Scorecard
Head to head
Evolving prompt vs. frozen baseline
Open Positions
(56)Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.
Open Positions
(56)Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.
- 148 sh × $9.20 ($1,361 cost)$9.43$1,396+$34.78+2.56%
- 41 sh × $28.53 ($1,170 cost)$29.54$1,211+$41.20+3.52%
- 5 sh × $193.70 ($969 cost)$190.88$954−$14.10−1.46%
- 3 sh × $359.11 ($1,077 cost)$352.96$1,059−$18.45−1.71%
- 3 sh × $250.03 ($750 cost)$254.08$762+$12.15+1.62%
- 9 sh × $176.57 ($1,589 cost)$197.34$1,776+$186.91+11.76%
- 3 sh × $568.29 ($1,705 cost)$602.10$1,806+$101.44+5.95%
- 40 sh × $40.20 ($1,608 cost)$38.75$1,550−$58.20−3.62%
- 76 sh × $20.29 ($1,542 cost)$19.48$1,480−$61.18−3.97%
- 4 sh × $255.16 ($1,021 cost)$264.88$1,060+$38.86+3.81%
- 24 sh × $82.94 ($1,990 cost)$89.33$2,144+$153.44+7.71%
- 2 sh × $400.16 ($800 cost)$418.12$836+$35.92+4.49%
- 28 sh × $47.42 ($1,328 cost)$49.44$1,384+$56.70+4.27%
- 4 sh × $281.99 ($1,128 cost)$292.51$1,170+$42.06+3.73%
- 5 sh × $283.01 ($1,415 cost)$295.81$1,479+$64.02+4.52%
- 20 sh × $57.50 ($1,150 cost)$59.26$1,185+$35.20+3.06%
- 3 sh × $426.70 ($1,280 cost)$534.15$1,602+$322.36+25.18%
- 31 sh × $55.71 ($1,727 cost)$59.66$1,849+$122.56+7.10%
- 3 sh × $384.00 ($1,152 cost)$414.55$1,244+$91.65+7.96%
- 3 sh × $368.83 ($1,106 cost)$379.78$1,139+$32.85+2.97%
- 13 sh × $96.27 ($1,252 cost)$94.12$1,224−$27.95−2.23%
- 9 sh × $127.08 ($1,144 cost)$134.46$1,210+$66.47+5.81%
- 69 sh × $26.71 ($1,843 cost)$26.08$1,800−$43.70−2.37%
- 85 sh × $11.69 ($994 cost)$11.92$1,013+$19.13+1.92%
- 3 sh × $301.57 ($905 cost)$331.73$995+$90.46+10.00%
- 37 sh × $47.88 ($1,772 cost)$46.97$1,738−$33.83−1.91%
- 43 sh × $46.89 ($2,016 cost)$49.98$2,149+$133.03+6.60%
- 9 sh × $124.54 ($1,121 cost)$124.03$1,116−$4.59−0.41%
- 43 sh × $58.55 ($2,517 cost)$63.43$2,727+$209.83+8.33%
- 2 sh × $449.80 ($900 cost)$484.20$968+$68.80+7.65%
- 6 sh × $247.62 ($1,486 cost)$243.03$1,458−$27.54−1.85%
- 24 sh × $63.41 ($1,522 cost)$68.44$1,643+$120.80+7.94%
- 190 sh × $13.60 ($2,584 cost)$14.73$2,798+$213.26+8.25%
- 8 sh × $97.81 ($782 cost)$111.75$894+$111.52+14.25%
- 124 sh × $21.96 ($2,723 cost)$30.40$3,770+$1,046.94+38.45%
- 4 sh × $309.48 ($1,238 cost)$320.60$1,282+$44.47+3.59%
- 18 sh × $127.08 ($2,288 cost)$139.70$2,515+$227.10+9.93%
- 1 sh × $502.88 ($503 cost)$519.67$520+$16.79+3.34%
- 4 sh × $178.05 ($712 cost)$205.69$823+$110.55+15.52%
- 3 sh × $232.01 ($696 cost)$281.14$843+$147.38+21.17%
- 49 sh × $43.54 ($2,134 cost)$43.84$2,148+$14.48+0.68%
- 4 sh × $195.82 ($783 cost)$227.71$911+$127.55+16.28%
- 4 sh × $308.23 ($1,233 cost)$348.72$1,395+$161.93+13.13%
- 3 sh × $249.93 ($750 cost)$278.68$836+$86.26+11.50%
- 25 sh × $81.74 ($2,043 cost)$86.25$2,156+$112.83+5.52%
- 10 sh × $152.34 ($1,523 cost)$168.35$1,684+$160.13+10.51%
- 1 sh × $170.14 ($170 cost)$178.46$178+$8.32+4.89%
- 1 sh × $524.54 ($525 cost)$704.29$704+$179.75+34.27%
- 1 sh × $54.83 ($55 cost)$58.86$59+$4.03+7.36%
- 13 sh × $130.84 ($1,701 cost)$134.36$1,747+$45.71+2.69%
- 2 sh × $347.27 ($695 cost)$386.19$772+$77.83+11.21%
- 4 sh × $276.24 ($1,105 cost)$309.64$1,239+$133.61+12.09%
- 2 sh × $112.96 ($226 cost)$113.78$228+$1.64+0.73%
- 1 sh × $68.60 ($69 cost)$77.44$77+$8.84+12.89%
- 57 sh × $42.07 ($2,398 cost)$44.94$2,562+$163.59+6.82%
- 10 sh × $228.48 ($2,285 cost)$264.85$2,649+$363.66+15.92%
Closed Positions
(421)Every position this agent has closed, win or lose. Click any to see why it was opened and closed.
