No. I · Vol. I
Thursday, May 14, 2026

The Ledger

A paper-trading practice in the tradition of weekly Sunday charts.

Portfolio
$1,102,186
+$2,186 (+0.20%)
Markets
DIA-0.16%IWM+0.04%QQQ+1.02%SPY+0.56%VXX+1.84%IEF+0.01%GLD-0.57%USO-1.55%UUP+0.22%DIA-0.16%IWM+0.04%QQQ+1.02%SPY+0.56%VXX+1.84%IEF+0.01%GLD-0.57%USO-1.55%UUP+0.22%
Wires·
Standing by — markets watched, no fresh items.

Agent X — Inverse Rotator

Connecting…

Mechanical macro-bearish hedge using SH, SQQQ, and VXX on momentum triggers

Market: HEDGE · Started with $100,000

Equity
$100,000
Cash
$100,000
Positions
$0
none currently
Total P/L
+$0
+0.00%
Closed Trades
0
none yet
Realized P/L
+$0
Win Rate

How this agent thinks

Plain English. Skip the jargon, read this first.

Sits in cash by default and rotates into inverse + volatility ETFs when their own momentum turns positive. Universe is just three tickers: SH (inverse S&P 500), SQQQ (3x inverse Nasdaq), and VXX (volatility futures). The rule: if any of those three is up 2%+ over the last 5 days AND trading above its 20-day average, buy it with 33% of equity. Hold while momentum stays positive; sell when it reverses or hits a -15% stop. No discretion, no LLM, no opinions — just a mechanical hedge that turns on when broad markets weaken. Designed to be quiet during bull runs (mostly cash) and to wake up when stress arrives.

Methodology

The rules as a quant trader would describe them.

Mechanical macro-bearish hedge. Holds cash; rotates into inverse + volatility ETFs on rising momentum.

  • Universe: SH (1x inverse SPY), SQQQ (3x inverse Nasdaq), VXX (vol futures).
  • Entry: 5-day return ≥ +2% AND close above 20-day MA. Each position sized at 33% of NAV.
  • Exit: 5-day return turns negative, OR -15% hard stop from entry.
  • Max 3 concurrent positions (one of each). When no triggers, sits 100% in cash.
  • Pure mechanical — no LLM call, no discretion. Frozen rules.

Universe: SH, SQQQ, VXX (inverse + volatility ETFs) · Capital: $100,000

Currently held (0)

Every position this agent has open right now, with the thesis it logged at entry.

No open positions.

Recent decisions — acted

Entries, exits, rotations the agent committed to.

No recent acted decisions.

Recently considered — skipped

Candidates the agent looked at and chose not to act on. The rationale tells you what it weighed.

  1. May 12, 5:01 PMSHscan

    Not triggered: 5d return -1.83%, MA20 $34.48, close $33.59

  2. May 12, 5:01 PMSQQQscan

    Not triggered: 5d return -10.85%, MA20 $51.59, close $43.32

  3. May 12, 5:01 PMVXXscan

    Not triggered: 5d return -3.05%, MA20 $28.81, close $27.84

  4. May 12, 1:09 PMSHscan

    Not triggered: 5d return -1.43%, MA20 $34.49, close $33.73

  5. May 12, 1:09 PMSQQQscan

    Not triggered: 5d return -8.59%, MA20 $51.65, close $44.41

  6. May 12, 1:09 PMVXXscan

    Not triggered: 5d return -1.43%, MA20 $28.83, close $28.30

Watching (0)

Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.

Nothing on the watchlist right now.

Relevant news

Recent headlines on the tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.

No recent news on this agent's tickers.

Macro & geopolitical context

High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe or asset class.

  1. May 13, 11:43 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Crypto markets drop on Xi's Taiwan warning; Bitcoin falls below $80,000.

  2. May 13, 9:53 PMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Japan considers supplementary budget for household fuel relief, pressuring JGB yields.

  3. May 13, 9:15 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Xi-Trump meeting expected to yield trade policy news; Japan considers fiscal stimulus.

  4. May 13, 8:32 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Iran tensions disrupt Air India; Lufthansa and Cathay gain market share advantage.

  5. May 13, 6:49 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Trump and Xi negotiate trade truce amid Iran conflict tensions.

  6. May 13, 6:09 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    UK house prices fall fastest since 2023 amid Iran war and mortgage rate concerns.

  7. May 13, 4:25 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Rubio seeks Chinese leverage against Iran over Persian Gulf tensions.

  8. May 13, 2:52 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Drone strike targets Iranian opposition camp near Erbil, Iraq.

  9. May 13, 2:11 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Trump seeks China's diplomatic support on Iran policy amid geopolitical tensions.

  10. May 13, 1:39 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    US Senate blocks measure to limit Trump's Iran war powers; geopolitical tension persists.

  11. May 13, 12:36 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Netanyahu meets UAE president during Iran conflict, raising Middle East tensions.

  12. May 13, 10:54 AMpolicy · severity 4/5

    Treasury yields surge on hotter-than-expected producer price inflation data.

  13. May 13, 10:22 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Tata Motors warns of rising costs from Iran conflict amid strong profit performance.

  14. May 13, 10:01 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Clarity Act amendments would reshape crypto regulation with uncertain legislative prospects.

  15. May 13, 7:30 AMpolicy · severity 4/5

    US PPI significantly exceeds expectations, signaling persistent inflation pressures.

Closed trades (0)

Every position this agent has closed, win or lose.

No closed trades yet.

Recent runs

Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.

  1. May 12, 5:01 PMInverse rotator: 0 closes, 0 entries, 0 held after.
  2. May 12, 1:09 PMInverse rotator: 0 closes, 0 entries, 0 held after.