +100% premium target, close 5 days before expiry to escape the worst of theta decay.

Universe: S&P 500 starter set (same as the dip buyers) · Capital: $100,000

Currently held (5)

Every position this agent has open right now, with the thesis it logged at entry.

  • CRMlongopened May 11, 2026+$56
    1 contracts · PUT $175 exp Jun 10, 2026 · entry $9.89 · current $10.45

    PUT CRM K=175 2026-06-11: 5-day -7.06% below 20-day MA, IV=48.2%

  • NVDAlongopened May 10, 2026-$93
    1 contracts · CALL $220 exp Jun 9, 2026 · entry $9.98 · current $9.06

    CALL NVDA K=220 2026-06-10: 5-day 10.57% above 20-day MA, IV=39.3%

  • AAPLlongopened May 10, 2026+$160
    1 contracts · CALL $290 exp Jun 9, 2026 · entry $9.87 · current $11.48

    CALL AAPL K=290 2026-06-10: 5-day 5.17% above 20-day MA, IV=26.3%

  • CSCOlongopened May 10, 2026+$131
    3 contracts · CALL $98 exp Jun 9, 2026 · entry $3.22 · current $3.65

    CALL CSCO K=98 2026-06-10: 5-day 5.59% above 20-day MA, IV=28.1%

  • NFLXlongopened May 10, 2026-$196
    2 contracts · PUT $85 exp Jun 9, 2026 · entry $3.84 · current $2.86

    PUT NFLX K=85 2026-06-10: 5-day -6.21% below 20-day MA, IV=42.9%

Recent decisions — acted

Entries, exits, rotations the agent committed to.

  1. May 12, 11:04 AMCRMbuy

    PUT on CRM — 5-day return -7.06% with close below 20-day MA ($181.59). IV 48.2%. Sized 1 contract(s) at $9.89 premium.

  2. May 11, 3:09 PMNVDAbuy

    CALL on NVDA — 5-day return 10.57% with close above 20-day MA ($204.69). IV 39.3%. Sized 1 contract(s) at $9.98 premium.

  3. May 11, 2:04 PMNFLXbuy

    PUT on NFLX — 5-day return -6.21% with close below 20-day MA ($93.74). IV 42.9%. Sized 2 contract(s) at $3.84 premium.

  4. May 11, 2:04 PMCSCObuy

    CALL on CSCO — 5-day return 5.59% with close above 20-day MA ($89.68). IV 28.1%. Sized 3 contract(s) at $3.22 premium.

  5. May 11, 2:04 PMAAPLbuy

    CALL on AAPL — 5-day return 5.17% with close above 20-day MA ($274.81). IV 26.3%. Sized 1 contract(s) at $9.87 premium.

Recently considered — skipped

Candidates the agent looked at and chose not to act on. The rationale tells you what it weighed.

No recent skipped decisions.

Watching (0)

Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.

Nothing on the watchlist right now.

Relevant news

Recent headlines on the tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.

  1. May 11, 2:53 PMAAPLvia finnhub

    Sector Update: Tech Stocks Rise Late Afternoon

  2. May 11, 2:51 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Big tech earnings reinforce strength of AI demand across chips, cloud and software: Wedbush

  3. May 11, 2:34 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    XRP Price Prediction: Where Will XRP Be in 1 Year?

  4. May 11, 2:25 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    President Trump's Golden Dome Missile Shield Just Got $3.2 Billion Bigger

  5. May 11, 2:15 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Circle Internet Stock Is Up 68% in 2026: Is It Outperforming Other Crypto Stocks Like Strategy and Bitmine?

  6. May 11, 2:14 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Stock Market Today: Dow Up; Intel Gain Reaches 260%; Dividend Play Tests Entry (Live Coverage)

  7. May 11, 2:03 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Texas Capital Wealth Management Increases TCBI Holdings

  8. May 11, 1:59 PMAAPLvia finnhub

    Why One Fund Made a $23 Million Bet on This Addiction-Treatment Stock Amid a Staggering Rally

  9. May 11, 1:50 PMCSCOvia finnhub

    Nearly 40% of Trump’s China CEO Delegation Have Crypto Ties

  10. May 11, 1:50 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    2 Aerospace Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next 20 Years

  11. May 11, 1:25 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Alphabet Is on the Brink of Beating NVIDIA in Market Value: ETFs to Buy

  12. May 11, 1:25 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    1 Magnificent Dividend Stock Down 8% to Buy and Hold Forever

  13. May 11, 1:24 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Alphabet Is Issuing Bonds in Yen. Why Not?

  14. May 11, 1:15 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Hyperliquid Is Trending Again. But Should You Buy the Coin?

  15. May 11, 1:05 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Which S&P500 stocks are the most active on Monday?

  16. May 11, 1:04 PMCSCOvia finnhub

    Equities Rise Intraday, Oil Jumps as Markets Montior Middle East Developments

  17. May 11, 1:04 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Equities Rise Intraday, Oil Jumps as Markets Montior Middle East Developments

  18. May 11, 1:00 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Check out the stocks that are attracting the most attention and driving market activity.

