Scorecard
Head to head
Evolving prompt vs. frozen baseline
Open Positions
(70)Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.
Open Positions
(70)Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.
- 2 sh × $506.51 ($1,013 cost)$507.59$1,015+$2.16+0.21%
- 5 sh × $344.71 ($1,724 cost)$346.25$1,731+$7.67+0.45%
- 2 sh × $53.05 ($106 cost)$53.08$106+$0.06+0.06%
- 3 sh × $314.16 ($942 cost)$316.31$949+$6.47+0.69%
- 9 sh × $126.90 ($1,142 cost)$126.15$1,135−$6.80−0.59%
- 2 sh × $335.77 ($672 cost)$339.72$679+$7.90+1.18%
- 3 sh × $269.09 ($807 cost)$282.27$847+$39.54+4.90%
- 1 sh × $55.23 ($55 cost)$56.74$57+$1.51+2.73%
- 2 sh × $112.96 ($226 cost)$113.54$227+$1.16+0.51%
- 50 sh × $23.77 ($1,188 cost)$22.63$1,132−$56.75−4.78%
- 7 sh × $213.36 ($1,494 cost)$222.93$1,561+$66.96+4.48%
- 9 sh × $217.08 ($1,954 cost)$233.10$2,098+$144.22+7.38%
- 19 sh × $72.87 ($1,385 cost)$72.05$1,369−$15.58−1.13%
- 6 sh × $265.70 ($1,594 cost)$257.00$1,542−$52.23−3.28%
- 2 sh × $518.30 ($1,037 cost)$493.92$988−$48.76−4.70%
- 13 sh × $104.63 ($1,360 cost)$109.52$1,424+$63.57+4.67%
- 1 sh × $22.31 ($22 cost)$21.51$22−$0.80−3.59%
- 3 sh × $440.97 ($1,323 cost)$428.41$1,285−$37.68−2.85%
- 6 sh × $344.39 ($2,066 cost)$336.31$2,018−$48.50−2.35%
- 10 sh × $122.17 ($1,222 cost)$118.61$1,186−$35.60−2.91%
- 87 sh × $15.38 ($1,338 cost)$14.86$1,292−$45.24−3.38%
- 1 sh × $43.81 ($44 cost)$42.36$42−$1.45−3.30%
- 1 sh × $72.80 ($73 cost)$69.14$69−$3.66−5.03%
- 1 sh × $23.90 ($24 cost)$23.25$23−$0.65−2.72%
- 1 sh × $24.74 ($25 cost)$24.31$24−$0.43−1.74%
- 1 sh × $68.60 ($69 cost)$70.56$71+$1.96+2.86%
- 2 sh × $409.38 ($819 cost)$394.79$790−$29.18−3.56%
- 5 sh × $263.15 ($1,316 cost)$247.82$1,239−$76.65−5.83%
- 4 sh × $312.11 ($1,248 cost)$319.52$1,278+$29.64+2.37%
- 22 sh × $60.04 ($1,321 cost)$57.12$1,257−$64.13−4.86%
- 16 sh × $82.30 ($1,317 cost)$81.01$1,296−$20.64−1.57%
- 18 sh × $93.05 ($1,675 cost)$95.90$1,726+$51.39+3.07%
- 2 sh × $574.59 ($1,149 cost)$541.39$1,083−$66.40−5.78%
- 6 sh × $259.61 ($1,558 cost)$265.36$1,592+$34.50+2.21%
- 38 sh × $40.64 ($1,544 cost)$39.59$1,504−$39.90−2.58%
- 4 sh × $305.60 ($1,222 cost)$303.72$1,215−$7.52−0.62%
- 4 sh × $570.36 ($2,281 cost)$665.81$2,663+$381.79+16.73%
- 31 sh × $37.33 ($1,157 cost)$37.03$1,148−$9.30−0.80%
- 19 sh × $92.36 ($1,755 cost)$98.63$1,874+$118.97+6.78%
- 13 sh × $144.73 ($1,881 cost)$145.84$1,896+$14.41+0.77%
- 28 sh × $47.57 ($1,332 cost)$44.53$1,247−$85.12−6.39%
- 1 sh × $799.50 ($800 cost)$817.61$818+$18.11+2.27%
- 32 sh × $41.58 ($1,331 cost)$40.78$1,305−$25.76−1.94%
- 10 sh × $111.89 ($1,119 cost)$108.60$1,086−$32.95−2.94%
- 7 sh × $220.87 ($1,546 cost)$227.13$1,590+$43.82+2.83%
- 8 sh × $180.32 ($1,443 cost)$170.52$1,364−$78.40−5.43%
- 124 sh × $10.95 ($1,357 cost)$10.36$1,285−$72.54−5.34%
- 18 sh × $71.82 ($1,293 cost)$72.48$1,305+$11.79+0.91%
- 16 sh × $150.13 ($2,402 cost)$145.29$2,325−$77.48−3.23%
- 4 sh × $145.33 ($581 cost)$145.84$583+$2.02+0.35%
- 1 sh × $4.50 ($5 cost)$4.14$4−$0.36−8.00%