Closed Positions
(421)Every position this agent has closed, win or lose. Click any to see why it was opened and closed.
How this agent thinks
Plain English. Skip the jargon, read this first.
Identical to Agent IV at day 0 — same trigger (S&P 500 stock down 10% from 30-day high), same evidence packet, same sizing, same three exits (recover-to-30-day-high target, -8% stop, 90-day time stop). The difference is that the question it asks Claude can change. Each week the agent looks at which dip-buys worked and which didn't, then proposes refinements to the prompt to ask better questions next time. v3 methodology adds two more layers: (1) pyramiding — at +10% unrealized, the agent buys 50% more of a winning position; (2) re-entry — if the agent has previously stopped out of a name and the price has since recovered above the original entry, Claude is told about it explicitly and can choose to reconsider. The match-up vs Agent IV isolates the effect of evolution; the match-up vs Agent VIII isolates the effect of peer awareness.
Universe: S&P 500 starter set (same as Agent IV) · Capital: $100,000
Prompt performance
Closed-position stats broken out by the prompt version that authored each buy.
| Prompt | Trades | W / L / S | Win rate | Avg P/L % | Total P/L | Avg hold | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v2 | 99 | 93 / 6 / 0 | 93.9% | +9.99% | +$2,734 | 48.4d | May 15, 2026 → Aug 24, 2026 |
| v5 | 202 | 127 / 73 / 2 | 63.5% | +5.33% | +$9,750 | 35.1d | May 18, 2026 → Nov 13, 2026 |
| v6 | 3 | 2 / 1 / 0 | 66.7% | +2.62% | +$185 | 62.3d | May 26, 2026 → Aug 26, 2026 |
| v7 | 22 | 7 / 15 / 0 | 31.8% | -0.79% | -$1,967 | 30.3d | Jun 1, 2026 → Aug 31, 2026 |
| v7+rec14+rec11+rec7 | 95 | 29 / 66 / 0 | 30.5% | +0.18% | -$1,121 | 33.9d | Jul 28, 2026 → Nov 9, 2026 |
Recent activity
(24)What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.
Recent activity
(24)What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.
SEE (Sealed Air) is down 34.3% from its 30-day high to $2.88, an extreme move that far exceeds typical sector-level noise. However, the evidence base is almost entirely empty: no news headlines, no recent SEC filings, no insider activity, no options flow, and no macro brief — leaving the cause of the drop completely unidentifiable. With no data to distinguish a recoverable dip from fundamental impairment, the magnitude of the drop (34%) at an already very low absolute price level raises serious concern about single-stock deterioration. The Materials sector ranks 7th of 11 by 30-day relative strength and shows negative 5-day flow, offering no sector tailwind. Macro conditions are mildly adverse (10Y at 4.98%, VIX at 69th percentile), adding further headwind.