  19. May 11, 12:39 PMCSCOvia finnhub

    Buy Cisco Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings? Here's What to Know

  20. May 11, 12:38 PMAAPLvia finnhub

    Musk, Cook Set to Join Trump for Xi Summit, White House Says

  21. May 11, 12:38 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Musk, Cook Set to Join Trump for Xi Summit, White House Says

  22. May 11, 12:38 PMCSCOvia finnhub

    Musk, Cook Set to Join Trump for Xi Summit, White House Says

  23. May 11, 12:30 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Better Oil Stock: Occidental Petroleum vs. Energy Transfer

  24. May 11, 12:25 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Before You Invest in SpaceX, Consider This Top Competitor

  25. May 11, 12:22 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Stock Market Today: Dow Firm, Moderna Eyes Entry Amid Virus Pop; Intel Gain Reaches 260% (Live Coverage)

  26. May 11, 12:20 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Advanced Micro Devices and Other Growth Stocks Are Flying High. History Says Hold on to Them.

  27. May 11, 12:15 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    FuelCell Energy Surges 18%, Plug Power Climbs 13%, Bloom Energy Rallies 12% as Fuel Cell Stocks Ignite

  28. May 11, 12:15 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Stock Market Today, May 11: Chipmakers Drive Midday Gains Despite Oil Concerns

  29. May 11, 12:13 PMNVDAvia finnhub

    Strong Demand Boosts Nvidia Rival Cerebras Ahead of Its IPO

  30. May 11, 12:11 PMNFLXvia finnhub

    Texas sues Netflix over data collection; shares edge lower

Macro & geopolitical context

High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe or asset class.

  1. May 12, 12:40 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Stock market rallies despite U.S.-Iran conflict entering third month.

  2. May 12, 12:21 PMpolicy · severity 4/5

    US Appeals court temporarily pauses ruling against Trump's proposed 10% tariffs.

  3. May 12, 11:39 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Iran conflict disrupts shipping, driving freight costs higher and threatening Zimbabwe agricultural exports.

  4. May 12, 9:33 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Bitcoin volatility spikes as US CPI hits multiyear highs from oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.

  5. May 12, 9:00 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    North Korea-linked hackers stole $2.06B in 2025 crypto thefts using advanced infiltration tactics.

  6. May 12, 8:38 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Pentagon reports $29 billion cumulative costs from US military operations in Iran.

  7. May 12, 8:20 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran conflict creates economic and political risks during Trump's China diplomatic engagement.

  8. May 12, 5:42 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Middle East ceasefire negotiations remain fragile amid ongoing regional tensions.

  9. May 12, 4:40 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Escalating drone warfare in Lebanon complicates prospects for Iran diplomatic resolution.

  10. May 12, 4:28 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran lawmaker warns of weapons-grade uranium enrichment if military attack occurs.

  11. May 11, 11:25 PMpolicy · severity 3/5

    U.S. Senate Banking Committee unveils Clarity Act for cryptocurrency regulatory framework.

  12. May 11, 9:55 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Indian rupee faces depreciation pressure from potential US-Iran conflict escalation.

  13. May 11, 9:08 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Trump heads to China seeking diplomatic and political wins after Iran tensions.

  14. May 11, 6:37 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    UAE secretly conducting attacks on Iran, escalating Middle East military tensions.

  15. May 11, 1:10 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    CN Railway files comments with STB on amended UP-NS merger application completeness.

Closed trades (0)

Every position this agent has closed, win or lose.

No closed trades yet.

Recent runs

Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.

  1. May 12, 1:09 PM5 pressure candidate(s), 0 opened, 5 skipped. Exits: 0.
  2. May 12, 11:06 AM5 pressure candidate(s), 0 opened, 5 skipped. Exits: 0.
  3. May 12, 11:04 AM5 pressure candidate(s), 1 opened, 4 skipped. Exits: 0.
  4. May 12, 10:25 AM7 pressure candidate(s), 0 opened, 7 skipped. Exits: 0.
  5. May 12, 10:25 AM7 pressure candidate(s), 0 opened, 7 skipped. Exits: 0.
  6. May 11, 11:55 PM7 pressure candidate(s), 0 opened, 7 skipped. Exits: 0.
  7. May 11, 5:39 PM7 pressure candidate(s), 0 opened, 7 skipped. Exits: 0.
  8. May 11, 5:38 PM7 pressure candidate(s), 0 opened, 7 skipped. Exits: 0.
  9. May 11, 3:13 PM7 pressure candidate(s), 0 opened, 7 skipped. Exits: 0.
  10. May 11, 3:09 PM7 pressure candidate(s), 1 opened, 6 skipped. Exits: 0.
  11. May 11, 2:04 PM7 pressure candidate(s), 3 opened, 4 skipped. Exits: 0.