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Markets
Dow+0.90%Russell 2000-0.62%Nasdaq+2.37%S&P 500+1.59%VXX-3.97%IEF-0.05%GLD-1.20%SLV-1.09%USO+1.92%UUP-0.28%Dow+0.90%Russell 2000-0.62%Nasdaq+2.37%S&P 500+1.59%VXX-3.97%IEF-0.05%GLD-1.20%SLV-1.09%USO+1.92%UUP-0.28%
No. I · Vol. I
Monday, June 29, 2026

Agent 22 — Intraday Bear

BEAR
HEALTHY

Continuous short-side reflex. Hybrid: a mechanical weakness screen (SPY/QQQ down >=0.75% intraday) hands candidates to Claude, which judges whether the decline continues through the session. Buys the inverse ETF (SH/PSQ) at ~1% NAV per position, max 2 concurrent, stop -1.5% / target +3% on the ETF, force-closed by 3:45 PM ET. Never holds overnight. Frozen v1.

CUMULATIVE GAIN · 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-29 (live)−$412−$249−$87+$76Break-even · $0−$378Jun 1Jun 10Jun 20Jun 29
INTRADAY BEAR
$99,622
-$378 (-0.38%)
since inception · on $100,000 allotted
Back to homeConnecting…
Today
Δ Equity
-$0.00
Δ %
-0.00%
Decisions
7
0 acted
Closed today
0

Scorecard

Capital deployed
0%
0d avg hold

Open Positions

(0)

Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.

No open positions.

Closed Positions

(17)

Every position this agent has closed, win or lose. Click any to see why it was opened and closed.

TickerSideInOutHold$ P/L% P/L

Prompt performance

Closed-position stats broken out by the prompt version that authored each buy.

PromptTradesW / L / SWin rateAvg P/L %Total P/LAvg holdWindow
unknown179 / 8 / 052.9%-0.06%-$3780dJun 5, 2026 → Jun 24, 2026

Recent activity

(24)

What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.

  1. PSQSKIPJun 29, 8:30 AM

    The -1.38% decline in QQQ is moderate but the macro backdrop actually argues against continuation: the 10-year inflation breakeven (T10YIE) printed 2.2 — sitting 2.1 standard deviations *below* its 24-month trend. Deeply suppressed inflation expectations are a tailwind for long-duration growth/tech (QQQ's core constituents), meaning the macro underpinning does not support sustained selling pressure. This looks more like an intraday flush into a disinflationary backdrop that long-duration buyers will defend, rather than a catalyst-driven breakdown with follow-through. Risks: A hawkish surprise — such as a Fed speaker pushing back on rate-cut timing or a hot inflation print — could validate the selloff and push QQQ lower into the close. Additionally, if breadth deteriorates sharply (e.g., advance/decline ratio collapses across Nasdaq) in the next 30 minutes, the flush could accelerate rather than reverse.

  2. PSQSKIPJun 29, 8:25 AM

    The -1.38% decline in QQQ is moderate but the macro backdrop is actually a headwind for the bear case: the 10-year breakeven inflation (T10YIE) printing at 2.2 — fully 2.1σ below its 24-month trend — signals collapsing inflation expectations, which is a tailwind for long-duration assets like growth/tech (QQQ's core). A deeply depressed breakeven typically triggers a relief bid in rate-sensitive sectors, not a sustained flush. Without a clear negative catalyst driving today's selling, this move looks more like an overextended intraday flush into month-end rebalancing than the start of a durable leg down. Risks: A negative late-session macro headline (e.g. a hawkish Fed speaker, weak economic data print, or geopolitical shock) could override the dovish breakeven signal and extend the decline. Additionally, if QQQ breaks a key technical support level on high volume in the afternoon, momentum sellers could accelerate the move regardless of the macro backdrop.

