Scorecard
Head to head
Evolving prompt vs. frozen baseline
Open Positions
(54)Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.
Open Positions
(54)Every open position with the thesis logged at entry.
- 2 sh × $13.33 ($27 cost)$14.16$28+$1.65+6.19%
- 37 sh × $78.96 ($2,921 cost)$89.58$3,314+$392.98+13.45%
- 3 sh × $620.11 ($1,860 cost)$629.70$1,889+$28.77+1.55%
- 93 sh × $21.35 ($1,985 cost)$20.21$1,880−$105.55−5.32%
- 19 sh × $147.02 ($2,793 cost)$158.08$3,004+$210.19+7.52%
- 1 sh × $184.41 ($184 cost)$208.54$209+$24.13+13.08%
- 39 sh × $31.62 ($1,233 cost)$31.48$1,228−$5.65−0.46%
- 112 sh × $17.04 ($1,909 cost)$21.63$2,423+$513.72+26.91%
- 3 sh × $576.63 ($1,730 cost)$576.33$1,729−$0.89−0.05%
- 18 sh × $76.30 ($1,373 cost)$81.24$1,462+$88.83+6.47%
- 3 sh × $320.81 ($962 cost)$334.46$1,003+$40.95+4.25%
- 15 sh × $130.22 ($1,953 cost)$141.54$2,123+$169.85+8.70%
- 12 sh × $177.79 ($2,134 cost)$187.87$2,254+$120.86+5.66%
- 25 sh × $75.75 ($1,894 cost)$84.16$2,104+$210.19+11.10%
- 40 sh × $47.99 ($1,920 cost)$52.05$2,082+$162.29+8.45%
- 7 sh × $308.03 ($2,156 cost)$348.77$2,441+$285.18+13.23%
- 6 sh × $199.92 ($1,200 cost)$251.47$1,509+$309.32+25.79%
- 21 sh × $105.88 ($2,223 cost)$118.06$2,479+$255.89+11.51%
- 21 sh × $111.86 ($2,349 cost)$116.86$2,454+$104.93+4.47%
- 1 sh × $860.28 ($860 cost)$968.31$968+$108.03+12.56%
- 2 sh × $490.74 ($981 cost)$462.76$926−$55.96−5.70%
- 12 sh × $233.44 ($2,801 cost)$235.91$2,831+$29.64+1.06%
- 3 sh × $517.81 ($1,553 cost)$505.37$1,516−$37.33−2.40%
- 16 sh × $135.34 ($2,165 cost)$146.76$2,348+$182.72+8.44%
- 3 sh × $339.87 ($1,020 cost)$404.94$1,215+$195.22+19.15%
- 7 sh × $302.06 ($2,114 cost)$316.94$2,219+$104.15+4.93%
- 16 sh × $114.42 ($1,831 cost)$124.20$1,987+$156.51+8.55%
- 2 sh × $470.80 ($942 cost)$462.00$924−$17.60−1.87%
- 1 sh × $1,036.57 ($1,037 cost)$1,257.72$1,258+$221.15+21.33%
- 27 sh × $73.20 ($1,976 cost)$80.61$2,176+$200.16+10.13%
- 9 sh × $224.89 ($2,024 cost)$267.85$2,411+$386.64+19.10%
- 73 sh × $24.82 ($1,812 cost)$26.05$1,902+$89.79+4.96%
- 22 sh × $108.77 ($2,393 cost)$137.69$3,029+$636.13+26.58%
- 12 sh × $143.47 ($1,722 cost)$153.24$1,839+$117.18+6.81%
- 31 sh × $85.13 ($2,639 cost)$91.43$2,834+$195.43+7.41%
- 5 sh × $302.29 ($1,511 cost)$290.71$1,454−$57.90−3.83%
- 24 sh × $72.68 ($1,744 cost)$76.46$1,835+$90.72+5.20%
- 2 sh × $532.86 ($1,066 cost)$537.79$1,076+$9.86+0.93%
- 3 sh × $432.68 ($1,298 cost)$450.00$1,350+$51.96+4.00%
- 5 sh × $194.20 ($971 cost)$209.90$1,050+$78.48+8.08%
- 16 sh × $71.58 ($1,145 cost)$73.87$1,182+$36.64+3.20%
- 1 sh × $16.20 ($16 cost)$17.82$18+$1.62+10.02%
- 2 sh × $257.22 ($514 cost)$278.98$558+$43.53+8.46%
- 15 sh × $89.68 ($1,345 cost)$90.89$1,363+$18.15+1.35%
- 5 sh × $205.55 ($1,028 cost)$206.19$1,031+$3.17+0.31%
- 13 sh × $89.44 ($1,163 cost)$90.57$1,177+$14.69+1.26%
- 31 sh × $43.98 ($1,363 cost)$47.11$1,460+$96.88+7.11%
- 3 sh × $403.92 ($1,212 cost)$406.29$1,219+$7.11+0.59%
- 4 sh × $317.09 ($1,268 cost)$343.44$1,374+$105.38+8.31%
- 9 sh × $192.37 ($1,731 cost)$203.19$1,829+$97.41+5.63%
- 4 sh × $274.97 ($1,100 cost)$266.77$1,067−$32.80−2.98%
- 2 sh × $428.06 ($856 cost)$406.86$814−$42.41−4.95%
- 10 sh × $112.60 ($1,126 cost)$119.35$1,194+$67.50+5.99%
- 3 sh × $305.51 ($917 cost)$333.58$1,001+$84.21+9.19%
Closed Positions
(110)Every position this agent has closed, win or lose. Click any to see why it was opened and closed.