PARA is trading at $0.10, down 98.9% from its 30-day high of $8.93 — a catastrophic collapse that is almost certainly not a dip but rather a near-total value destruction event. A drop of this magnitude (from ~$8.93 to $0.10) in 30 days without any recoverable SEC filings, news headlines, insider buying, or options flow is a profound red flag. The complete absence of any data signals (no 10-K/10-Q/8-K, no news, no Form 4s, no options flow) means we cannot rule out a fundamental catastrophe such as bankruptcy, delisting, fraud, or going-concern impairment. The stock's price at $0.10 is consistent with a company that has effectively ceased to function as a viable public entity. The Communication Services sector is already the weakest in the market (rank 10 of 11 by 30d rel-strength), and macro conditions are adverse (10Y at 4.98%, VIX at 69th percentile).
AVB is down 64.2% from its 30-day high — an extraordinarily large move for a large-cap REIT that cannot be attributed to normal sector/macro noise without a clear explanation, yet no news headlines, no 10-Q filings, and only blank 8-Ks with no metrics are available, making it impossible to rule out fundamental deterioration (e.g., spin-off, special distribution, or severe impairment). The options flow shows a bearish P/C ratio of 1.38, earnings are 39 days away (a meaningful headwind), the Real Estate sector ranks 9 of 11 by 30-day relative strength and is underperforming SPY by over 4 points in 30 days, and macro conditions are adverse — the 10Y yield is at 5.01% (a structural headwind for REITs), and the 5Y forward inflation rate is running 1.8σ above trend. No insider buying and no positive options signals provide any offsetting confidence.
A hard veto is triggered by imminent earnings in 13 days (2026-11-26), and none of the three required override conditions are met — there is no insider cluster buy, no unusual call flow, and the fundamental picture is opaque (8-K filings carry no metrics). The 48.7% drop from the 30-day high is extreme and unexplained given the absence of news or SEC filing detail, suggesting a potentially idiosyncratic event. Sector context is the weakest in the IT space (ranked 11 of 11 by 30-day relative strength) with significant underperformance vs. SPY (-11.25pts over 30 days), and the 10Y yield at 4.98% is a structural headwind for a growth-sensitive semiconductor name like MRVL.
FMC has fallen 45.9% from its 30-day high to $5.04 — a severe, potentially idiosyncratic decline with no news headlines or SEC filings to contextualize the cause, which is itself a red flag (no explanatory catalyst visible suggests possible unreported deterioration). Signal scoring yields a poor net result: the drop magnitude earns +1 (mean-reversion candidate at >=15%), and there is no imminent earnings event (+1, next earnings 81 days out). However, negatives dominate: options flow shows elevated put volume (z=+1.73) with a P/C ratio of 1.40, indicating bearish informed positioning (-1); only a single insider purchase of ~$14K — well below the cluster threshold and a trivially small amount relative to the collapse (-0, not a cluster buy); the 10Y yield at 4.98% is a structural headwind for the Materials sector (-1); VIX at 69th percentile is approaching elevated territory (-0, below 75th); and critically, the Materials sector is ranked 7/11 by relative strength but showed negative intraday flow, with the sector's 5-day performance -3.29pts vs SPY suggesting recent weakness. The absence of any news, filings, or macro brief leaves the cause of a near-50% drop completely unexplained, which is deeply concerning and suggests possible fundamental impairment not yet documented in filings.
TER has fallen 44.5% from its 30-day high — an unusually large drop that would normally be a strong mean-reversion candidate. However, the evidence base is extremely thin: no news headlines, no meaningful metrics in the 10-Q or 8-K filings, no insider activity, no options flow, and no macro brief. With next earnings 80 days away (a clean runway) and IT sector underperforming (sector-wide dip, +1), the structural setup offers some positives. That said, the magnitude of the drop (44.5%) without any identifiable catalyst is deeply concerning — such a move almost always reflects fundamental impairment or a major idiosyncratic event rather than sector noise. The 10Y at 4.98% is a meaningful headwind for a growth-sensitive semiconductor test equipment name (-1), VIX at the 69th percentile is elevated (-1), and the IT sector ranks last (11 of 11) by 30-day relative strength with significant sector underperformance (-11.25pts vs SPY over 30 days) suggesting systemic stress. The drop magnitude qualifies as a signal (+1) and no near-term earnings is positive (+1), but the absence of any supporting evidence (no insider buys, no call flow, no fundamental data) means the net signal score is low (~+1 to 0 net), and the sheer size of the decline strongly implies undisclosed fundamental deterioration.