- 1 sh × $69.30 ($69 cost)$70.73$71+$1.43+2.06%
- 12 sh × $164.19 ($1,970 cost)$181.58$2,179+$208.70+10.59%
- 1 sh × $892.70 ($893 cost)$929.73$930+$37.03+4.15%
- 1 sh × $268.68 ($269 cost)$250.90$251−$17.78−6.62%
- 3 sh × $108.60 ($326 cost)$120.50$362+$35.70+10.96%
- 16 sh × $110.78 ($1,772 cost)$106.64$1,706−$66.19−3.73%
- 6 sh × $445.80 ($2,675 cost)$497.02$2,982+$307.31+11.49%
- 1 sh × $782.64 ($783 cost)$787.30$787+$4.66+0.60%
- 6 sh × $144.71 ($868 cost)$145.16$871+$2.72+0.31%
- 28 sh × $78.33 ($2,193 cost)$72.25$2,023−$170.23−7.76%
- 55 sh × $33.20 ($1,826 cost)$34.85$1,917+$90.82+4.97%
- 24 sh × $74.13 ($1,779 cost)$74.50$1,788+$8.88+0.50%
- 5 sh × $198.33 ($992 cost)$213.88$1,069+$77.75+7.84%
- 1 sh × $164.66 ($165 cost)$178.18$178+$13.52+8.21%
- 12 sh × $213.56 ($2,563 cost)$208.47$2,502−$61.04−2.38%
- 7 sh × $217.35 ($1,521 cost)$249.49$1,746+$225.01+14.79%
- 10 sh × $14.18 ($142 cost)$13.89$139−$2.89−2.04%
- 3 sh × $30.22 ($91 cost)$28.81$86−$4.26−4.69%
- 3 sh × $237.62 ($713 cost)$234.44$703−$9.55−1.34%
Closed Positions
(282)Every position this agent has closed, win or lose. Click any to see why it was opened and closed.
Closed Positions
(282)Every position this agent has closed, win or lose. Click any to see why it was opened and closed.
How this agent thinks
Plain English. Skip the jargon, read this first.
Identical to Agent IV at day 0 — same trigger (S&P 500 stock down 10% from 30-day high), same evidence packet, same sizing, same three exits (recover-to-30-day-high target, -8% stop, 90-day time stop). The difference is that the question it asks Claude can change. Each week the agent looks at which dip-buys worked and which didn't, then proposes refinements to the prompt to ask better questions next time. v3 methodology adds two more layers: (1) pyramiding — at +10% unrealized, the agent buys 50% more of a winning position; (2) re-entry — if the agent has previously stopped out of a name and the price has since recovered above the original entry, Claude is told about it explicitly and can choose to reconsider. The match-up vs Agent IV isolates the effect of evolution; the match-up vs Agent VIII isolates the effect of peer awareness.
Universe: S&P 500 starter set (same as Agent IV) · Capital: $100,000
Prompt performance
Closed-position stats broken out by the prompt version that authored each buy.
| Prompt | Trades | W / L / S | Win rate | Avg P/L % | Total P/L | Avg hold | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v2 | 99 | 93 / 6 / 0 | 93.9% | +9.99% | +$2,734 | 48.4d | May 15, 2026 → Aug 24, 2026 |
| v5 | 117 | 82 / 33 / 2 | 71.3% | +7.95% | +$9,339 | 40.3d | May 18, 2026 → Sep 10, 2026 |
| v6 | 3 | 2 / 1 / 0 | 66.7% | +2.62% | +$185 | 62.3d | May 26, 2026 → Aug 26, 2026 |
| v7 | 22 | 7 / 15 / 0 | 31.8% | -0.79% | -$1,967 | 30.3d | Jun 1, 2026 → Aug 31, 2026 |
| v7+rec14+rec11+rec7 | 41 | 10 / 31 / 0 | 24.4% | -1.31% | -$1,364 | 18.3d | Jul 28, 2026 → Sep 14, 2026 |
Recent activity
(24)What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.