Closed Positions
(110)Every position this agent has closed, win or lose. Click any to see why it was opened and closed.
How this agent thinks
Plain English. Skip the jargon, read this first.
Identical to Agent IV at day 0 — same trigger (S&P 500 stock down 10% from 30-day high), same evidence packet, same sizing, same three exits (recover-to-30-day-high target, -8% stop, 90-day time stop). The difference is that the question it asks Claude can change. Each week the agent looks at which dip-buys worked and which didn't, then proposes refinements to the prompt to ask better questions next time. v3 methodology adds two more layers: (1) pyramiding — at +10% unrealized, the agent buys 50% more of a winning position; (2) re-entry — if the agent has previously stopped out of a name and the price has since recovered above the original entry, Claude is told about it explicitly and can choose to reconsider. The match-up vs Agent IV isolates the effect of evolution; the match-up vs Agent VIII isolates the effect of peer awareness.
Universe: S&P 500 starter set (same as Agent IV) · Capital: $100,000
Prompt performance
Closed-position stats broken out by the prompt version that authored each buy.
| Prompt | Trades | W / L / S | Win rate | Avg P/L % | Total P/L | Avg hold | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v2 | 48 | 46 / 2 / 0 | 95.8% | +11.51% | +$1,312 | 29.3d | May 15, 2026 → Jun 29, 2026 |
| v5 | 47 | 35 / 10 / 2 | 77.8% | +5.36% | +$2,702 | 13.8d | May 18, 2026 → Jun 26, 2026 |
| v6 | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0% | -3.55% | -$1 | 7d | May 28, 2026 → Jun 4, 2026 |
| v7 | 14 | 2 / 12 / 0 | 14.3% | -4.55% | -$1,673 | 11.5d | Jun 1, 2026 → Jun 22, 2026 |
Recent activity
(24)What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.
Recent activity
(24)What the agent has been looking at and what it's done about it.
ORCL's most recent 10-Q shows strong fundamentals: EPS of $3.15, net income of $9.0B, and operating cash flow of $14.7B, with $10.8B in cash — no signs of fundamental deterioration. The 39.1% drop from the 30-day high is extreme and would normally be a strong mean-reversion signal (+1), and macro conditions are broadly neutral-to-mildly supportive with VIX at the 70th percentile (not a hard veto), a normal 2s10s curve (+0.30pp), and broad market tone positive today. However, earnings are 73 days away (no veto, no penalty), there are no insider buys, no options flow data, and critically the magnitude of the drop (nearly 40%) without any clear news catalyst or sector-wide explanation raises concern about an idiosyncratic, undisclosed issue. The absence of any news explaining the drop, combined with zero insider buying activity and no options signal, prevents high conviction — the signal score is modest (drop magnitude +1, no earnings within 30 days +1, macro neutral +1, no insider buys 0, no unusual call flow 0, possible idiosyncratic issue -1) yielding a net score of ~+2, but the lack of any corroborating signals on a drop this large tempers conviction significantly.