A hard veto is triggered by imminent earnings in 10 days (2026-11-23), and none of the three override conditions are met simultaneously: there is no insider cluster buy (zero Form 4 activity), call flow is modestly elevated (z=1.00) but not unusually so, and the fundamental picture is unclear given sparse SEC filing metrics and no news. The 42.9% drop from the 30-day high is severe and would otherwise be a strong mean-reversion candidate, but the binary earnings event makes the near-term risk structurally unacceptable for a swing trade entry. DELL also ranks last (11 of 11) in its sector on 30-day relative strength, underperforming XLK by 11.25pts, adding to concern that the drop may reflect idiosyncratic deterioration rather than pure sector noise.
SMCI is down 42.3% from its 30-day high — a severe single-stock drop that is not explained by available news, but the SEC filings (10-Q and two 8-Ks) carry no disclosed metrics, making it impossible to rule out fundamental deterioration (guidance cut, going-concern, or accounting issues — SMCI has a history of the latter). The insider activity shows only routine option exercises and tax-withholding ("F") transactions, not meaningful open-market purchases; there is no cluster buy signal. The sector (XLK) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength and is underperforming SPY by -11.25pts over 30 days, suggesting sector headwinds compound the idiosyncratic drop. Macro conditions are adverse: 10Y at 4.98% (above the 4.5% headwind threshold) and VIX at the 69th percentile, both negative signals. With empty metrics in the 10-Q and no news to explain the 42% plunge, the most prudent interpretation is unresolved fundamental risk (consistent with SMCI's prior accounting controversies), which triggers a soft veto on soundness.
STX has dropped 42.4% from its 30-day high — an unusually severe decline — but the evidence base is almost entirely empty: no news headlines, no meaningful SEC filing metrics, no insider activity, no options flow, and no macro brief. The 10-Q and 8-K filings provide no financial metrics to assess fundamental health, making it impossible to confirm the company is sound. The sector (XLK) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength with -11.25pts vs. SPY, suggesting broad sector pressure, but the extreme magnitude of STX's drop relative to sector peers hints at a potentially idiosyncratic issue. With the 10Y at 4.98% (a structural headwind for tech/cyclical names), VIX at the 69th percentile, and no confirming positive signals whatsoever, the net signal score is deeply negative.
DDOG is down 38.1% from its 30-day high — a dramatic move — but no fundamental impairment is evident from the recent 10-Q/8-K filings (metrics are sparse but no going-concern, guidance cut, or fraud language is flagged). Signal scoring is weak: the sector (XLK) is the worst-performing sector over 30 days (rank 11/11, -11.28pts vs SPY), which provides a partial sector-wide explanation for the drop (+1), and the drop magnitude ≥15% without confirmed fundamental cause adds a mean-reversion signal (+1). However, options flow is unexciting — call z-score is negative (-0.72) and put z-score is also negative but more suppressed (-1.82), yielding a neutral-to-mildly-bearish read. No insider buying is present (0). Net positive signals: +2; negative signals: elevated VIX at 80th percentile (-1), 10Y yield at 4.88% — a meaningful headwind for a long-duration growth name like DDOG (-1), and sector flow proxy is deeply negative (-19.9M) suggesting continued selling pressure (-1). Net score: +2 - 3 = -1, which falls below the buy threshold. Despite no hard veto, the combination of a negative net signal score, absence of insider conviction, negative options z-scores, elevated rates, and a 38% drop that may reflect genuine re-rating of growth multiples argues against a buy.
LRCX is down 36.4% from its 30-day high — a dramatic move for a high-quality semiconductor equipment name — but the signal stack is weak. The SEC filings contain no metrics, so there is no visible fundamental deterioration, and the insider activity shows routine director equity awards with only trivial sales (16 shares). However, the sector (XLK) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength and is down 11.25pts vs. SPY over 30 days, suggesting broad sector pressure rather than a single-stock idiosyncratic event (+1). The drop magnitude >=15% without confirmed fundamental cause is a mild positive (+1), and earnings are 74 days away giving a clean runway (+1). Against these, the 10Y at 4.98% is a meaningful headwind for a growth/duration-sensitive semi equipment name (-1), VIX at 69th percentile is near but below the 75th threshold (neutral), there is no insider cluster buy, no unusual call flow, and the negative options flow proxy is large (-1 for sector freefall tone). Net score lands at approximately +1, which under the framework is marginal and does not meet the bar without a cluster buy or unusual call flow as the lead signal.