Recent activity
(24)What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.
DOC (Healthpeak Properties) is a REIT experiencing a sector-wide pullback — Real Estate ranks 10th of 11 sectors by 30-day relative strength, down 7.2pts vs. SPY over 30 days, suggesting the dip is macro/sector-driven rather than idiosyncratic. However, the options flow is a meaningful negative signal: put volume z-score of 2.76 is flagged as unusual on a dipping stock, indicating potential informed bearish positioning. Earnings are 37 days away (a headwind, not a veto), the 10Y yield at 4.95% is a structural drag for rate-sensitive REITs, and today's broad market tone is risk-off (VXX +2.05%, QQQ -1.09%). The drop is only 10% (below the +1 threshold of 15%), and there are no insider buys to anchor the thesis.
IR is down 18.1% from its 30-day high, meeting the mean-reversion threshold, and the extremely bullish options flow (P/C ratio of 0.11 — 2,246 calls vs. only 256 puts) is a strong positive signal of informed directional buying. However, the sector (Industrials, XLI) is ranked 10/11 by 30-day relative strength with negative flow proxy, providing no tailwind. The re-entry context is concerning: the stock was previously stopped out at $80.14 and has since declined to $75.18 — the current price is still below the stop-out level, and there is no identifiable new catalyst (no news, minimal 10-Q/8-K data available) to ground a fresh thesis beyond the call flow signal alone.
XYL (Xylem) is down 13.9% from its 30-day high with no apparent fundamental deterioration — the 10-Q and 8-K filings contain no reported metrics signaling guidance cuts or distress. However, the signal stack is weak: no insider buying, no options flow data, no news headlines to clarify the drop's cause, and earnings are 48 days away (a meaningful uncertainty headwind of -1). The Industrials sector is underperforming significantly (rank 9/11, -8.28pts vs SPY over 30 days), which is a modest positive (sector-wide, not idiosyncratic), but the drop hasn't reached the 15% threshold for a mean-reversion signal. The 10Y yield at 4.77% is a structural headwind for capital-goods industrials, and the 5-year forward inflation rate at 1.7σ above trend adds macro pressure.
PARA is trading at $0.99, down 50.6% from its 30-day high of $2.00 — a catastrophic single-stock collapse to near-penny-stock territory. The consensus EPS for the upcoming earnings (63 days away) is -$6.26, signaling severe fundamental deterioration and not a sector-wide dip. There is a complete absence of any supporting signals: no insider buying, no unusual call flow, no recent SEC filings to assess financial health, and the sector (XLC) is underperforming but not enough to explain a 50%+ drop. The macro environment is additionally unfavorable with 10Y yields at 4.80% (above the 4.5% headwind threshold) and a risk-off broad market tone today (SPY -0.59%, VXX +3.28%).
BURL has dropped 36.8% from its 30-day high — a substantial decline that would normally signal a strong mean-reversion candidate, but the evidence stack here is thin and mixed. Signal scoring: the large drop magnitude earns +1, no earnings within 30 days (next is 75 days out) earns +1, and the sector is modestly underperforming SPY (30d -0.79pts) earning +1. On the negative side, options flow shows a put/call ratio of 1.15 with put volume elevated relative to calls (call z-score 1.83 is somewhat unusual, but put volume exceeding call volume on a dipping stock is a mild negative, -1), the 10Y yield at 4.78% is well above 4.5% representing a structural headwind for consumer discretionary (-1), and critically there are no insider buys, no news headlines, and the SEC filings carry no financial metrics — leaving the fundamental picture opaque. Net score: approximately +1, which is marginal and below the +2 threshold for a confident buy. The 36.8% drop is severe enough to warrant concern that something fundamental drove it, yet no confirming positive catalysts exist.