SMCI is down 40.4% from its 30-day high — an extreme move that historically signals either a major fundamental event or severe sentiment deterioration, not routine sector noise. Critically, the evidence stack is almost entirely empty: no news headlines to explain or contextualize the drop, no insider buying (zero Form 4 activity), no options flow signal, and three 8-K filings with no disclosed financial metrics in the past 30 days. The opaque 8-K filings combined with a 40%+ collapse and complete absence of insider support raises serious concern that an undisclosed fundamental impairment (e.g., guidance cut, investigation, or material adverse event) may be driving the drop. SMCI has a well-documented history of accounting irregularities and SEC scrutiny, making an unexplained crash without any bullish counter-signal particularly alarming. Net signal score: +1 (drop magnitude >=15%, no earnings imminent) vs. -2 (idiosyncratic drop while sector outperforms 30d, elevated VIX at 73rd percentile) = net -1, which does not support a buy.
INTU is down a steep 36.9% from its 30-day high with no visible fundamental impairment — no headlines, no negative 8-K disclosures, and no insider selling cluster, suggesting the drop is macro/sector-driven rather than idiosyncratic. However, earnings are 51 days away (within 15-30 day headwind window would not apply, but uncertainty premium still looms), and the 8-K filed June 11 with empty metrics is ambiguous. Signal score is modestly positive: the large drop magnitude without fundamental cause (+1), no imminent earnings (+1), and sector outperforming SPY on 30d basis (-1 idiosyncratic risk offset), with VIX near 73rd percentile (near but not over 75th, neutral), yielding a net near +1. Options flow is unremarkable (P/C 0.91, both volumes well below z=0), and no insider buying cluster is present — the two strongest positive signals are absent. With a net score of roughly +1 and no cluster buy or unusual call flow to override, the evidence does not clear the bar for a buy.
CME is a fundamentally sound exchange operator with durable earnings power, and the ~24.8% drop from its 30-day high is substantial. However, the options flow is a significant red flag: put volume is highly elevated (z=+3.45) with an above-1.0 P/C ratio flagged as UNUSUAL on a dipping stock — this is an informed bearish signal, not a mean-reversion setup. The sector (Financials) is outperforming the broader market meaningfully (+5.78pts vs SPY over 30 days), suggesting the drop is idiosyncratic to CME rather than sector-wide noise. There are no insider cluster buys, no fundamental disclosures explaining the drop (8-K filings have no metrics), and VIX is elevated at the 77th percentile, adding macro uncertainty.
ENPH has dropped 36% from its 30-day high, a significant move that would normally flag it as a mean-reversion candidate. However, the evidence stack is notably thin: no news headlines, no insider buying, no earnings catalyst, and only modest options flow (call volume z-score of -0.82 is below average, not "unusual"). The sector (XLK) is underperforming SPY on a 5-day basis (-1.15pts), suggesting some broader tech pressure, but ENPH is a solar/clean-energy name within IT and may be experiencing idiosyncratic pressure. The macro environment is mildly supportive — VIX at 54th percentile (not elevated), 10Y inflation expectations 2.0σ below trend, and a normal 2s10s curve — but the 10Y at 4.51% is a headwind for a long-duration, growth-sensitive name like ENPH. Net signal score: drop magnitude >=15% (+1), no earnings in 30 days (+1), sector underperforming (+1), macro neutral-to-improving (+1), offset by 10Y above 4.5% (-1), below-average call AND put volume (no unusual options signal, 0), no insider activity (0), today's broad market sell-off with QQQ -3.29% adding near-term pressure (-1). Net: +2, but the absence of any confirming signal beyond price decline, combined with ENPH's solar-specific sensitivity to rates and policy risk, warrants a below-threshold probability.
ACN triggered a hard veto: today's 10-Q and 8-K (period ending May 2026) accompanied an earnings report showing a Q3 revenue miss and a forward revenue guidance cut, which constitute fundamental deterioration under Step 1 rules. The ~35% drop from the 30-day high is therefore not noise but a direct repricing of impaired future revenue expectations. Compounding this, options flow shows unusually elevated put volume (z=6.70) alongside call volume (z=4.21), yielding a P/C ratio >1 — a net bearish signal from the options market. While the IT sector is outperforming (a mild negative for a single-stock thesis), insider activity reflects only small equity award grants (not open-market purchases), providing no cluster-buy offset. Macro conditions are mildly supportive (VIX at 69th percentile, QQQ +2.38%) but insufficient to overcome the fundamental veto.
