Agent IX — Bear Equity
Connecting…Short-only Weinstein Stage 4 trend follower — the bearish mirror of Agent I
Market: NASDAQ · Started with $100,000
- Equity
- $100,117
- Cash
- $60,629
- Positions
- $39,488
- Total P/L
- +$117
- Closed Trades
- 0
- Realized P/L
- +$0
- Win Rate
- —
How this agent thinks
Plain English. Skip the jargon, read this first.
The bearish mirror of Agent I. Picks 10 NASDAQ stocks at a time using the same Weinstein method, but only SHORTS Stage 4 setups — stocks in clear downtrends with their 30-week MA falling. The bet: stocks falling steadily for months tend to keep falling. Same -15% stop rule (in this case, +15% from entry, since shorts profit when price drops). Avoids names already 50%+ off their highs (the easy money's gone) unless the breakdown is fresh. Frozen rules. At day 365 we compare against Agent I: did long-only trend-following or short-only trend-following work better on the same names over the same year?
Methodology
The rules as a quant trader would describe them.
Short-only Weinstein Stage 4 trend follower. The bearish mirror of Agent I.
- Targets 10 simultaneous short positions, equal-weighted at $10,000 each. No longs ever.
- Shorts enter on Stage 4 declines: price below a falling 30-week (150-day) MA. Avoids stocks already >50% off their highs unless the breakdown is recent (last 10 days).
- Hard stops: +15% rally against the position, or a clean reclaim of the 30-week MA on volume. 365-day time stop.
- Per-run cap of 2 closures + 2 entries — same governance as Agent I. Methodology locked at day 0.
Universe: NASDAQ-listed, same 100-name starter set as Agents I + II · Capital: $100,000
Currently held (4)
Every position this agent has open right now, with the thesis it logged at entry.
- 220 sh @ $45.43 · current $45.43 · stop $52.24
Stage 4: close $45.43 < MA150 $54.78 (-17.1%), MA falling, 42.9% off 52w high, vol 1.33× avg
- 6 sh @ $1,579.93 · current $1,579.93 · stop $1,816.92
Stage 4: close $1579.93 < MA150 $1967.90 (-19.7%), MA falling, 40.3% off 52w high, vol 1.93× avg
- 159 sh @ $62.53 · current $62.29 · stop $71.91
Stage 4: close $62.53 < MA150 $76.49 (-18.2%), MA falling, 30.3% off 52w high, vol 0.04× avg
- 207 sh @ $48.09 · current $47.71 · stop $55.30
Stage 4: close $48.09 < MA150 $70.19 (-31.5%), MA falling, 44.7% off 52w high, vol 0.05× avg
Recent decisions — acted
Entries, exits, rotations the agent committed to.
Stage 4: close $1579.93 < MA150 $1967.90 (-19.7%), MA falling, 40.3% off 52w high, vol 1.93× avg
Stage 4: close $45.43 < MA150 $54.78 (-17.1%), MA falling, 42.9% off 52w high, vol 1.33× avg
Stage 4: close $48.09 < MA150 $70.19 (-31.5%), MA falling, 44.7% off 52w high, vol 0.05× avg
Stage 4: close $62.53 < MA150 $76.49 (-18.2%), MA falling, 30.3% off 52w high, vol 0.04× avg
Recently considered — skipped
Candidates the agent looked at and chose not to act on. The rationale tells you what it weighed.
Stage 4: close $91.82 < MA150 $95.09 (-3.4%), MA falling, 15.5% off 52w high, vol 1.09× avg
Stage 4: close $155.22 < MA150 $200.45 (-22.6%), MA falling, 45.6% off 52w high, vol 0.79× avg
Stage 4: close $24.90 < MA150 $28.16 (-11.6%), MA falling, 27.5% off 52w high, vol 0.84× avg
Stage 4: close $534.32 < MA150 $644.66 (-17.1%), MA falling, 30.6% off 52w high, vol 0.91× avg
Stage 4: close $308.66 < MA150 $332.93 (-7.3%), MA falling, 30.6% off 52w high, vol 1.59× avg
Stage 4: close $240.87 < MA150 $295.75 (-18.6%), MA falling, 43.1% off 52w high, vol 0.49× avg
Stage 4: close $160.56 < MA150 $190.71 (-15.8%), MA falling, 31.3% off 52w high, vol 0.77× avg
Stage 4: close $95.74 < MA150 $111.49 (-14.1%), MA falling, 31.3% off 52w high, vol 1.11× avg
Stage 4: close $166.34 < MA150 $206.40 (-19.4%), MA falling, 48.5% off 52w high, vol 0.76× avg
Stage 4: close $603.13 < MA150 $648.74 (-7.0%), MA falling, 24.3% off 52w high, vol 0.59× avg
Stage 4: close $155.47 < MA150 $200.45 (-22.4%), MA falling, 45.5% off 52w high, vol 0.05× avg
Stage 4: close $24.93 < MA150 $28.16 (-11.5%), MA falling, 27.5% off 52w high, vol 0.10× avg
Stage 4: close $1579.07 < MA150 $1967.90 (-19.8%), MA falling, 40.3% off 52w high, vol 0.17× avg
Stage 4: close $537.92 < MA150 $644.68 (-16.6%), MA falling, 30.1% off 52w high, vol 0.09× avg
Stage 4: close $160.22 < MA150 $190.71 (-16.0%), MA falling, 31.4% off 52w high, vol 0.07× avg
Watching (0)
Names this agent is tracking but hasn't entered.
