Wires·
Standing by — next sweep in ~15 min.
Markets
Dow+0.14%Russell 2000-0.31%Nasdaq-1.20%S&P 500-0.38%VXX+2.29%IEF-0.19%GLD+0.16%SLV-2.19%USO-0.33%UUP+0.27%Dow+0.14%Russell 2000-0.31%Nasdaq-1.20%S&P 500-0.38%VXX+2.29%IEF-0.19%GLD+0.16%SLV-2.19%USO-0.33%UUP+0.27%
No. I · Vol. I
Sunday, November 15, 2026

Agent 22 — Intraday Bear

BEAR
OFF-HOURS

Continuous short-side reflex. Hybrid: a mechanical weakness screen (SPY/QQQ down >=0.75% intraday) hands candidates to Claude, which judges whether the decline continues through the session. Buys the inverse ETF (SH/PSQ) at ~1% NAV per position, max 2 concurrent, stop -1.5% / target +3% on the ETF, force-closed by 3:45 PM ET. Never holds overnight. Frozen v1.

CUMULATIVE GAIN · 2026-06-01 → 2026-11-15 (live)−$528+$27+$581+$1KBreak-even · $0+$864Jun 1Jul 22Sep 25Nov 15
INTRADAY BEAR
$100,864
+$864 (+0.86%)
since inception · on $100,000 allotted
Back to homeConnecting…
Today
Δ Equity
-$0.00
Δ %
-0.00%
Decisions
0
0 acted
Closed today
0

Scorecard

Capital deployed
0%
0d avg hold

Open Positions

(0)

Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.

No open positions.

Closed Positions

(61)

Every position this agent has closed, win or lose. Click any to see why it was opened and closed.

TickerSideInOutHold$ P/L% P/L

Prompt performance

Closed-position stats broken out by the prompt version that authored each buy.

PromptTradesW / L / SWin rateAvg P/L %Total P/LAvg holdWindow
unknown6135 / 26 / 057.4%+0.19%+$8640dJun 5, 2026 → Nov 13, 2026

Recent activity

(24)

What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.

  1. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:55 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  2. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:50 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  3. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:45 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  4. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:40 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  5. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:35 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  6. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:30 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  7. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:25 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  8. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:20 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  9. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:15 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  10. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:10 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  11. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:05 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  12. EOD CLOSENov 13, 3:01 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  13. EOD CLOSENov 13, 2:55 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  14. EOD CLOSENov 13, 2:50 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  15. ACTEDNov 13, 2:45 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 1 position(s).

  16. SHSKIPNov 13, 12:20 PM

    A -0.76% intraday decline in SPY is modest in magnitude and does not yet constitute a high-conviction breakdown — it sits in the range of routine intraday noise rather than a tape that is clearly in distribution. The macro backdrop (T10Y2Y at 2.0σ below its 24-month trend, i.e. a flatter/more inverted curve) is a slow-burn headwind, not an acute intraday catalyst; without a fresh negative headline or accelerating breadth deterioration to fuel a continuation, the move looks more like a drift than a cascade. With no broad-market confirmation data and the move already -0.76% off the open, mean-reversion risk into the close is elevated. Risks: A surprise dovish headline (Fed speaker, cooling inflation data, or geopolitical de-escalation) could spark a sharp afternoon squeeze, invalidating any short thesis. Additionally, if the -0.76% move has already exhausted intraday sellers, low-volume drift in the final hours could see passive buyers absorb supply and push SPY back toward flat.

  17. SHSKIPNov 13, 12:16 PM

    A -0.78% intraday decline on SPY is modest in magnitude and does not yet constitute a high-conviction breakdown — it falls short of the velocity and breadth typically needed to sustain a directional flush into the close. The macro backdrop adds nuance but not urgency: the T10Y2Y spread printing 2.0σ below its 24-month trend reflects a flattening/near-inversion regime that tends to pressure banks and cyclicals, but this is a slow-burn structural signal rather than an acute intraday catalyst. Without a fresh news-driven shock, a sharp gap in breadth, or a decisive break below key technical levels, the tape character here looks more consistent with a garden-variety pullback that is vulnerable to a mean-reversion bounce late in the session. Risks: A deteriorating macro headline (e.g., hot inflation print, credit event, or Fed speaker hawkishness) or a sudden breadth collapse across indices could accelerate the decline and invalidate the flat stance. Conversely, if the yield curve flattening triggers a visible bank-sector selloff that spreads to broader risk-off flows, the -0.78% dip could deepen materially into the close.