TEAM is down 34% from its 30-day high, which is a massive move that would normally be a strong mean-reversion candidate. However, the signal stack is very thin: there are no news headlines, no recent SEC filings, and no options flow to explain or contextualize the drop. The only insider activity is a cluster of sales by the CRO (5 transactions over 5 days totaling ~$845K), which registers as a meaningful negative signal even if potentially 10b5-1 driven. The IT sector shows mild relative strength vs. SPY over 30 days (+4.20pts), suggesting this is likely an idiosyncratic single-stock drop rather than sector-wide weakness — a negative signal. VIX at the 73rd percentile is near but just below the elevated threshold, and today's QQQ is down 1.38%, indicating tech headwinds. With no positive confirming signals (no cluster buys, no unusual call flow, no fundamental clarity), the drop magnitude alone is insufficient to support a buy.
ON Semiconductor has dropped 32.8% from its 30-day high, which is a large move that typically qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). There are no earnings imminent and no visible fundamental deterioration from filings or news (+1 for no near-term earnings). However, the evidence stack is thin: no insider buying, no options flow, no recent filings, and no news to contextualize the drop. The IT sector (XLK) is showing mild 30-day outperformance vs. SPY (+4.20pts), suggesting this may be idiosyncratic weakness rather than sector-wide selling (-1). Today's macro tone is risk-off (QQQ -1.38%, SPY -0.72%, VXX +1.33%), and VIX at the 73rd percentile is approaching elevated territory (-1 soft). The 2s10s spread is slightly positive and T10YIE printing 2.1σ below trend suggests falling inflation expectations, which is mildly supportive for duration-sensitive semis. Net signal score: approximately +1 (drop magnitude +1, no imminent earnings +1, sector outperforming -1, near-elevated VIX -1), which is marginal without a confirming insider or options signal, leading to a rebound probability just below the buy threshold.
ALB (Albemarle) is down 32.5% from its 30-day high — a large drop that normally qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). There are no earnings imminent, providing a clean 90-day runway (+1), and no hard veto conditions (no fundamental deterioration flags in the sparse 8-K, no going-concern language, no guidance cut identified). However, signal scoring is weak: no insider buying (0 Form 4s), no unusual call flow (call z-score is -0.44, actually below average), put volume is elevated with a z-score of +1.61 (-1 for unusual puts on a dipping stock), VIX at the 73rd percentile is near but just under the 75th percentile threshold (marginal), and the sector (Materials, ranked 8 of 11 by 30d rel-strength) is underperforming (+1). The T10YIE at 2.2 — 2.1σ below trend — signals falling inflation expectations, which is a headwind for lithium/commodity pricing that is core to ALB's business. Net signal score: approximately +2, but the elevated put flow, absence of insider support, and commodity pricing headwinds meaningfully cap upside conviction. The lack of any news context for a 32.5% drop is concerning — this magnitude of decline typically reflects fundamental or sector-specific deterioration not yet captured in visible filings.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] HPE is down 32% from its 30-day high, a substantial drop that qualifies as a strong mean-reversion candidate (+1) with no identifiable fundamental deterioration in the available 10-Q/8-K filings (+1 for no guidance cut/going-concern language). Options flow is constructive with a low put/call ratio of 0.35 and call volume materially exceeding puts, suggesting informed buyers are not fleeing (+1 unusual call tilt). Earnings are 64 days away, providing a clean runway without an imminent binary event (+1). These positives are partially offset by: no insider buying activity (0), VIX at the 73rd percentile (near but just below the -1 threshold), a mildly negative broad-market tone today (QQQ -1.38%, SPY -0.72%), and the IT sector showing weak 5-day relative strength (-3.02 vs SPY). Net signal score is approximately +3, supporting a marginal buy with tempered conviction given macro uncertainty and the absence of insider confirmation.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] [not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] AKAM has dropped 31.8% from its 30-day high with no visible fundamental catalyst — no recent earnings warnings, guidance cuts, or adverse SEC filings detected. The options flow is bullish-skewed (P/C ratio of 0.50, call volume at a modestly positive z-score vs. puts at a negative z-score), and no earnings event is visible in the window, providing a clean 90-day runway. The IT sector is outperforming SPY on both 5d and 30d bases, which flags this as a likely single-stock idiosyncratic move rather than sector-driven selling, but the magnitude of the drop (>30%) without any disclosed fundamental impairment makes it a mean-reversion candidate. Net signal score: +1 (drop magnitude) +1 (no earnings) +1 (mild positive call flow) -1 (single-stock drop while sector outperforms) = +2, supporting a marginal buy.