The drop is clearly idiosyncratic and fundamental: COO missed Q3 revenue estimates due to destocking, failed to sell CooperSurgical at an attractive valuation (BofA), received multiple analyst downgrades with commentary citing "limited near-term appeal," and is heading toward a 52-week low. Options flow is decisively bearish with put volume at a z-score of 72.82 versus call z-score of 4.30, a P/C ratio of 1.59 — signaling informed institutional hedging/selling, not dip-buying. There are no insider purchases to suggest internal conviction in a recovery.
WHR is down 21.8% from its 30-day high, a magnitude that normally qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). However, earnings are 47 days away, which is a meaningful uncertainty headwind (-1). The single insider activity is a grant (Form 4 type "G" at $0 consideration), not an open-market purchase, so it provides no positive signal. The Consumer Discretionary sector is modestly underperforming SPY on both 5d and 30d bases (+1), suggesting some sector-wide pressure rather than a purely idiosyncratic drop. Against this, the 10Y yield at 4.78% is a structural headwind for a rate-sensitive, capital-intensive name like a home appliance manufacturer (-1), and the 5-year forward inflation rate is running 1.8σ above trend, adding macro uncertainty (-1). No options flow data or news headlines are available, leaving the thesis thin on confirming signals. Net signal score: approximately 0 to -1, below the threshold for a confident buy.
PCG has recovered from the prior stop-out level ($12.74) back to $14.21, but this recovery appears to be ungrounded in new evidence — there are no recent SEC filings, no insider buying, no options flow signals, and no news headlines to explain the move. The sector (Utilities/XLU) ranks dead last (11/11) in 30-day relative strength with -8.52pts vs SPY, signaling broad sector weakness rather than PCG-specific re-rating. The 10Y yield at 4.78% is a meaningful structural headwind for rate-sensitive utilities, and the 5Y forward inflation rate is printing 1.8σ above trend, further pressuring duration-sensitive names. With earnings 42 days away creating an uncertainty premium and no positive catalyst identifiable, re-entry here is not supported.
AAL is down 23.3% from its 30-day high, which is a significant drop that would normally be a mean-reversion candidate. However, earnings are 49 days away with a consensus EPS of -$0.24 (a loss), representing a meaningful headwind (-1). The sector (Industrials/XLI) is ranked 10 of 11 by 30-day relative strength and is underperforming SPY by 5.12pts over 30 days (+1 for sector-wide dip), but the negative sector flow proxy (-$21.9M today) reinforces weakness. Options flow shows put volume z-score of 1.63 vs. call z-score of only 0.36, indicating unusual put activity — a bearish informed signal (-1). The 10Y at 4.75% is a structural headwind for a capital-intensive, debt-heavy airline (-1). There are no insider buys to anchor confidence, and the 5-year inflation forward (T5YIFR) at 1.7σ above trend adds rate-sensitive pressure. Net signal score: +1 (sector underperformance) + 1 (drop >=15%) - 1 (unusual put volume) - 1 (high 10Y yield) - 1 (earnings in 15-30 day window, 49 days is outside but still a headwind) = approximately -1, which does not support a buy.
WDC has dropped 23.6% from its 30-day high — a meaningful dip that qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). The sector (IT/XLK) is actually outperforming SPY on both 5d and 30d bases, suggesting this is a more idiosyncratic or memory-subsector pullback rather than broad sector support (-1). Fundamentally, WDC appears sound with AI-driven HDD demand outpacing supply through 2027 and business visibility through 2028, and there is no evidence of guidance cuts, covenant breaches, or going-concern language. However, earnings are 44 days away, creating a meaningful uncertainty headwind (-1), and the 10Y yield at 4.95% is a structural headwind for this capital-intensive tech name (-1). Insider activity shows stock awards and tax withholding (F transactions), but no cluster of open-market buys, so no positive insider signal is triggered. No options flow data is available. Net signal score is approximately -1 to 0, placing this in the marginal/skip zone.
DECK has dropped 20.1% from its 30-day high — a meaningful dip that qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). The sector (Consumer Discretionary) is underperforming the market over both 5d and 30d, suggesting the drop is partially sector-wide rather than purely idiosyncratic (+1). However, no insider cluster buys are present — all Form 4 activity is tax-withholding forfeitures ("F" transactions at $0), not purchases (0). Options flow shows a put-heavy P/C ratio of 1.23 with slightly elevated put z-score, a mild negative signal (-1). Earnings are 49 days away, avoiding the imminent-earnings veto but still within the 15-30 day headwind window — actually 49 days is outside that range, so no earnings penalty (+1). The 10Y yield at 4.75% is above the 4.5% threshold, a structural headwind for consumer discretionary (-1). VIX at 16.34 is at the 30th percentile — benign, no penalty. Net signal score: +2, marginal buy territory, but the absence of any genuine insider buying and the put-skewed options flow temper conviction below the buy threshold.