  18. SHSKIPNov 13, 12:11 PM

    A -0.78% intraday decline in SPY is modest in magnitude and does not on its own signal a high-conviction breakdown — it falls well within normal daily volatility noise and lacks the breadth destruction or sharp acceleration typically associated with sessions that flush hard into the close. The macro catalyst (T10Y2Y at 2.0σ below its 24-month trend) reflects a bear-flattening/near-inversion regime, which can pressure banks but actually tends to bid defensives and act as a mild tailwind for equities via rate-cut narrative — this blunts rather than amplifies the bearish impulse. Without a fresh hard catalyst (earnings shock, geopolitical headline, or Fed surprise) driving the selloff, a move of this size more often represents intraday repositioning that exhausts itself before the close. Risks: A surprise hawkish Fed speaker, deteriorating credit spread widening, or a break below a key technical support level (e.g., SPY's 50-day MA) could reinvigorate sellers and push continuation probability above the threshold. Conversely, any risk-on headline — dovish commentary, a strong macro data print, or short-covering into the close — would validate staying flat and punish a premature SH entry.

  19. SHSKIPNov 13, 12:06 PM

    A -0.80% SPY decline is a modest, not impulsive, intraday move — not the kind of velocity or breadth expansion that signals a true breakdown with follow-through. The macro backdrop (T10Y2Y at 2.0σ below its 24-month trend) reflects a bear-flattening yield curve, which pressures Banks but historically provides a bid to Defensives, limiting broad index downside. Without a clear, fresh catalyst driving aggressive selling, this tape reads more like a low-conviction drift lower that is susceptible to an afternoon mean-reversion bounce rather than a sustained flush into the close. Risks: A surprise hawkish headline (Fed speaker, hot inflation data) or a deterioration in breadth (advancing/declining issues widening sharply negative) could accelerate selling and invalidate a bounce read. Any sudden risk-off shock — geopolitical or credit-related — could turn this modest decline into a genuine continuation move.

  20. SHSKIPNov 13, 11:26 AM

    The -0.81% decline in SPY is a moderate but not decisive breakdown — it lacks the kind of sharp, accelerating character typically associated with high-conviction continuation moves. The macro catalyst (T10Y2Y at 0.24, 2.0σ below 24-month trend) reflects a bear-flattening/near-inversion signal that pressures banks but historically can trigger defensive rotation and dip-buying into the close rather than sustained selling. Without a fresh negative catalyst or confirmed breadth deterioration across indices, the move reads more like an orderly profit-take or rate-driven sector rotation than a trending flush. Risks: A surprise hawkish Fed headline, a hot inflation data point, or a confirmed break below key SPY technical support levels could reignite selling and invalidate the bounce thesis. Additionally, if bank sector weakness (driven by the yield curve signal) spreads broadly to financials and drags overall breadth, the decline could gain momentum into the close.

  21. SHSKIPNov 13, 11:20 AM

    A -0.81% decline in SPY is meaningful but not decisive — it sits in the range of routine intraday noise rather than a confirmed breakdown with momentum. The macro backdrop adds nuance but not urgency: the T10Y2Y spread at 2.0σ below its 24-month trend signals bear-flattening pressure on banks and a defensive rotation, which is consistent with mild softness, but that dynamic has likely been partially priced into this morning's tape already. Without a fresh catalyst (earnings shock, Fed headline, geopolitical event) driving the move, the character of the decline looks more like a drift than a cascade, raising the odds of a mean-reversion bounce into the close. Risks: A deteriorating headline — surprise Fed commentary, a macro data miss, or a large-cap earnings warning — could add fuel and push continuation probability well above the threshold. Additionally, if breadth deteriorates sharply (advance/decline ratio collapses, new lows expanding) in the next 30-60 minutes, the flush could accelerate rather than recover.

  22. SHSKIPNov 13, 11:15 AM

    The -0.79% decline in SPY is modest and lacks the velocity or catalyst profile that typically drives intraday continuation into the close. The T10Y2Y at 0.24 — 2.0σ below its 24-month trend — signals a flattening/inversion pressure that historically compresses bank margins and spooks risk appetite, but this is a slow-burn macro factor rather than an acute intraday catalyst. Without a fresh negative headline, a confirmed breadth breakdown, or a momentum flush through key technical support, a move of this size is more likely to attract dip-buyers into the close than to cascade further. Risks: A surprise hawkish Fed headline, a hot CPI revision, or a sudden deterioration in breadth (advance/decline line rolling over hard) could validate the downside and push SPY through support. Conversely, if yield curve flattening accelerates sharply intraday, bank sector selling could broaden the selloff and invalidate the bounce thesis.