CTSH is down 32.1% from its 30-day high — a very sharp single-stock decline — while the IT sector (XLK) is actually outperforming SPY on both 5d and 30d bases (+5.87pts over 30 days), strongly indicating this is an idiosyncratic, company-specific problem rather than sector-wide weakness. The options flow is heavily skewed bearish (P/C ratio of 1.97, put volume z=+0.50 vs call volume z=-0.20), suggesting informed participants are positioning for further downside. The 8-K filed 2026-06-03 lacks disclosed metrics, raising concern about an undisclosed material event that may have triggered the drop. Insider activity shows only a routine tax-withholding 'F' transaction and an options exercise — no cluster buying signal. Net signal score: sector outperforming while single stock implodes (-1, idiosyncratic), unusual put volume on a dipping stock (-1), large 32% drop without a clear publicly disclosed fundamental cause is ambiguous rather than positive, no cluster insider buy, no unusual call flow. Net score is approximately -2, well below the buy threshold.
NOW (ServiceNow) is down 29.4% from its 30-day high, which is a substantial drop for a high-quality enterprise SaaS franchise with no visible fundamental deterioration — no recent SEC filings, no guidance cuts, and no earnings imminent. Signal scoring yields a modest net positive: the large drop magnitude (≥15%) earns +1, no earnings in the visible window earns +1, and sector relative strength is actually positive (IT +4.20pts vs SPY over 30d), which cuts against a sector-wide dip narrative and flags this as more idiosyncratic (-1). No insider buying, no options flow, and no confirming signals are available, leaving the net score near +1 — marginal territory. The macro backdrop is mixed: VIX at the 73rd percentile is just under the elevated threshold, the 10Y at 4.40% is below the 4.5% headwind level (neutral), and the inflation expectation print (T10YIE at 2.2, 2.1σ below trend) is actually favorable for long-duration growth names like NOW. However, the sector's negative 5-day relative strength (-3.02 vs SPY) and the large negative options flow proxy (-$46M) add caution.
FOX is down 25.9% from its 30-day high with no news, no recent SEC filings, and no insider activity to explain the drop, suggesting this may be sector/macro-driven noise rather than a fundamental impairment. The Communication Services sector (XLC) is the weakest sector by 30-day relative strength (rank 11/11, -7.27pts vs SPY), which awards a positive signal for sector-wide weakness rather than idiosyncratic deterioration; no earnings are visible in the near-term window (+1 clean runway). However, the signal stack is thin: options flow is subdued with below-average volumes (call z=-0.64, put z=-0.39) offering no unusual call signal, there are zero insider buys, and VIX at the 73rd percentile is near the elevated threshold (-1). The 10Y at 4.40% is below the 4.5% headwind threshold, roughly neutral, but inflation expectations (T10YIE at 2.2, 2.1σ below trend) suggest a deflationary/growth-scare macro backdrop that is mixed for media names. Net signal score lands near +1 (sector weakness +1, drop magnitude +1, no earnings +1, no cluster buy, no unusual calls, near-elevated VIX -1), which is marginal and does not clear the bar for a confident buy without a strong anchor signal.
FOXA is down 28.6% from its 30-day high — a substantial drop that would normally be a strong mean-reversion candidate. However, the evidence stack here is notably thin: no SEC filings, no insider activity, and news headlines are generic with no FOXA-specific catalyst. The options flow shows below-average call AND put volume (both negative z-scores), suggesting no informed conviction on either side. The Communication Services sector is underperforming SPY by 4.65pts over 5 days, which is a mild positive (sector-wide rather than purely idiosyncratic), and no imminent earnings provides a clean runway. However, the sector flow proxy is deeply negative (-$19M), macro is neutral-to-soft, and the 28.6% drop without any identifiable news catalyst is concerning — it likely reflects an undisclosed event or structural re-rating not yet in our data window.