The news flow is uniformly negative and stock-specific: BMO is bearish on athletic names, analysts note LULU is "struggling" with too much "surface area to defend," and one headline explicitly calls out a "bleak outlook" with potential for further downside. The sector (Consumer Discretionary) is only modestly underperforming SPY (-0.79pts over 30d), suggesting this is largely an idiosyncratic, single-stock problem rather than broad sector weakness that would support mean reversion. The 22.7% drop appears driven by genuine fundamental concern rather than macro noise, and the 10Y at 4.78% is a structural headwind for a growth/premium-priced consumer brand.
GNRC is down ~21% from its 30-day high, a meaningful drop that triggers mean-reversion consideration, and there is no evidence of fundamental deterioration in the recent 10-Q or 8-K filings (no guidance cut, going-concern language, or covenant breach noted). Options flow is modestly bullish with a P/C ratio of 0.51 and positive call z-score (+0.62) versus negative put z-score (-1.00), suggesting limited panic-selling pressure. However, the sector (Industrials/XLI) is ranked 9 of 11 by 30-day relative strength and is underperforming SPY by -6.42pts over 30 days, indicating this is partly a sector-wide drag rather than purely idiosyncratic. Against this, the macro backdrop is headwind-heavy: the 10Y yield is elevated at 4.95% (a structural headwind for capital-equipment names like GNRC), the yield curve signal is below trend, and today's broad-market tone is risk-off (SPY -0.59%, VXX +2.10%). Critically, earnings are 43 days away — not an immediate veto, but a meaningful uncertainty premium (-1 signal).
BLDR is down 23.2% from its 30-day high, a significant move that would normally be a strong mean-reversion candidate (+1). The drop appears sector-wide rather than idiosyncratic, as Industrials (XLI) is the worst-performing sector by 30-day relative strength and is down 8.77pts vs SPY (+1). However, earnings are 48 days away, creating a meaningful uncertainty headwind (-1), and options flow shows a bearish skew with P/C ratio of 1.40 and put volume elevated (-1). The 10Y at 4.80% is above the 4.5% threshold and is a structural headwind for a housing/building-materials name like BLDR (-1), and the forward inflation expectation (T5YIFR at 1.6σ above trend) adds rate-sensitive risk. No insider buying, no unusual call volume, and no fundamental filings with clear metrics prevent positive scoring. Net signal score is approximately -1, which does not support a buy.
MPWR is a high-quality semiconductor company (Monolithic Power Systems) with no evidence of fundamental deterioration in recent filings — no guidance cuts, going-concern language, or covenant issues. The drop of 20.5% from the 30-day high is significant and qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). However, the IT sector is actually outperforming the market (rank 2 of 11 by 30d relative strength, +3.75pts vs SPY over 30 days), meaning the drop is likely idiosyncratic to MPWR rather than sector-wide (-1). Earnings are 44 days away, which avoids a hard veto but still represents a meaningful uncertainty headwind (-1). The 10Y yield at 4.95% is a structural headwind for a high-multiple growth name like MPWR (-1). There are no insider cluster buys, no unusual options flow, and macro tone today is risk-off (SPY -0.59%, QQQ -1.14%, VXX +2.10%), further dampening near-term momentum. Net signal score: +1 (mean-reversion magnitude) -1 (idiosyncratic vs outperforming sector) -1 (earnings 15-30 day headwind zone not triggered but 44 days is close) -1 (high 10Y yield) = -2, which falls below the buy threshold.
PNR (Pentair) has dropped 15.3% from its 30-day high, which on its own is a meaningful mean-reversion signal. However, the evidence stack is thin: no insider buying, no options flow, no recent filings or news to confirm the drop is sector-wide noise rather than a stock-specific issue. The Industrials sector is the second-weakest by 30-day relative strength (rank 10 of 11) with -5.12pts vs SPY, suggesting the dip is at least partly sector-driven rather than idiosyncratic — a mild positive. Earnings are 47 days out (no imminent binary event veto), but that window creates a 15-30 day uncertainty premium headwind. The macro backdrop is mildly adverse: 10Y at 4.75% is above the ~4.5% headwind threshold, and the 5Y forward inflation rate is running 1.7σ above trend, pressuring rate-sensitive industrials.