  23. SHSKIPNov 13, 11:05 AM

    At -0.95% on the session, SPY's decline is meaningful but sits in a gray zone — not deep enough to signal a true breakdown, yet not trivially small. The macro catalyst (T10Y2Y at 0.24, a 2.0σ bear-flattening signal) is a slow-burn structural headwind for banks and risk assets, but bear-flattening alone rarely sustains sharp intraday selling without a fresh catalyst to pile on. With no broad market breadth data confirming sector-wide capitulation, the character of this move looks more like a grinding drift than an accelerating flush, raising the probability of a late-session mean-reversion bid. Risks: A surprise hawkish Fed headline, a hot CPI revision, or a credit-market dislocation tied to the inverted curve could re-ignite selling and push SPY materially lower into the close. Conversely, any dovish repricing or short-covering in financials could snap the tape sharply higher, punishing a long SH position.

  24. SHSKIPNov 13, 11:00 AM

    A -0.93% SPY decline is meaningful but not decisively impulsive — it sits in the range where intraday moves frequently exhaust and reverse rather than accelerate. The macro catalyst (T10Y2Y at 0.24, 2.0σ below 24-month trend) reflects a bear-flattening yield curve that pressures banks but simultaneously signals risk-off defensives could bid, limiting SPY's downside extension. Without a confirmed breadth washout or fresh negative catalyst driving continuation, the character of the move looks more like a soft flush than a trending breakdown. Risks: A surprise hawkish Fed headline, a hot inflation print, or a fresh credit/geopolitical shock could re-accelerate the selloff and invalidate the bounce thesis. Additionally, if breadth deteriorates sharply (e.g., NYSE declining issues swamp advancers >4:1) into the afternoon, the move could gain trending legs toward the close.

Watching

(0)

Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.

Nothing on the watchlist right now.

Relevant news

(6)

Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.

Macro & geopolitical context

(15)

High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.

  1. Nov 14, 5:29 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Israeli military strikes senior Hamas commander in ongoing Middle East conflict.

  2. Nov 14, 9:00 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Central banks test cross-border FX settlement using stablecoins amid crypto adoption.

  3. Nov 13, 6:22 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Trump plans to discuss nuclear-arms cuts with Putin and Xi on Thursday.

  4. Nov 13, 4:02 PMpolicy · severity 4/5

    October PPI misses expectations; Fed hawkish concerns ease amid softer inflation data.

  5. Nov 13, 9:34 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed's Goolsbee debate energy's contribution to inflation dynamics.

  6. Nov 13, 7:30 AMpolicy · severity 4/5

    US October PPI comes in slightly below expectations at 6.5%, signaling modest inflation moderation.

  7. Nov 13, 7:26 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    FTC plans lawsuit to block $3.5B Covetrus-MWI merger.

  8. Nov 13, 4:00 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Eurozone Q3 GDP confirmed at 0.4% q/q, reinforcing moderate growth outlook amid uneven regional performance.

  9. Nov 13, 3:27 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    DOJ seizes $1.2B from Binance hack, disrupts FaceStealer cryptocurrency scam operation.

  10. Nov 13, 3:25 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    IAEA expresses growing concerns about Iranian nuclear enrichment activities.

  11. Nov 13, 2:00 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Spain inflation remains elevated at 4.9%, supporting ECB rate hike expectations.

  12. Nov 13, 1:00 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran reports tanker explosion in Hormuz Strait after mine strike, escalating regional tensions.

  13. Nov 12, 10:52 PMpolicy · severity 4/5

    US bond market volatility resurges amid higher-for-longer interest rate expectations.

  14. Nov 12, 8:51 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran's Guards claim attack on US early-warning radar in Bahrain, escalating regional tensions.

  15. Nov 12, 7:58 PMpolicy · severity 4/5

    Dollar hits 19-month high on Fed rate hike expectations; yen approaches 160 level.

Recent runs

(20)

Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.

  1. Nov 13, 3:55 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  2. Nov 13, 3:50 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  3. Nov 13, 3:45 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  4. Nov 13, 3:40 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  5. Nov 13, 3:35 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  6. Nov 13, 3:30 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  7. Nov 13, 3:25 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  8. Nov 13, 3:20 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  9. Nov 13, 3:15 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  10. Nov 13, 3:10 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  11. Nov 13, 3:05 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  12. Nov 13, 3:01 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  13. Nov 13, 2:55 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  14. Nov 13, 2:50 PMEOD flatten: 0 closed.
  15. Nov 13, 2:45 PMEOD flatten: 1 closed.
  16. Nov 13, 2:40 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  17. Nov 13, 2:35 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  18. Nov 13, 2:30 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  19. Nov 13, 2:25 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  20. Nov 13, 2:20 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.