EPAM is down 27.6% from its 30-day high, a significant drop that qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). There are no imminent earnings in the visible window (+1), and no fundamental deterioration signals from the recent 8-K (no guidance cuts or going-concern language). However, the options flow shows an unusual P/C ratio of 1.14 with put volume slightly elevated relative to call volume z-scores — call volume is unusually high (z=2.01, +1) but put volume is not unusual (z=-0.21, neutral). The sector (IT/XLK) has 30d outperformance vs SPY (+4.20pts), meaning EPAM's drop appears idiosyncratic rather than sector-wide (-1). There are no insider purchases to support the thesis (0), and VIX at the 73rd percentile is approaching elevated territory (-1 borderline). The macro backdrop shows falling inflation expectations (T10YIE 2.1σ below trend), which is modestly favorable for long-duration/growth names like EPAM (+0.5 partial). Net signal score: approximately +1.5, which is marginal. The unusual call volume is a genuine positive signal, but the idiosyncratic nature of the drop (sector outperforming while EPAM falls sharply) and absence of insider buying temper conviction below the buy threshold.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] QCOM is down 27.1% from its 30-day high with no visible fundamental deterioration in the available SEC filings (the 8-K filed June 24 has no adverse metrics flagged), no imminent earnings, and no going-concern or guidance-cut language. The drop magnitude (>=15%) qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate, and no earnings within 30 days provides a clean runway. The IT sector has modestly outperformed SPY on a 30-day basis (+4.20pts), suggesting the drop may be more single-stock or broader tech-rotation driven rather than a sector-wide collapse. Scoring: +1 (drop >=15%), +1 (no earnings within 30 days), -1 (sector outperforming, suggesting idiosyncratic pressure on QCOM), -1 (VIX at 73rd percentile, near elevated threshold), net ~0; anchoring near the base rate of ~55% and pulling down slightly given sparse confirming signals (no insider buys, no unusual call flow, negative sector-relative flow proxy today).
WDC has dropped 26.7% from its 30-day high, which is a meaningful mean-reversion candidate signal. However, the signal stack is weak: there are no insider purchases, no options flow data, and the only analyst action in the window is a downgrade from Fox Advisors (sentiment -0.40). The positive Micron/AI storage demand headline is encouraging but sector-level tailwinds don't offset the idiosyncratic downgrade pressure. Re-entry context further complicates the picture — the stock is trading above the prior stop-out level but there is no clear new fundamental catalyst (8-K filings carry no metrics) to ground a re-entry thesis beyond mean reversion. The sector (XLK) is actually outperforming SPY on a 30-day basis (+4.20pts), which means this drop is more likely stock-specific rather than sector-wide noise, a mild negative signal.
Wanted to buy but only $26.01 cash available; close=$33.01.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] ADBE is down 26.4% from its 30-day high — a significant drop for a blue-chip software name — with no available fundamental deterioration signals in the 10-Q or 8-K filings (metrics are empty, no guidance cut or going-concern language visible). No earnings veto applies as the next print is 73 days away, providing a clean runway. Options flow is bullish with a P/C ratio of 0.46 and call volume at a modestly positive z-score (+0.42), while put volume is below average (z=-0.40), suggesting the market is not aggressively hedging further downside. The magnitude of the drop (≥15%) supports a mean-reversion thesis in the absence of a fundamental cause.
DOW is down 26.9% from its 30-day high, a meaningful drop that qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). The sector (Materials/XLB) is underperforming the broader market on both 5d and 30d bases (-0.68 and -1.29 vs. SPY), suggesting the drop is sector-wide rather than idiosyncratic (+1). Earnings are 120 days away, providing a clean runway (+1). Options flow is modestly bullish with a P/C ratio of 0.58 and slightly positive call z-score, but not at an "unusual" threshold that would warrant a full +1. However, VIX is at the 77th percentile of its trailing year, a soft negative (-1), and the 10Y yield at 4.50% is right at the elevated threshold, creating a structural headwind for the capital-intensive, leverage-sensitive chemicals sector (-1). No insider activity and no recent SEC filings provide no incremental positive signal. Net signal score: roughly +3 positives, -2 negatives = +1, marginal territory. Without a cluster insider buy or truly unusual call flow to confirm conviction, this sits just below the threshold to trigger a buy.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] AVGO is down 26.3% from its 30-day high, a significant dip without clear fundamental impairment — no guidance cuts, covenant breaches, or going-concern language in recent filings. News flow is broadly positive, highlighted by the Broadcom/OpenAI Jalapeño AI chip launch (sentiment 0.40-0.45), billionaire accumulation of ~196K shares, and multiple bullish analyst pieces on custom AI chip demand. Earnings are 65 days away, providing a clean runway for mean reversion, and the macro backdrop shows declining inflation expectations (T10YIE at 2.1σ below trend), which is favorable for long-duration tech names. Net signal score: drop magnitude ≥15% (+1), no earnings within 30 days (+1), macro neutral-to-improving on inflation (+1), partially offset by elevated P/C ratio of 1.25 suggesting some hedging (-1) and VIX near 73rd percentile (borderline, not penalized) = net +2, supporting a buy.