HON has dropped 21.2% from its 30-day high, a significant dip that would normally qualify as a mean-reversion candidate (+1), and the Industrials sector is underperforming the broader market (-6.42pts vs SPY over 30 days), suggesting the drop is at least partly sector-wide (+1). However, earnings are 37 days away, applying a meaningful headwind (-1), and options flow is decisively bearish with a P/C ratio of 2.18 and elevated put volume (z=+0.88) while call volume is below average (z=-0.57), a negative signal (-1). No fundamental impairment is evident from filings, and the 8-K lacks material adverse metrics, so the company appears financially sound. The net signal score is approximately 0, with no cluster insider buys or unusual call flow to push it into buy territory.
PODD is down 23.1% from its 30-day high — a significant drawdown that would normally qualify as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). However, the signal stack is thin: no insider buying, no options flow data, no news headlines, and no financial metrics in the filings to confirm fundamental soundness. The Health Care sector is underperforming SPY on both 5d and 30d bases (+1 for sector-wide weakness rather than idiosyncratic), and today's broad market is mildly positive. Against these positives, the 10Y yield at 4.83% is a structural headwind for a growth-oriented medtech name like PODD (-1), and earnings are 54 days away — not a veto but adding uncertainty. Net signal score is approximately +1, which is marginal and does not clear the bar for a buy without a strong insider or options catalyst.
DFS (Discover Financial Services) is down 17.9% from its 30-day high, which qualifies as a meaningful dip and a mean-reversion candidate (+1). The Financials sector is underperforming the broader market (rank 6/11 by 30d rel-strength, -3.84pts vs SPY over 30 days), suggesting the drop is at least partly sector-wide rather than purely idiosyncratic (+1). No earnings are visible in the near-term window (+1), providing a clean 90-day runway. However, the evidence stack is thin: no insider buying, no options flow data, no recent filings, and no news headlines to confirm or deny a fundamental catalyst. On the negative side, the 10Y yield at 4.80% is a meaningful structural headwind for a consumer credit/lending name like Discover (-1), and the T5YIFR printing 1.6σ above trend signals elevated inflation expectations that are rate-sensitive (-1). Today's broad market tone is risk-off (SPY -0.59%, VXX +3.28%, IEF -0.78%), adding near-term pressure. Net signal score: +3 positive, -2 negative = +1, which is marginal and does not meet the +2 threshold for a confident buy, and lacks the cluster insider buy or unusual call flow needed to override a marginal score.
WYNN is down 15.9% from its 30-day high, which qualifies as a meaningful mean-reversion candidate (+1). The sector (Consumer Discretionary) is underperforming the market on both 5-day and 30-day bases (-2.31 and -2.05 pts vs SPY), suggesting the drop is at least partially sector-driven rather than purely idiosyncratic (+1). No fundamental deterioration is evident from the sparse SEC filings (no metrics reported, no red flags), and no going-concern or guidance-cut language is present. However, the signal stack is weakened considerably by: the high 10Y yield of 4.75% which is a structural headwind for a capital-intensive, debt-heavy gaming company (-1); earnings are 63 days away — not imminent but the consensus EPS of $1.01 creates a binary event risk within the trade window (-0 per framework but reduces confidence); no insider buying activity; no options flow to confirm informed conviction; and the T5YIFR inflation forward reading is 1.7σ above trend, a macro headwind for rate-sensitive names (-1). Net signal score: approximately +2 - 2 = 0, a marginal case without the confirming insider or options signals needed to push a buy.