FFIV is down 36.7% from its 30-day high with no visible fundamental catalyst (no recent 10-Q/8-K/headlines flagging deterioration), suggesting the drop may be sector/macro-driven and mean-reversion is plausible. Options flow is bullish — call volume is elevated (z=0.54) with put volume notably suppressed (z=-1.52), yielding a P/C ratio of 0.40, a constructive signal. However, the sector ranks dead last (11/11) in 30-day relative strength with significant underperformance vs. SPY (-11.25pts), and the macro backdrop is a headwind: 10Y yield at 4.98% is a structural drag on a tech/duration-sensitive name, and VIX at the 69th percentile adds uncertainty. Net signal score: +1 (drop magnitude ≥15%) +1 (unusual call lean/low put volume) +1 (sector underperformance, not idiosyncratic) +1 (no earnings within 30 days) −1 (high 10Y yield) −1 (sector in sustained freefall, bottom-ranked) = net +2, but conviction is tempered by the extreme drop magnitude suggesting possible unknown catalyst and macro headwinds.
NOW (ServiceNow) is down 36.9% from its 30-day high with no visible fundamental catalyst — no adverse filings, no guidance cuts, and no insider selling. However, the evidence stack is extremely thin: no news, no SEC filings, no insider activity, and no options flow data to draw upon. The sector (XLK) is ranked dead last (11/11) by 30-day relative strength with significant underperformance vs. SPY (-10.49pts over 30 days), which partially supports a sector-wide dip narrative rather than single-stock impairment. Against this, macro conditions are notably adverse: VIX at the 80th percentile (-1), 10Y yield at 4.86% well above the 4.5% threshold (-1), and broad market selling pressure today across equities. Net signal score: sector underperformance (+1), large drop without known fundamental cause (+1), no imminent earnings (+1), elevated VIX (-1), high 10Y yield (-1), macro context elevated DFF (-1) = net 0, a marginal outcome with no strong positive catalyst to override.
FTNT is down 35% from its 30-day high with no visible fundamental catalyst (no recent filings, no headlines, no insider activity), suggesting the drop may be sector/macro-driven rather than idiosyncratic. However, the signal stack is weak: no insider cluster buys, no unusual call volume (put/call ratio of 1.36 leans bearish with slightly elevated put volume), and FTNT ranks dead last (11/11) in 30d relative strength within the already weak IT sector. Sector flow is deeply negative (-$20M proxy), and the macro environment is unfavorable with VIX at the 80th percentile, 10Y at 4.88% (a structural headwind for growth/duration-sensitive cybersecurity names), and IT underperforming SPY by 11.28pts over 30 days.
HPE is down 35% from its 30-day high, a large drop that would normally signal a strong mean-reversion candidate. However, earnings are 19 days away (within the 15-30 day window), which applies a meaningful headwind penalty and prevents a clean rebound runway. Options flow is modestly bullish (P/C ratio 0.65, call volume exceeds put volume) but neither call nor put z-scores indicate unusual/informed activity. The sector (XLK) is the weakest performer in its universe (rank 11/11) with significant 30-day underperformance vs. SPY (-11.25pts), suggesting sector-wide pressure rather than pure idiosyncratic deterioration — a slight positive. No insider buying or fundamental impairment signals are present.
A hard veto fires immediately: earnings are imminent in 8 days (2026-11-19), and none of the three override conditions are met — there is no insider cluster buy (zero Form 4 activity), no unusual call flow (call z-score is -0.56, below average, with a bearish P/C ratio of 1.20), and the fundamental picture is opaque (the 8-K filed with no metrics). The sector is the weakest in XLK (rank 11/11) with severe 30-day underperformance (-11.28pts vs SPY), which does provide some sector-wide cover for the 21.5% drop, but this cannot override the veto. Macro headwinds are also present: VIX at the 80th percentile, 10Y at 4.88% — a structural headwind for a long-duration tech name like KEYS.
TEAM is down 36.6% from its 30-day high, a large drop that would normally qualify as a mean-reversion candidate. However, the evidence stack is thin and mostly negative: the sector (XLK) is ranked dead last (11/11) by 30-day relative strength with -10.49pts vs SPY, suggesting broad tech weakness but also that this may be a sector-drag trade rather than pure idiosyncratic impairment. No insider buying, no options flow data, and no news headlines leave the thesis without any confirming positive signals. The macro backdrop is adverse — VIX at the 80th percentile, 10Y at 4.86% (a structural headwind for a high-duration growth name like TEAM), and broad markets are under pressure today across equities. The 10-Q filed 2026-11-06 has empty metrics, providing no fundamental clarity. Net signal score: sector underperformance (+1), drop >=15% (+1), no earnings within 30 days (+1), elevated VIX (-1), high 10Y yield (-1), no insider/options confirmation (0), empty filing metrics reducing confidence (-1) = net +0, which is marginal, and with no strong confirming signal (no cluster buy, no unusual call flow), the framework calls for skipping.