Nothing on the watchlist right now.
Relevant news
Recent headlines on the tickers this agent holds, watches, or has evaluated.
By the numbers: Corporate profits haven't been this smoking hot in years
Circle CEO says AI-fueled layoffs are only the tip of the iceberg
Musk, Cook Set to Join Trump for Xi Summit, White House Says
As You Sow Files an Exempt Solicitation Statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission
Meta Platforms Taps Space Solar To Power Long Term AI Buildout
Meta, DoorDash Could Help Drive Stablecoins to $4 Trillion, Bitwise Investment Chief Says
'Little House on the Prairie' teaser introduces Independence
Nvidia CEO Huang not going to China during Trump visit, source says
Ciridae Raises $20 Million Led by Accel to Bring AI Transformation to Real Economy Businesses
'Sweet Magnolias' trio chase their dreams in Season 5 trailer
Wall Street Lunch: Does AT&T's History Help Ease AI Capex Fears?
Micron Benefits From Samsung Trouble; Buying Mania Hampered by Rising Oil
Smooth Commerce Appoints Jeff Mirmelstein as Chief Revenue Officer to Accelerate Enterprise Growth
Netflix sued by Texas for allegedly spying on children, addicting users
Why These 3 High-Flying Memory & Storage Stocks Will Rise Further
Macro & geopolitical context
High-severity world events that touch this agent's universe or asset class.
- May 13, 11:43 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
Crypto markets drop on Xi's Taiwan warning; Bitcoin falls below $80,000.
- May 13, 9:53 PMpolicy · severity 3/5
Japan considers supplementary budget for household fuel relief, pressuring JGB yields.
- May 13, 9:15 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Xi-Trump meeting expected to yield trade policy news; Japan considers fiscal stimulus.
- May 13, 8:32 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Iran tensions disrupt Air India; Lufthansa and Cathay gain market share advantage.
- May 13, 6:49 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
Trump and Xi negotiate trade truce amid Iran conflict tensions.
- May 13, 6:09 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
UK house prices fall fastest since 2023 amid Iran war and mortgage rate concerns.
- May 13, 4:25 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Rubio seeks Chinese leverage against Iran over Persian Gulf tensions.
- May 13, 2:52 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Drone strike targets Iranian opposition camp near Erbil, Iraq.
- May 13, 2:11 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Trump seeks China's diplomatic support on Iran policy amid geopolitical tensions.
- May 13, 1:39 PMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
US Senate blocks measure to limit Trump's Iran war powers; geopolitical tension persists.
- May 13, 12:36 PMgeopolitical · severity 4/5
Netanyahu meets UAE president during Iran conflict, raising Middle East tensions.
- May 13, 10:54 AMpolicy · severity 4/5
Treasury yields surge on hotter-than-expected producer price inflation data.
- May 13, 10:22 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Tata Motors warns of rising costs from Iran conflict amid strong profit performance.
- May 13, 10:01 AMgeopolitical · severity 3/5
Clarity Act amendments would reshape crypto regulation with uncertain legislative prospects.
- May 13, 7:30 AMpolicy · severity 4/5
US PPI significantly exceeds expectations, signaling persistent inflation pressures.
Closed trades (0)
Every position this agent has closed, win or lose.
No closed trades yet.
Recent runs
Every scheduled run for this agent. Most are no-op; the interesting ones show what changed.
- May 12, 5:01 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 2 entries. 10 candidates considered.
- May 12, 1:09 PMWeinstein run: 0 closes, 2 entries. 10 candidates considered.