LRCX is down 19.2% from its 30-day high, a meaningful dip that qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). The Information Technology sector is ranked 2nd of 11 by 30-day relative strength and is outperforming SPY (+3.75pts over 30 days), suggesting this is a single-stock or sub-sector idiosyncratic pullback rather than broad sector weakness (-1). Earnings are 36 days away, which avoids an imminent binary event but still introduces meaningful uncertainty premium (-1). No fundamental deterioration is evident from the 10-K or 8-K filings (metrics are sparse but no red flags), and the CLO insider sale of 5,000 shares appears isolated and likely routine (not clustered, -0 per framework). The 10-year yield at 4.95% is a structural headwind for a growth/duration-sensitive semiconductor equipment name (-1), and the yield curve is near 2σ below trend. Net signal score is approximately -1 to 0, placing this in marginal territory with no strong positive catalyst (no cluster buys, no unusual call flow). Adjusting the base rate of ~57% downward for macro headwinds and the idiosyncratic nature of the drop yields a probability just below the buy threshold.
IP is down 21.3% from its 30-day high, which qualifies as a meaningful mean-reversion candidate (+1), and the Materials sector is underperforming the broader market (ranked 6/11 by 30-day relative strength, -2.57pts vs SPY over 30 days), suggesting the drop is at least partly sector-wide rather than purely idiosyncratic (+1). However, earnings are 49 days away, which introduces a meaningful uncertainty headwind (-1), and the options flow shows a bearish P/C ratio of 1.23 with put volume exceeding call volume (-1 for unusual put pressure). The 10Y yield at 4.78% is a structural headwind for materials/capital-intensive names (-1), and there are no insider cluster buys or unusual call activity to anchor a bullish thesis. Macro signals are mixed-to-negative: elevated forward inflation expectations (T5YIFR 1.8σ above trend) add rate-sensitivity risk, and today's broad market tone is risk-off (SPY -0.46%, IWM -1.35%, VXX +1.70%). No fundamental deterioration is evident from available filings, but the absence of financial metrics in the 10-Q limits visibility into the company's health.
ALB is down 15.2% from its 30-day high, which qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate, but the signal stack is mixed. Options flow is modest and below average on both sides (call z=-0.23, put z=-0.65), offering no strong directional signal; there is no insider cluster buy (only a routine equity award to the CAO). The sector (Materials/XLB) is underperforming SPY on both 5- and 30-day windows, suggesting the dip is sector-wide rather than idiosyncratic, which is mildly supportive. However, the 10Y yield at 4.80% (above the ~4.5% headwind threshold) is a structural drag for a capital-intensive, growth-sensitive materials name like ALB, and the 5-year forward inflation rate printing 1.6σ above trend adds rate uncertainty. Earnings are 54 days away (no imminent binary risk), which is a clean runway positive, but no fundamental metrics are available from the sparse 10-Q/8-K filings to confirm or deny balance sheet health.
BKNG is a fundamentally sound travel platform with no visible fundamental deterioration in its most recent filings (empty metrics in 10-Q/8-K, no red flags). The 20.2% drop from the 30-day high is a meaningful mean-reversion candidate, but several headwinds offset that: earnings are 47 days away (a -1 headwind), insider activity shows clustered selling by senior executives (not classic 10b5-1 noise given the volume and number of distinct insiders selling), options flow is modestly put-heavy (P/C 1.18, put z-score elevated at +1.14), the 10Y yield at 4.78% is a structural headwind for a consumer discretionary growth name, and the sector is only modestly underperforming SPY. Net signal score: +1 (drop magnitude >=15%) +1 (sector underperforming) -1 (earnings 15-30 days away — actually 47 days, so no penalty, but earnings uncertainty is approaching) -1 (put flow elevated) -1 (insider sales clustered across multiple executives) -1 (high 10Y yield >4.5%) = net -2, which does not support a buy despite no hard veto.
Watching
(0)Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Watching
(0)Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Nothing on the watchlist right now.
Relevant news
(30)Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
Relevant news
(30)Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
Micron Drops Nearly 6% as Its $50 Billion Forecast Meets AI Spending Doubts
Bitcoin Climbs as AI Slowdown Calls Sink Nvidia, Intel and Other Chip Stocks
Wall Street hit by tech sell-off after AI bosses push for slowdown
Wall Street hit by tech sell-off after AI bosses push for slowdown
Is Verizon Stock Counting On Money That Has Not Arrived Yet?
Dell Drops Over 7% as AI Servers Pass Half of Infrastructure Revenue
APH is Overvalued at 27.17X P/E: Should You Still Buy the Stock?