WDC has dropped 34.9% from its 30-day high — a dramatic move — but the evidence stack is nearly empty: no news headlines, no insider buying, no options flow, and 10-Q/8-K filings with no disclosed metrics to assess fundamental health. The sector (XLK) ranks dead last (11 of 11) in 30-day relative strength and is underperforming SPY by 11.25pts over 30 days, suggesting sector-wide pressure but also severe single-stock weakness on top. Macro conditions are headwinds: 10Y at 4.98% (above the 4.5% threshold) is a structural drag for a growth/cyclical name like WDC, and while VIX at 18.70 is only at the 69th percentile (not a hard veto), it adds uncertainty. Earnings are 75 days away (clean runway), which is a mild positive, but the total signal score is weak: +1 (drop magnitude ≥15%, no fundamental cause confirmed) +1 (sector underperforming) +1 (no near-term earnings) −1 (10Y yield >4.5%) −1 (sector last-ranked with strongly negative flow proxy) = net +1, which is marginal. With no confirming insider or options signals required to act on a marginal score, and with the extreme 35% drop raising the possibility of undisclosed fundamental deterioration given empty filings metrics, conviction is insufficient to support a buy.
GLW is down 33.8% from its 30-day high, a large move that would normally be a strong mean-reversion candidate, but the evidence stack is thin and mixed. Positive signals include the magnitude of the drop (≥15%, +1), no earnings in the visible window (+1), and the sector underperforming the broader market on a 30-day basis (+1). However, negative signals are meaningful: the 10Y yield at 4.98% is a structural headwind for a capital-intensive industrial/tech name like Corning (-1), VIX at the 69th percentile is approaching elevated territory (-1), sector flow proxy is deeply negative today (-1), and options flow is essentially flat (P/C ~1.0, z-scores both near -1.0, indicating subdued and balanced volume — no unusual call interest to signal informed buying). Net signal score is approximately 0, which is marginal, and the lack of any insider activity, news, SEC filings, or meaningful call-side conviction means there is no strong anchor signal to override the marginal score. The 33.8% drop without any visible fundamental catalyst is concerning — it may reflect information not yet captured in this dataset.
A hard veto fires immediately: earnings are only 5 days away (2026-11-17), and the framework explicitly prohibits buying into an imminent binary event. The three conditions required to override the veto — insider cluster buy, unusual call flow, and clearly strong fundamentals — are not all present. The only insider activity is a single director gift (0-cost grant, not an open-market purchase), there is no options flow data at all, and no recent filings are available to confirm fundamental strength. The 32.7% drop is large and would normally be attractive for mean-reversion, but the near-term earnings print is the most likely catalyst for the entire move, making a 90-day rebound thesis structurally unsound at this entry. Additional macro headwinds compound the concern: VIX is at the 76th percentile, the 10Y yield is elevated at 4.88% (a structural drag on a long-duration growth name like NVDA), and broad market tone is risk-off today.
ILMN is down 33.3% from its 30-day high, a large drop that would ordinarily be a strong mean-reversion candidate. However, the signal stack is weak: no cluster insider buys (the insider activity is dominated by a large director sale of ~$2.5M by Keith Meister and routine tax-related F-transactions), options flow is modestly put-leaning (P/C ratio 1.11), and VIX is at the 76th percentile (elevated, -1). The sector (Health Care) is actually outperforming SPY strongly over 30 days (+12.56pts), making this a single-stock idiosyncratic drop rather than a sector-wide dip (-1). The 10Y yield at 4.88% is a structural headwind for a long-duration growth biotech name (-1). The 10-Q and 8-K filings lack disclosed metrics, so no fundamental deterioration is confirmed, but no positive catalyst is visible either.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] AMAT is down 33.7% from its 30-day high with no visible fundamental impairment — no guidance cuts, going-concern language, or fraud allegations in the recent 8-Ks (which carry no metrics). The drop magnitude alone (+1) and sector-wide underperformance (+1, ranked last in IT by 30d rel-strength, -11.25pts vs SPY) suggest this is a macro/sector-driven selloff rather than an idiosyncratic collapse, supporting mean-reversion. Unusual call volume (z=5.34, +1) is a meaningful informed-buying signal on a deeply dipping stock, and earnings are 89 days away — just within the 90-day window but not imminent (+1 clean runway). Offsetting these positives: elevated 10Y yield at 4.98% is a structural headwind for a capital-equipment growth name (-1), VIX at 69th percentile is below the 75th threshold (neutral), and no insider buying activity reduces conviction. Net signal score: approximately +3 before macro haircut, reduced modestly by rate environment.