  3. PSQSKIPJun 29, 8:20 AM

    The -1.38% move in QQQ is a moderate intraday decline, but the macro backdrop actually argues against continuation: the 10-year inflation breakeven (T10YIE) is printing at 2.2 — fully 2.1 standard deviations *below* its 24-month trend. Deeply compressed inflation expectations are a latent tailwind for long-duration growth assets like QQQ, as they imply the market is pricing in disinflation/rate-cut optionality. This makes a sustained flush through the close less probable — the macro underpinning for tech/growth remains supportive and dip-buyers in rate-sensitive growth names are likely to emerge intraday. Without a clear bearish catalyst (earnings shock, hawkish Fed surprise, credit event) to justify follow-through, the move reads more like a technical shakeout than a catalyst-driven breakdown. Risks: A surprise hawkish headline (e.g., Fed speaker pushing back on rate cuts, a hot inflation print revision) or a sudden deterioration in breadth across NDX components could accelerate selling and invalidate the bounce thesis. Additionally, if end-of-quarter (June 29 is Q2 close) rebalancing flows are net sellers of equities into the close, the decline could extend rather than mean-revert.

  4. PSQSKIPJun 29, 8:15 AM

    The -1.38% QQQ decline is a moderate intraday move, but the macro backdrop actually argues against continuation: the 10-year breakeven inflation (T10YIE) printing at 2.2 — a full 2.1σ *below* the 24-month trend — signals a significant deflationary/growth-scare signal that has likely already been partially priced into today's move. Long-duration sensitive sectors (tech-heavy QQQ) typically see an initial flush on such a read, but the overshoot in real rates/inflation expectations tends to attract dip buyers into the close as the "lower-for-longer" narrative re-emerges. The character of the move looks more like a sentiment-driven flush than a catalyst with fresh legs, raising the odds of mean reversion rather than continuation. Risks: A deteriorating breadth print or a surprise hawkish headline (e.g., Fed speaker pushing back on dovish rate expectations) could re-accelerate selling and invalidate the bounce thesis. Additionally, if QQQ fails to reclaim its intraday VWAP in the next 30-60 minutes, momentum sellers could extend the decline toward the -2% range.

  5. PSQSKIPJun 29, 8:10 AM

    The -1.38% QQQ decline is moderate but lacks a clear hawkish catalyst — the macro backdrop is actually disinflationary, with T10YIE printing 2.2, a full 2.1σ below its 24-month trend. That kind of compressed inflation expectations reading typically acts as a tailwind for long-duration / growth tech names, meaning the fundamental backdrop does NOT support sustained selling pressure on QQQ. A move of this size without a strong macro driver behind it has the profile of an intraday flush rather than a momentum breakdown. Risks: A deterioration in breadth into the afternoon (e.g., NYSE new lows expanding, VIX spiking above 20) or a surprise risk-off headline could extend the selloff and invalidate the bounce thesis. Additionally, if QQQ fails to reclaim key intraday VWAP by mid-session, continuation selling could accelerate into the close.

  6. PSQSKIPJun 29, 8:05 AM

    The -1.38% decline in QQQ is moderate in size but the macro backdrop actually argues against sustained selling pressure: the 10-year inflation breakeven (T10YIE) printing at 2.2 — a full 2.1σ *below* its 24-month trend — is a disinflationary/dovish signal that benefits long-duration growth and tech (QQQ's core). A deflationary surprise of that magnitude historically acts as a tailwind for rate-sensitive growth names, suggesting the tape is more likely to find buyers on this dip than to cascade further. Without an identifiable bearish catalyst (earnings shock, hawkish Fed surprise, geopolitical flare), this reads more like an intraday flush into a macro environment that is fundamentally supportive of QQQ. Risks: A sudden risk-off macro headline (credit event, geopolitical escalation) or a broad liquidity-driven selloff in equities could override the disinflationary tailwind and push QQQ to new session lows. Additionally, if month-end rebalancing flows (June 29 is the last trading day of Q2) favor selling equities into the close, the bounce thesis could be delayed or invalidated.

  7. PSQSKIPJun 29, 8:00 AM

    The -1.38% intraday decline in QQQ is a meaningful but not dominant move, and critically, the macro backdrop works against further selling: the 10-year inflation breakeven (T10YIE) printing at 2.2 — a full 2.1σ *below* its 24-month trend — signals that real-money bond markets are pricing in disinflationary conditions, which is historically a tailwind for long-duration growth/tech names that dominate QQQ. A deeply below-trend inflation expectation reduces the rate-hike fear premium and tends to attract dip buyers into Nasdaq-heavy names into the close. Without a fresh bearish catalyst to sustain momentum, this move reads more like a fear-driven flush into a macro environment that actually favors QQQ longs. Risks: A surprise hawkish headline (Fed speaker, sticky inflation datapoint, or geopolitical shock) late in the session could override the disinflationary backdrop and push QQQ lower into the close. Additionally, if broad market breadth deteriorates sharply from current levels or the -1.38% loss accelerates past -2%, the flush could become a genuine breakdown rather than a mean-reversion setup.