Oracle Stock Falls After Ellison Scraps Plan To Sell Up To $7.5 Billion In Stock
Alger Russell Innovation Index Updates for Third Quarter 2026
Alger Russell Innovation Index Updates for Third Quarter 2026
Alger Russell Innovation Index Updates for Third Quarter 2026
Tetra Tech's Board Approves Additional Share Buyback Program
Macro & geopolitical context
(15)High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.
Macro & geopolitical context
(15)High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.
- Sep 14, 12:53 PMpolicy · severity 3/5
Trump calls AI the greatest economic development engine in history.
- Sep 14, 11:56 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
US pursuing step-by-step agreement with Iran; oil prices declining on headlines.
- Sep 14, 10:18 AMcompany · severity 3/5
Major AI labs call for slower development pace citing risks and economic pressures.
- Sep 14, 8:39 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
Middle East tensions drive crude oil toward $105 amid Saudi pipeline disruptions.
- Sep 14, 8:14 AMmarket · severity 3/5
AI semiconductor and infrastructure stocks face heavy selling pressure ahead of Monday market open.
- Sep 14, 7:59 AMmarket · severity 3/5
AI stocks decline on safety concerns; analyst provides guidance on positioning.
- Sep 14, 7:31 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Central bank week begins with USD strength and equity market pressure.
- Sep 14, 6:55 AMpolicy · severity 4/5
Fed rate hike bets surge in September amid AI stock weakness and oil surge.
- Sep 14, 6:38 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
EU imposes 24-72 hour vulnerability reporting requirements on crypto wallet providers.
- Sep 14, 6:15 AMmarket · severity 3/5
Crypto outperforms as calls for slower AI development pressure technology sector stocks.
- Sep 14, 5:53 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
India's August CPI rises to 4.82%, signaling potential central bank rate hike.
- Sep 14, 5:12 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Bitcoin faces selloff risk ahead of FOMC decision and CLARITY Act vote.
- Sep 14, 5:00 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Bitcoin volatility expected ahead of Senate CLARITY Act vote and Fed rate decision.
- Sep 14, 4:55 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Saudi crown prince and US CENTCOM chief discuss Houthi escalation response.
- Sep 14, 4:29 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Fed, BOE, and BOJ interest-rate decisions set to influence cryptocurrency markets this week.
Recent runs
(20)Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
Recent runs
(20)Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
- Sep 14, 1:20 PM130 trigger(s) [128 cached, 2 Claude], 18 bought, 112 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 96 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Sep 14, 12:20 PM128 trigger(s) [127 cached, 1 Claude], 18 bought, 110 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 94 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Sep 14, 11:20 AM123 trigger(s) [122 cached, 1 Claude], 18 bought, 105 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 89 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Sep 14, 10:21 AM136 trigger(s) [126 cached, 10 Claude], 19 bought, 117 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 98 watch-listed. Exits: 1.
- Sep 14, 10:01 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Sep 14, 9:20 AM128 trigger(s) [107 cached, 21 Claude], 20 bought, 108 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 88 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Sep 14, 8:37 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 2 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Sep 14, 6:00 AM[stage] 142 trigger(s) [141 cached, 1 Claude], 18 bought, 124 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 99 watch-listed. Exits: 1. (staged 0 open / 1 close intent to pending_orders)
- Sep 11, 3:20 PM142 trigger(s) [140 cached, 2 Claude], 18 bought, 124 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 99 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Sep 11, 2:20 PM142 trigger(s) [142 cached, 0 Claude], 19 bought, 123 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 99 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Sep 11, 1:21 PM140 trigger(s) [139 cached, 1 Claude], 19 bought, 121 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 97 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Sep 11, 12:20 PM143 trigger(s) [143 cached, 0 Claude], 18 bought, 125 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 100 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Sep 11, 11:20 AM148 trigger(s) [131 cached, 17 Claude], 20 bought, 128 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 103 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Sep 11, 9:00 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Sep 10, 3:25 PM162 trigger(s) [125 cached, 37 Claude], 22 bought, 140 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 110 watch-listed. Exits: 2.
- Sep 9, 4:08 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Sep 9, 3:24 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 2 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Sep 9, 3:24 PM142 trigger(s) [105 cached, 37 Claude], 18 bought, 124 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 96 watch-listed. Exits: 2.
- Sep 9, 1:59 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 2 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Sep 8, 3:22 PM120 trigger(s) [113 cached, 7 Claude], 15 bought, 105 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 71 watch-listed. Exits: 0.