CAT has dropped a severe 32.6% from its 30-day high, well above the 15% mean-reversion threshold, and there is no apparent fundamental impairment visible in the SEC filings (no guidance cut, covenant breach, or going-concern language). A director made a meaningful $620K insider purchase on Nov 2, options flow is modestly call-skewed (P/C 0.74, call z-score positive), and today's broad market tone is strongly risk-on (SPY +1.88%, QQQ +2.83%), which provides a near-term tailwind. However, the negative signals are significant: VIX at the 98th percentile is a serious macro risk-off signal, the 10Y yield at 4.84% is well above the 4.5% headwind threshold and is a real drag on a cyclical industrial, Michael Burry's widely-reported profitable put position adds sentiment overhang, ETFs are net sellers, and CAT ranks 9th of 11 in 30d relative sector strength indicating idiosyncratic underperformance. Earnings are 79 days away (clean runway), but the headwinds are substantial.
MU is down 30.1% from its 30-day high — a significant dip that would normally be a mean-reversion candidate (+1). However, earnings are 32 days away, creating an uncertainty premium headwind (-1), and the sector (XLK) is the worst-ranked in relative strength (rank 11/11, -11.25pts vs SPY over 30 days) suggesting broader sector pressure (+1 for sector-wide dip, not idiosyncratic). Against these modest positives, there are substantial headwinds: the 10Y yield at 4.98% is a meaningful structural headwind for a growth/duration-sensitive semiconductor name like MU (-1); VIX at the 69th percentile is approaching elevated territory (-0 by strict threshold but adds caution); there is no insider buying, no unusual call flow, no macro brief, and no news to explain or contextualize the drop. The near-complete absence of supporting signals — no cluster buys, no options flow, no macro clarity — leaves the thesis resting almost entirely on mean-reversion alone. Net signal score: approximately +1 (sector-wide dip +1, drop magnitude +1, earnings 15-30d -1, high 10Y -1), which is marginal and not supported by the required cluster buy or unusual call flow to trigger a buy at this level.
Watching
(0)Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Watching
(0)Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Nothing on the watchlist right now.
Relevant news
(30)Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
Relevant news
(30)Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
CVS Health study highlights GLP-1 benefits and the affordability challenge
Citi Expects Data Center Construction Growth to Continue Despite Rising Costs and Regulatory Delays
Is Credo Technology a Better AI Networking Buy Than Broadcom?
Home Depot vs. Walmart: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy for 2027?
Italy Fines Meta €805 Million. Why the Legal Route Matters More Than the Money
Dow Jones Futures Loom For Shaky Market Rally As Bitcoin Dives; Nvidia Earnings, Anthropic IPO Ahead
Why falling AI token prices aren’t the negative for AI providers one might assume
Why falling AI token prices aren’t the negative for AI providers one might assume
Meta (META) Faces $880 Million Italy Fine Over User Photo Access
Anthropic Just Delivered Great News for AMD Investors and Bad News for Nvidia
Micron, Amazon, and IBM: My 3 Favorite Stocks to Buy and Hold Through 2030
From Dodge to Anthropic: The Century-Old Playbook Taking Over Tech IPOs
Ameriprise Financial (AMP) Highlights Adviser Demand, Is The Stock Still Cheap?
Cisco Raised Its Earnings Outlook 8%. The Stock Fell 6% Anyway
Ameriprise Financial (AMP) Stock Still Looks Below Fair Value After Its 86% Run
US Air Travel Chaos to Persist Until Late Sunday After FAA Ground Stop, Agency Chief Warns: Report
US Air Travel Chaos to Persist Until Late Sunday After FAA Ground Stop, Agency Chief Warns: Report
Charter Communications (CHTR) Expands Enterprise Reach With Managed Secure Networking Launch
AMD Has Two Big Catalysts Lined Up For 2027 — And Nvidia Should Be Watching, Says IO Fund
Macro & geopolitical context
(15)High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.
Macro & geopolitical context
(15)High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.
