No. I · Vol. I
Tuesday, May 12, 2026

The Ledger

A paper-trading practice in the tradition of weekly Sunday charts.

Portfolio
$997,470
-$2,530 (-0.25%)
Markets
DIA-0.01%IWM-1.59%QQQ-1.73%SPY-0.61%VXX-0.60%IEF-0.33%GLD-1.21%USO+3.72%UUP+0.48%DIA-0.01%IWM-1.59%QQQ-1.73%SPY-0.61%VXX-0.60%IEF-0.33%GLD-1.21%USO+3.72%UUP+0.48%
Wires·
Standing by — markets watched, no fresh items.

Agent III — Gold/Silver Ratio

Connecting…

Mean-reversion between GLD and SLV

Market: METALS · Started with $100,000

Equity
$99,060
Cash
$297
Positions
$98,763
1 open
Total P/L
-$940
−0.94%
Closed Trades
0
none yet
Realized P/L
+$0
Win Rate
—

How this agent thinks

Plain English. Skip the jargon, read this first.

Trades only two things: GLD (the gold ETF) and SLV (the silver ETF). It watches the ratio of gold's price to silver's price — historically that ratio has hovered around 65, swinging up to 80 or down to 50 over years. When the ratio gets high (gold expensive relative to silver), it sells gold and buys silver, betting the ratio will swing back. When the ratio gets low, it does the reverse. No news, no fundamentals, no stops, no time pressure — just a single number that the agent watches and reacts to. Mean reversion at its purest.

Methodology

The rules as a quant trader would describe them.

Rotates between gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) based on the gold-to-silver price ratio.

  • When the ratio rises above 80, silver is relatively undervalued vs. gold — rotates to SLV.
  • When the ratio falls below 50, gold is relatively undervalued vs. silver — rotates to GLD.
  • In the 50-80 band, the agent holds whatever it currently has. From cash, it picks the side closer to the long-run midpoint (~65).
  • Pure mean-reversion trade. No stops, no news, no fundamentals — just the ratio.

Universe: GLD, SLV (ETFs only, not spot or futures) · Capital: $100,000

Currently held (1)

Every position this agent has open right now, with the thesis it logged at entry.

  • GLDlongopened May 10, 2026-$940
    230 sh @ $433.49 · current $429.41 · stop —

    Ratio 56.01 < 50, target gold

Recent decisions — acted

Entries, exits, rotations the agent committed to.

  1. May 11, 12:32 PMrotate

    Ratio 56.01 is below 50. Rotating from CASH to GLD (230 shares @ $433.49).

Recently considered — skipped

Candidates the agent looked at and chose not to act on. The rationale tells you what it weighed.

  1. May 12, 1:09 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.85 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  2. May 12, 11:06 AMconsidered

    Ratio 56.12 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  3. May 12, 11:04 AMconsidered

    Ratio 56.14 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  4. May 12, 10:25 AMconsidered

    Ratio 55.73 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  5. May 12, 10:25 AMconsidered

    Ratio 55.73 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  6. May 11, 11:54 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.73 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  7. May 11, 5:38 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.73 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  8. May 11, 5:38 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.73 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  9. May 11, 3:13 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.73 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  10. May 11, 3:08 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.73 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  11. May 11, 2:03 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.87 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  12. May 11, 2:01 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.85 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  13. May 11, 1:35 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.87 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  14. May 11, 1:32 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.83 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

  15. May 11, 1:31 PMconsidered

    Ratio 55.87 is inside [50, 80]; holding GLD.

Watching (0)

Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.

Nothing on the watchlist right now.

Relevant news

Recent headlines on the tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.

No recent news on this agent's tickers.

Macro & geopolitical context

High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe or asset class.

  1. May 12, 12:40 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Stock market rallies despite U.S.-Iran conflict entering third month.

  2. May 12, 12:21 PMpolicy · severity 4/5

    US Appeals court temporarily pauses ruling against Trump's proposed 10% tariffs.

  3. May 12, 11:39 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Iran conflict disrupts shipping, driving freight costs higher and threatening Zimbabwe agricultural exports.

  4. May 12, 9:33 AMpolicy · severity 3/5

    Bitcoin volatility spikes as US CPI hits multiyear highs from oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.

  5. May 12, 9:00 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    North Korea-linked hackers stole $2.06B in 2025 crypto thefts using advanced infiltration tactics.

  6. May 12, 8:38 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Pentagon reports $29 billion cumulative costs from US military operations in Iran.

  7. May 12, 8:20 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran conflict creates economic and political risks during Trump's China diplomatic engagement.

  8. May 12, 5:42 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Middle East ceasefire negotiations remain fragile amid ongoing regional tensions.

  9. May 12, 4:40 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Escalating drone warfare in Lebanon complicates prospects for Iran diplomatic resolution.

  10. May 12, 4:28 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5

    Iran lawmaker warns of weapons-grade uranium enrichment if military attack occurs.

  11. May 11, 11:25 PMpolicy · severity 3/5

    U.S. Senate Banking Committee unveils Clarity Act for cryptocurrency regulatory framework.

  12. May 11, 9:55 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Indian rupee faces depreciation pressure from potential US-Iran conflict escalation.

  13. May 11, 9:08 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Trump heads to China seeking diplomatic and political wins after Iran tensions.

  14. May 11, 8:48 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5

    Hormuz Strait tensions drive oil decline and metal price gains in China imports.

    Tickers:XOMCVXGLDSLV
  15. May 11, 8:17 PMmarket · severity 3/5

    Gold declines as fading Middle East peace hopes boost dollar and oil prices.

    Tickers:GLDSLV

Closed trades (0)

Every position this agent has closed, win or lose.

No closed trades yet.

Recent runs

Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.

  1. May 12, 1:09 PMRatio 55.85, in-band. Holding GLD.
  2. May 12, 11:06 AMRatio 56.12, in-band. Holding GLD.
  3. May 12, 11:04 AMRatio 56.14, in-band. Holding GLD.
  4. May 12, 10:25 AMRatio 55.73, in-band. Holding GLD.
  5. May 12, 10:25 AMRatio 55.73, in-band. Holding GLD.
  6. May 11, 11:54 PMRatio 55.73, in-band. Holding GLD.
  7. May 11, 5:38 PMRatio 55.73, in-band. Holding GLD.
  8. May 11, 5:38 PMRatio 55.73, in-band. Holding GLD.
  9. May 11, 3:13 PMRatio 55.73, in-band. Holding GLD.
  10. May 11, 3:08 PMRatio 55.73, in-band. Holding GLD.
  11. May 11, 2:03 PMRatio 55.87, in-band. Holding GLD.
  12. May 11, 2:01 PMRatio 55.85, in-band. Holding GLD.
  13. May 11, 1:35 PMRatio 55.87, in-band. Holding GLD.
  14. May 11, 1:32 PMRatio 55.83, in-band. Holding GLD.
  15. May 11, 1:31 PMRatio 55.87, in-band. Holding GLD.
  16. May 11, 1:09 PMRatio 55.91, in-band. Holding GLD.
  17. May 11, 12:55 PMRatio 56.03, in-band. Holding GLD.
  18. May 11, 12:34 PMRatio 56.02, in-band. Holding GLD.
  19. May 11, 12:32 PMRatio 56.01 → rotate CASH → GLD (230 sh @ $433.49).
  20. May 11, 12:31 PMRatio 56.02, in-band. Holding CASH.
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