PVH has dropped 26.2% from its 30-day high, a significant move that qualifies as a mean-reversion candidate (+1). No hard vetoes fire: no imminent earnings (next print is 56 days away, +1), no SEC filing metrics reveal guidance cuts or going-concern language, and the sector decline is broad (Consumer Discretionary ranks 9/11 by 30-day relative strength, underperforming the market, +1). Macro context is mildly supportive with inflation expectations (T10YIE) running 2.1σ below trend, which is a soft positive for consumer names, and the 2s10s spread is mildly positive (+0.31pp). Against these positives, there are no insider buys, no unusual call flow, no options data at all, and VIX at 73rd percentile is near the elevated threshold (not quite -1 but a drag on conviction). Net signal score is approximately +3 (drop magnitude, no near-term earnings, sector underperformance) offset by missing insider/options confirmation (-1 for absence of corroborating signals), yielding a marginal-to-moderate buy case. The lack of any confirming insider or options flow prevents a high-conviction call, holding the probability just below the 0.50 buy trigger.
[not executed — reserve_floor_or_cash] FSLR is down 25.5% from its 30-day high with no fundamental deterioration visible (no negative 10-Q/8-K filings, no guidance cuts, no fraud allegations), satisfying the mean-reversion candidate criterion for a drop ≥15% without identifiable fundamental cause (+1). Options flow is notably bullish with unusual call volume (z=+2.68) on a dipping stock — a meaningful informed-buying signal (+1) — while put flow is subdued (z=-0.30). No earnings are visible in the forward window, providing a clean 90-day runway (+1). VIX at the 73rd percentile is just below the elevated threshold, and the 10Y yield at 4.40% is below the 4.5% structural headwind level, making macro mildly neutral rather than a hard negative. The sector (XLK) shows 30-day relative outperformance vs. SPY (+4.20pts), which slightly diminishes the "sector-wide dip" argument, though the 5-day underperformance (-3.02pts) suggests recent rotation pressure rather than idiosyncratic FSLR weakness. Net signal score: approximately +3, supporting a buy with moderate conviction, tempered by the absence of insider cluster buying and mixed macro.
Watching
(0)Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Watching
(0)Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Nothing on the watchlist right now.
Relevant news
(30)Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
Relevant news
(30)Recent headlines on tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
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Wall Street Just Supersized Its Price Target on Intel. Is the Stock Still Too Cheap?
Wall Street Just Supersized Its Price Target on Intel. Is the Stock Still Too Cheap?
Wall Street Just Supersized Its Price Target on Intel. Is the Stock Still Too Cheap?
Wall Street Just Supersized Its Price Target on Intel. Is the Stock Still Too Cheap?
Wall Street Just Supersized Its Price Target on Intel. Is the Stock Still Too Cheap?
Alphabet shares jump after joining Dow Jones Industrial Average
Alphabet shares jump after joining Dow Jones Industrial Average
Citi Just Slapped a Massive $2,500 Price Target on SanDisk. Here’s Why They’re So Bullish
ServiceNow’s New IBM Partnership: A Real Catalyst, or Just Software-Selloff Noise?
ServiceNow’s New IBM Partnership: A Real Catalyst, or Just Software-Selloff Noise?
Is International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Bitcoin ETFs see worst month of outflows as investors pile into AI trade
New AI Cold War?! Did Google Really ‘Throttle’ Zuckerberg’s AI Access?
New AI Cold War?! Did Google Really ‘Throttle’ Zuckerberg’s AI Access?
New AI Cold War?! Did Google Really ‘Throttle’ Zuckerberg’s AI Access?
Here's My Favorite Gold Investment With Its Price Down to $4,000 an Ounce
Alphabet Adds $168 Billion on Dow Debut as Indexes Shake Off Volatility
Macro & geopolitical context
(15)High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.
Macro & geopolitical context
(15)High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe.
- Jun 29, 12:33 PMpolicy · severity 3/5
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits lowest level since 1983, affecting crude oil prices.
- Jun 29, 10:27 AMpolicy · severity 3/5
Kalshi traders predict upcoming jobs report will miss Wall Street consensus expectations.