- Nov 15, 9:26 AMmarket · severity 3/5
Nvidia and Anthropic expected to drive AI sector momentum in the week ahead.
Tickers:NVDA - Nov 15, 6:51 AMcompany · severity 3/5
Airlines face ongoing recovery from FAA-ordered ground stop disrupting operations.
- Nov 14, 10:25 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
Iran attacks US base; Bahrain issues threat alerts, raising Middle East tensions and oil market risks.
- Nov 14, 5:29 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Israeli military strikes senior Hamas commander in ongoing Middle East conflict.
- Nov 14, 12:48 PMcompany · severity 4/5
Nvidia leadership crisis impacts AI sector; S&P 500 gains 2.5% weekly despite tech turbulence.
Tickers:NVDA - Nov 14, 9:00 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Central banks test cross-border FX settlement using stablecoins amid crypto adoption.
- Nov 13, 6:22 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Trump plans to discuss nuclear-arms cuts with Putin and Xi on Thursday.
- Nov 13, 4:02 PMpolicy · severity 4/5
October PPI misses expectations; Fed hawkish concerns ease amid softer inflation data.
- Nov 13, 3:46 PMpolicy · severity 3/5
US extends 90-day shipping waiver to facilitate oil and commodity movement.
- Nov 13, 3:35 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
FAA grounds all US departing flights citing extraordinary safety circumstance.
- Nov 13, 12:11 PMmarket · severity 3/5
US consumer spending shows signs of weakness across eight key economic indicators.
- Nov 13, 10:22 AMmarket · severity 4/5
Nvidia earnings post-leadership change and Anthropic IPO drive critical macro signals.
Tickers:NVDA - Nov 13, 9:34 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed's Goolsbee debate energy's contribution to inflation dynamics.
- Nov 13, 7:30 AMpolicy · severity 4/5
US October PPI comes in slightly below expectations at 6.5%, signaling modest inflation moderation.
- Nov 13, 7:26 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
FTC plans lawsuit to block $3.5B Covetrus-MWI merger.
Recent runs
(20)Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
Recent runs
(20)Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
- Nov 13, 2:20 PM84 trigger(s) [83 cached, 1 Claude], 9 bought, 75 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 57 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Nov 13, 1:21 PM85 trigger(s) [84 cached, 1 Claude], 9 bought, 76 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 58 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Nov 13, 12:23 PM88 trigger(s) [60 cached, 28 Claude], 12 bought, 76 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 59 watch-listed. Exits: 1.
- Nov 13, 11:20 AMClosed by janitor — finished_at was NULL after 4163s.
- Nov 13, 10:25 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Nov 13, 10:10 AMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
- Nov 12, 1:36 PM86 trigger(s) [75 cached, 11 Claude], 7 bought, 79 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 60 watch-listed. Exits: 1.
- Nov 12, 12:20 PMClosed by janitor — finished_at was NULL after 4160s.
- Nov 12, 11:21 AMClosed by janitor — finished_at was NULL after 4122s.
- Nov 12, 9:20 AM87 trigger(s) [75 cached, 12 Claude], 7 bought, 80 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 59 watch-listed. Exits: 1.
- Nov 12, 8:20 AM81 trigger(s) [80 cached, 1 Claude], 7 bought, 74 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 55 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Nov 11, 1:20 PM83 trigger(s) [82 cached, 1 Claude], 8 bought, 75 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 55 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Nov 11, 12:20 PM83 trigger(s) [82 cached, 1 Claude], 8 bought, 75 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 56 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Nov 11, 11:20 AM85 trigger(s) [75 cached, 10 Claude], 9 bought, 76 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 56 watch-listed. Exits: 1.
- Nov 11, 9:21 AM86 trigger(s) [60 cached, 26 Claude], 9 bought, 77 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 57 watch-listed. Exits: 1.
- Nov 11, 8:21 AM89 trigger(s) [87 cached, 2 Claude], 6 bought, 83 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 66 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Nov 10, 1:20 PM91 trigger(s) [90 cached, 1 Claude], 6 bought, 85 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 67 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Nov 10, 12:20 PM95 trigger(s) [93 cached, 2 Claude], 6 bought, 89 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 71 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Nov 10, 11:20 AM95 trigger(s) [94 cached, 1 Claude], 7 bought, 88 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 70 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Nov 10, 10:20 AM94 trigger(s) [81 cached, 13 Claude], 7 bought, 87 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 69 watch-listed. Exits: 0.