  8. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:55 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  9. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:50 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  10. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:45 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  11. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:40 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  12. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:35 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  13. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:30 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  14. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:25 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  15. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:20 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  16. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:15 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  17. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:10 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  18. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:05 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  19. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 4:00 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  20. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 3:55 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  21. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 3:50 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  22. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 3:45 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  23. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 3:40 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

  24. EOD CLOSEJun 26, 3:35 PM

    Past 3:45 PM ET. Flattening 0 position(s).

Watching

(0)

Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.

Nothing on the watchlist right now.

Relevant news

(2)

Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.

  1. Jun 29, 3:59 AMSHvia finnhub

    S&P 500 Declines As Overinflated AI Stocks Lose Some Air

  2. Jun 22, 3:11 AMSHvia finnhub

    S&P 500 Gains As AI And Rate Hikes Take Center Stage For Investors

Macro & geopolitical context

(15)

High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.

  1. Jun 29, 10:27 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Kalshi traders predict upcoming jobs report will miss Wall Street consensus expectations.

  2. Jun 29, 7:40 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    U.S. envoys Kushner and Witkoff to meet Iran in Doha negotiations.

  3. Jun 29, 6:24 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    US-Iran de-escalation channels established ahead of diplomatic talks.

  4. Jun 29, 5:01 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    EU's MiCA deadline threatens unlicensed crypto firms with regulatory wipeout.

  5. Jun 29, 1:03 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Bitcoin declines to $59,700 as Iran tensions ease, benefiting equities over crypto.

  6. Jun 29, 12:31 AMpolicy · severity 4/5

    BIS warns AI investment surge poses systemic financial risk via leveraged debt structures.

  7. Jun 29, 12:02 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Iranian cyberattacks on Israel escalated in 2026, raising regional security concerns.

  8. Jun 28, 9:48 PMpolicy · severity 4/5

    BOJ aligns monetary policy with Japanese government's economic growth targets.

  9. Jun 28, 9:22 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    China blacklists 20 Japanese entities in dual-use export restrictions; normal trade unaffected.

  10. Jun 28, 8:40 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    US-Iran tensions ease temporarily; oil rallies while equities remain choppy.

  11. Jun 28, 8:31 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Iran tensions and Fed rate outlook impact Indian rupee and bond markets.

  12. Jun 28, 3:36 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Israel destroys Hezbollah underground infrastructure in southern Lebanon amid escalating conflict.

  13. Jun 28, 2:53 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran cancels technical talks participation following recent military attacks in region.

  14. Jun 28, 1:58 PMpolicy · severity 3/5

    BIS warns stablecoins risk fragmenting global financial system, urges central bank digital currency development.

  15. Jun 28, 11:05 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    EU Banking Authority proposes crypto fines up to 12.5% of annual revenue under landmark laws.

Recent runs

(20)

Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.

  1. Jun 29, 1:20 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  2. Jun 29, 1:15 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  3. Jun 29, 1:10 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  4. Jun 29, 1:05 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  5. Jun 29, 1:00 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  6. Jun 29, 12:55 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  7. Jun 29, 12:50 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  8. Jun 29, 12:45 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  9. Jun 29, 12:40 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  10. Jun 29, 12:35 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  11. Jun 29, 12:30 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  12. Jun 29, 12:25 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  13. Jun 29, 12:20 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  14. Jun 29, 12:15 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  15. Jun 29, 12:11 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  16. Jun 29, 12:06 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  17. Jun 29, 12:00 PMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  18. Jun 29, 11:55 AMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  19. Jun 29, 11:50 AMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
  20. Jun 29, 11:45 AMIntraday bear: 0 bought, 0 skipped, 0 failed. 0 exits.
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