- Jun 29, 7:43 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
US-Iran tensions ease; Comcast to spin off cable business, stocks rally.
Tickers:CMCSA - Jun 29, 7:40 AMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
U.S. envoys Kushner and Witkoff to meet Iran in Doha negotiations.
- Jun 29, 6:24 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
US-Iran de-escalation channels established ahead of diplomatic talks.
- Jun 29, 5:01 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
EU's MiCA deadline threatens unlicensed crypto firms with regulatory wipeout.
- Jun 29, 1:19 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
South Korea commits $518 billion to AI chips, outpacing crypto sector investment.
- Jun 29, 1:03 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Bitcoin declines to $59,700 as Iran tensions ease, benefiting equities over crypto.
- Jun 29, 12:31 AMpolicy · severity 4/5
BIS warns AI investment surge poses systemic financial risk via leveraged debt structures.
- Jun 29, 12:02 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Iranian cyberattacks on Israel escalated in 2026, raising regional security concerns.
- Jun 28, 9:48 PMpolicy · severity 4/5
BOJ aligns monetary policy with Japanese government's economic growth targets.
- Jun 28, 9:22 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
China blacklists 20 Japanese entities in dual-use export restrictions; normal trade unaffected.
- Jun 28, 8:40 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
US-Iran tensions ease temporarily; oil rallies while equities remain choppy.
- Jun 28, 8:31 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Iran tensions and Fed rate outlook impact Indian rupee and bond markets.
- Jun 28, 8:26 PMpolicy · severity 4/5
South Korea announces $650B AI and semiconductor investment plan signaling structural global chip demand.
Recent runs
(20)Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
Recent runs
(20)Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
- Jun 29, 6:05 AM[stage] 129 trigger(s) [79 cached, 50 Claude], 12 bought, 117 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 54 watch-listed. Exits: 4. (staged 0 open / 1 close intent to pending_orders)
- Jun 26, 6:04 AM[stage] 127 trigger(s) [96 cached, 31 Claude], 13 bought, 114 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 55 watch-listed. Exits: 4. (staged 0 open / 0 close intents to pending_orders)
- Jun 25, 6:04 AM[stage] 126 trigger(s) [125 cached, 1 Claude], 12 bought, 114 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 56 watch-listed. Exits: 2. (staged 0 open / 0 close intents to pending_orders)
- Jun 24, 5:05 PM126 trigger(s) [100 cached, 26 Claude], 12 bought, 114 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 56 watch-listed. Exits: 4.
- Jun 24, 6:04 AM[stage] 121 trigger(s) [84 cached, 37 Claude], 12 bought, 109 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 52 watch-listed. Exits: 1. (staged 0 open / 0 close intents to pending_orders)
- Jun 23, 7:51 AM126 trigger(s) [126 cached, 0 Claude], 12 bought, 114 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 47 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Jun 23, 6:03 AM[stage] 126 trigger(s) [126 cached, 0 Claude], 12 bought, 114 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 47 watch-listed. Exits: 0. (staged 0 open / 0 close intents to pending_orders)
- Jun 22, 6:21 PM126 trigger(s) [86 cached, 40 Claude], 12 bought, 114 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 47 watch-listed. Exits: 2.
- Jun 22, 5:06 PMClosed by janitor — finished_at was NULL after 4117s.
- Jun 22, 10:41 AMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
- Jun 22, 10:36 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Jun 22, 8:54 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 2 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Jun 22, 8:45 AMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
- Jun 22, 8:40 AMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Jun 22, 6:05 AM[stage] 113 trigger(s) [112 cached, 1 Claude], 5 bought, 108 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 47 watch-listed. Exits: 0. (staged 0 open / 0 close intents to pending_orders)
- Jun 18, 5:03 PM117 trigger(s) [83 cached, 34 Claude], 5 bought, 112 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 48 watch-listed. Exits: 0.
- Jun 18, 2:27 PMintraday stop sweep: no stops or targets breached
- Jun 18, 2:26 PMintraday stop sweep: closed 1 position(s) on breached stop/target
- Jun 18, 6:03 AM[stage] 127 trigger(s) [125 cached, 2 Claude], 4 bought, 123 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 55 watch-listed. Exits: 1. (staged 0 open / 1 close intent to pending_orders)
- Jun 17, 5:04 PM126 trigger(s) [61 cached, 65 Claude], 5 bought, 121 skipped, 0 analyze failures, 55 watch-listed. Exits: 3.